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Cover Three: Week 5 Best College Football Bets

A look at the best bets to make for week five of the college football season

The matchups for week five are outstanding, with two games between a pair of Top 10 opponents and another matchup of Top 15 squads.

Notre Dame vs. Cincinnati - 2:30 PM ET

Money Line: Notre Dame +105 Cincinnati -125
Against The Spread: Notre Dame -5.5 Cincinnati -2.0
O/U: 50.5

The Cincinnati Bearcats are on the verge of playing the most important game in the history of the program as they invade South Bend on Saturday, and there’s something very weird about seeing the Fighting Irish as a two-point underdog in this matchup. Most of the early public money has come in on the Fighting Irish as it did last week when they dominated Wisconsin. 

The Bearcats pose a more formidable threat on offense and Desmond Ridder is set on scoring early and often based upon his comments leading up to the game. Jerome Ford and the receiving corps will be the most talented skill position group that the Irish may see all year, and the chess match between Mike Denbrock and his former colleague should be a treat to watch for four quarters. There were some early growing pains for Marcus Freeman’s defense. 

One of the keys to the defensive surge has been their ability to pressure the quarterback in the passing game and the backfield in the running game. Notre Dame has fourteen sacks through its first four games. That’s the most since the group that ended up facing Alabama in the National Championship game. The secondary has gone from a huge question mark over the summer to a group of playmakers. 

Offensively, Tommy Rees will need a more consistent performance from his offensive line to create the balance needed against an aggressive Bearcats’ defense looking to cause havoc from the first snap.

Trends: Cincinnati is scoring 19.7 more points per contest than the Notre Dame is giving up, and they are 2-1 ATS this year.

Notre Dame has gone over the 50.5 mark in three of their four contests.

Best Bet: Over 50.5

Alabama vs Mississippi - 3:30 PM ET

ML: Alabama -540 Mississippi +380
ATS: Alabama -14.5 Mississippi +14.5
O/U: 79.5

Ole Miss has incrementally become an incredibly explosive offense under Lane Kiffin’s watchful eye, and posted 43, 54, and 61 respectively in their first three contests. Matt Corral spearheads the Rebel offense and will pose multiple issues for the Crimson Tide defense that has some holes to fill in the rush defense. 

Seems like a recipe for disaster for Nick Saban and multi-look scheme, but you never know what the old ball coach could have up his sleeve. Alabama and Bryce Young seemed unstoppable until the second half in Gainesville, where the Gators changed the flow of the game with physicality on both sides of the ball. 

Rebel running backs, Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy, were successful against the Crimson Tide defense last year as they rushed for 248 yards. They may have a shot at eclipsing that mark if Nick Saban doesn’t find some answers for his front seven.

Trends: In the College Football Playoff era, Alabama is 47-2 S/U as a home favorite. However, they are 24-25 ATS in those games.

Ole Miss has hit the over 8 out of 12 games in the regular season under Lane Kiffin.

Best Bet: Mississippi +14.5

Arkansas vs. Georgia - 12:00 PM ET

ML: Arkansas +650 Georgia -1100
ATS: Arkansas +18.5 Georgia -18.5
O/U: 48.5

The Razorbacks are slowly becoming a bettors dream with their punishing rushing attacking and hard-hitting defense in the SEC. The health of Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson and wide receiver Trevion Burks will play a major role in the Razorbacks attempt to keep the ball away from Kirby Smart’s most talented offense since his arrival at Georgia. Both are expected to play, but if their injuries keep them from being able to perform at their best level, the Razorback defense may run out of gas late in the contest.

Defense should be KING early on, and no one has played better defense than the Georgia Bulldogs. Their defense has only allowed one touchdown through three games, and it came in garbage time against South Carolina. Even more impressive is the fact that their opponents have reached the red zone a total of four times this season. Not to be outdone, the Razorbacks held Texas to just 256 total yards. Since then, the Longhorns eclipsed the 600-yard mark in its next two games totaling 128 points.

Trends: Georgia is giving up 5.8 pts/gm and the Razorbacks are only giving up two touchdowns per contest. Arkansas is 4-0 ATS this year, and Georgia is 24-1 in the last 25 as a home favorite.

Best Bet: Arkansas +18.5 and the Under

Lock & Key Pick: Iowa -3.5 vs. Maryland

Be sure to check out the Irish Breakdown message board, the Champions Lounge

Irish Breakdown Content

Notre Dame 2021 Roster
Notre Dame 2021 Schedule

Notre Dame 2022 Commits Big Board: Offense
Notre Dame 2022 Commits Big Board: Defense

Notre Dame 2022 Scholarship Offers

Notre Dame 2022 Class Big Board
Notre Dame 2023 Class Big Board

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