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Midweek Musings: Notre Dame vs. Pitt

Thoughts on Notre Dame football, its recruiting efforts and college football.

Thoughts on Notre Dame football, its recruiting efforts and college football.

MUST SEE MATCHUP - OFFENSE

Notre Dame Offensive Line vs. Pitt Defensive Line — I thought about going in a different direction, especially since I’ve already written an entire article (HERE) about this matchup. But at the end of the day I just couldn’t do it, this matchup is just too important and is going to be too good not to talk about again.

You’re talking about arguably the best offensive line in the country against arguably the best defensive line in the country. If you like old school football than this matchup is for you!

BIGGEST CONCERN - OFFENSE

If Notre Dame just dominates Pitt on the ground I’ll be shocked. It’s not that Notre Dame isn’t an outstanding running team - they are - its just the Panthers rarely get dominated on the ground. After struggling with its rush defense in 2018, the Panthers have allowed just 93.6 yards per game on the ground in the 2019-20 seasons.

The fear in this contest for Notre Dame is that the pass game continues to struggle, which puts even more pressure on the ground game. It would also allow the Panthers to tee off on the Irish ground attack, which would make it even harder to score.

This is a matchup Notre Dame must win, and the earlier in the game the better.

STATS THAT MATTER - OFFENSE

There are two stats I’ll be keying on as I evaluate this game, both during and after the contest.

The first is Notre Dame’s yards per rush. Notre Dame ranks 7th nationally in yards per rush (5.9) while Pitt leads the nation in yards allowed per rush (1.9). Only one opponent this season has been over 3.0 YPC, and only two opponents in the last 20 games have gone over 4.0 yards per carry against the Panthers. The last time an opponent went over 5.0 yards per carry was Clemson in 2018, and that team went on to win the national championship.

If Notre Dame can get over 4.5 yards per carry it will be a strong performance. If the Irish get over 5.0 yards per carry against this defense it will be an elite performance considering the quality of the Panther rush defense.

Notre Dame’s passing yards per attempt is the other stat that will be important. In Pitt’s three wins this season, opponents averaged just 4.7 yards per pass attempt. In Pitt’s three losses, however, opponents averaged 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Boston College quarterback Phil Jurkovec averaged 10.2 yards per attempt against the Panthers.

If Notre Dame can get above 8.0 yards per pass attempt it will be a very good sign for the offense. If the Irish get close to 10.0 yards per attempt this will be a dominant Irish victory.

STEP UP TIME - OFFENSE

This is a big moment for offensive coordinator Tommy Rees. His game plans and play-calling have been up-and-down through four games, which isn’t much of a surprise when you consider his youth and inexperience in this role. But Notre Dame is the No. 3 ranked team in the country and it has national championship aspirations …. at least it should. I mean, this is Notre Dame, right?

Pitt presents a major test for Rees, who will match wits with a pair of veterans in head coach Pat Narduzzi and defensive coordinator Randy Bates. Rees will need a strong game plan to get the pass game going, and he’ll need to do whatever possible to get quarterback Ian Book rolling early. Rees will need to make quick adjustments, anticipate the Pitt adjustments and find ways to make Pitt pay for its aggressiveness.

I want to see if Rees can look at his unit’s struggles and make the tough decisions needed to get it going, even if that means adding some aspects the offense has lacked thus far.

If Rees bounces back from a down performance against Louisville it will show great progress for the young coordinator. Rees was a graduate assistant at Northwestern in 2015, and Bates was the linebackers coach on that squad.

MUST SEE MATCHUP - DEFENSE

Notre Dame ends Daelin Hayes, Adetokunbo Ogundeji and Isaiah Foskey vs. Pitt tackles Carter Warren and Gabe Houy. Notre Dame’s ends should thrive against the run, which is something they’ve done all season. I fully expect them to set the edge effectively and shut down the Pitt ground attack.

Where this matchup could get interesting is in the pass game. If Pitt is going to upset Notre Dame it will be due to its pass attacking making big plays (see below). According to Chris Peak of Panther-Lair.com, it seems starting quarterback Kenny Pickett won’t play this weekend, which means the Panthers will once again turn to redshirt freshman Joey Yellen or Davis Beville.

If Pickett does play he’ll be hobbled. In either scenario, a consistent pass rush is an absolute must in this matchup. That’s something the defense has struggled with in the last two games, despite Florida State and Louisville being poor pass blocking teams. That is not true of Pittsburgh, which means the Irish ends will need to be at their best.

Ogundeji needs a big game, Hayes needs to step up his game in a big way, and I’m curious to see if the Irish staff works to get more opportunities for Foskey in pass situations. It would be smart to do, and I think the staff is going to do it this weekend.

BIGGEST CONCERN - DEFENSE

Duke and South Florida are bad at throwing downfield. On the season, the two squads are a combined 11-53 on throws of at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage.

Florida State and Louisville are much better throwing the ball downfield, as quarterbacks Jordan Travis and Malik Cunningham are a combined 22-43 on throws of at least 20 yards past the line.

Duke and South Florida combined to go just 0-6 against Notre Dame on throws of at least 20 yards past the line. Florida State and Louisville combined to go 5-7 against Notre Dame on throws of at least 20 yards past the line.

Pitt’s quarterback have combined to complete 19 throws of at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. Consider that Clemson’s quarterbacks have just 12 and Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book has just five all season.

STATS THAT MATTER - DEFENSE

This one is simple, I want to see Pitt’s yards per pass attempt. If Pittsburgh is below 8.0 yards per attempt it will have a hard time moving the ball efficiently enough to beat Notre Dame. If the Panthers can rip off some big plays, complete first and second down throws at a high level, and gets past 8.0 yards per attempt it could find some success against the Irish.

STEP UP TIME - DEFENSE

Senior linebacker Drew White has not made the second-year leap that was hoped for. White hasn’t been bad by any means, but he’s been inconsistent and not all that productive. His snaps were limited against Florida State, but he bounced back and played solid football in the win over Louisville.

Junior Bo Bauer is coming on strong, and if White wants to justify keeping his starting spot he needs to up his production and start making more plays.

RECRUITING THOUGHTS

Notre Dame junior running back Jahmir Smith announced this week that he will not be playing football for the Irish, choosing to focus on improving his mental health and finishing up his degree.

It is unlikely that Notre Dame brings back Jafar Armstrong for a fifth season, and it’s not a lock that junior C’Bo Flemister. Despite having a commitment from 2021 standout back Logan Diggs, the Irish numbers at the position are looking a bit shaky.

If Flemister returns it would leave the Irish with just three returning backs (Kyren Williams, Chris Tyree), and Diggs would give them four. That makes the depth chart light on numbers. Notre Dame could move and keep current sophomore Kendall Abdur-Rahman at running back, and that could be a very good idea. That would give the Irish good numbers at the position.

Should Flemister not return in 2021 the numbers would be too low.

Notre Dame has two options in that instance. The first is to look for a graduate transfer to provide depth. The second is to add a second prep running back in the 2021 class.

If Notre Dame is simply going to add a depth player than the grad transfer route is the way to go because it only eats up a roster spot for one season. If they land another 2021 back it needs to be someone who can really play, and someone who adds value to the depth chart. If you’re going to lock yourself into a back for four years he needs to be more than a depth or numbers guy.

One early name to know for 2021 could be Lakeland (Fla.) Victory Christian back Cornelius Shaw.

TWEET OF THE WEEK

Smith announced on twitter that he would be walking away from the program to deal with his mental health and academics. Here's the tweet, and he opened up quite a bit and gave perspective on his struggles.

FILM TO WATCH

Speaking of Logan Diggs, he's coming off an outstanding performance for Metairie (La.) Rummel. Diggs rushed for 127 yards and two scores on 15 carries (8.5 YPC), and he caught two passes for 68 yards. Here are some clips from that performance:

I graded Diggs out as a four-star recruit when he committed to Notre Dame, and his senior film so far has been even better than I expected.

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