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Notre Dame Blue Chip Recruiting Ratio

Notre Dame must continue to up its recruiting efforts to get to the next level

Bud Elliott of 247Sports recently released his Blue-Chip Ratio breakdown. This list shows which teams have the most four and five-star players on their roster. By his metrics, a team needs to have over 50% of their roster be blue-chip players to win a title. While Notre Dame landed in the top 15, things don't look promising.

How Notre Dame Stacks Up

On paper, Notre Dame has the makeup of a title contender.

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The Fighting Irish sit at 12th in the country for blue-chip players on their roster. It is a good start to show that Notre Dame has been bringing in some elite-level talent over the last four recruiting classes. They have also been able to develop some three-star guys into elite talent like Julian Love.

However, it also seems fitting that they fall in the pack of the lower tier. Notre Dame has become a team that beats who they should and lose to teams on their level or slightly better. 2020 will look the same as only two opponents are on this list, Clemson and USC.

If you were to poll most fans or experts, they would predict Notre Dame would lose to Clemson and USC will be a close one in 2020. So Notre Dame is looking at another 10+ win season because of a mix of solid coaching and strong talent. They just won't likely breakthrough unless Ian Book can take a big step forward and they can get a few lucky breaks.

Remaining Stagnant

The reason Notre Dame needs a few lucky breaks is based around the backups. There have been teams like 2013 Florida State that stayed healthy and made a run. However, it is rare to see a team avoid injuries all year and not have to rely on their backups or younger players.

Looking at the roster, most of Notre Dame's starters are mostly four and a few five-star players. The problem is that isn't the case for their two-deep. Ohio State or Alabama is loaded and has elite two-deep squads. An injury wouldn't derail their season because the next guy up is likely a top 100 overall recruit. We saw how thin Notre Dame was in the playoff once Julian Love went down.

Furthermore, Notre Dame is headed in the wrong direction. in 2014, 63% of their roster was four and five-star players. In 2017, that number fell to 56%, a -7% drop. Now in 2020, the roster still stands at 56%.

Again, Notre Dame has more than half their roster be blue-chip's is great. But it clearly isn't getting the job done. While Kelly revamped the coaching staff after the 2016 season, the recruiting hasn't had a similar revamp.

Now looking ahead to the 2021 class and on the heels of Brian Kelly commenting that Notre Dame can sign a top-five class, it is all going up in smoke. They have missed on top targets and the once deemed "dream class" isn't meeting up with the hype.

We will probably get fed comments that COVID ruined recruiting. Throw in a few remarks that we should be happy with a 10 win season and a Camping Bowl invite despite the easy schedule. Rinse and repeat.

Can Notre Dame Make Up Ground

Looking at that list, there is a clear tell of what you need to make a playoff. While you can find outliers, 63% seems to be the floor. Oklahoma and Clemson are commonplace in the playoff and LSU were the 2019 champs. But a generational talent at QB can also bridge the gap. Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Baker Mayfield/Kyler Murray did the legwork to get their teams to the playoff. Unfortunately, a QB of that caliber is tough to come by.

Any way you look at it, Ian Book is a solid QB. He beats the teams he should and puts up good numbers in the process. However, he is far from elite. He doesn't do anything great, he is just good at a few things.

So what does Notre Dame need? An elite QB. Clemson and Oklahoma don't recruit like Alabama and Ohio State. Notre Dame won't either. Ian Book also isn't primed for a Joe Burrow-esque. That isn't a knock on Book, he just doesn't have the supporting cast yet. LSU had 14 players drafted in the 2020 draft, seven of them on offense. Notre Dame would need to combine the 2018-2020 NFL Draft to get to seven offensive players drafted.

The Fighting Irish have a ton of talent and some promising players. Michael Mayer, Jordan Johnson, and Chris Tyree could all be special. Lawrence Keys III and Braden Lenzy seem promising. However, the short-term isn't overly promising. We can reevaluate in a few years as these young guys mature and Tyler Buchner gets in the mix. Until then, it would be safe to assume Notre Dame will be what they have been for the last few years. Very good, just not great. 

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