Which team will upset Oklahoma in 2021?

Going undefeated isn't just hard, it's almost impossible. OU never sees the shockers coming. Still, Lincoln Riley isn't worried because his record after a loss is unimpeachable

Oklahoma has only seven undefeated seasons since World War II — and eight in the last 100 years.

That’s actually a lot, even by college football’s highest standards. Nick Saban is working on just his second at Alabama, and the other one came 11 years ago.

It all illustrates how hard it is to go unbeaten. In the last century or so OU, it happens on average once every 13 years. The last, as was widely celebrated and commemorated over the past four months, happened 20 years ago.

So, with the College Football Playoff National Championship Game kicking off on Monday night, it’s tempting to look ahead to the 2021 college football season and wonder: who’s going to beat Oklahoma next year?

The Sooners have two non-conference games scheduled so far: at Tulane on Sept. 4, and Nebraska on Sept. 18. A third non-conference opponent will be unveiled in the coming weeks as part of the school’s 2021 season-ticket rollout.

As OU is widely expected to be a title contender next season, Tulane seems an unlikely conqueror. The Green Wave was 6-6 this season — a middling Group of 5 program. Nebraska seems just as unlikely to win in Norman. The Cornhuskers were 3-5 and haven’t had a winning record since 2016.

So if OU loses, it’ll probably be a Big 12 Conference game.

And Lincoln Riley seems to know the ideal formula for how to respond to an unexpected loss.

“I think we have a confidence as a staff and within our program that doesn't get shaken if we have a loss,” Riley said last week. “On the outside at Oklahoma, if you lose a game, the world's ending and the sky is falling — and that's not necessarily our beliefs within (the program).”

After losing back-to-back games to Kansas State (27.5-point underdogs) and Iowa State (7-point underdogs) this season, Riley rallied his team to eight consecutive victories, including a sixth straight Big 12 championship.

Last year the Sooners lost at Kansas State (23.5-point underdogs), then reeled off five in a row to win the Big 12 and get back to the playoff.

In 2018, after a midseason loss to Texas (8-point underdogs), OU won seven straight, another Big 12 and experienced a CFP return.

And in 2017, Riley’s first career loss — at home to Iowa State (31-point underdogs) — was followed up by eight consecutive wins, a Big 12 title and a CFP trip to Anaheim.

That’s five pretty stunning upsets in four seasons. But that’s also 28 consecutive wins in Riley’s four seasons following a loss (or, in the case of this season, a second loss) — 28 consecutive wins needed to win a conference championship and get either into the College Football Playoff or a New Year’s Six bowl game.

“I think we have a confidence that we can turn it around and we can get things fixed and do the things that we need to do to win games,” Riley said.

So who are the best candidates to upset the Sooners in 2021? Iowa State returns its two best players on offense in Brock Purdy and Breece Hall, but loses a lot of that fearsome defense. Texas is in full rebuild with quarterback Sam Ehlinger gone and new coach Steve Sarkisian replacing Tom Herman. TCU is on a definite upswing in Gary Patterson’s 22nd season as he brings back a lot of talent. Oklahoma State has plenty of young playmakers around QB Spencer Sanders. Baylor’s rebuild under Dave Aranda seems to have momentum, though quarterback Charlie Brewer transferred.

Of course, history tells us that when it happens, it’ll be a team no one expects.

Riley said he realizes, too, that the standard that was set in Norman long before he arrived continues — and it’s a standard that drives him.

“You can’t run off and hide here at a place like this when something doesn't go well,” Riley said. “Most other programs in the country, again, you lose a couple games and it’s easy to pack it in because nobody’s really gonna pay attention anyway. This one’s a little bit different.

“I think you have that responsibility — not saying it’s always gonna be perfect — but I just feel like at a place like this, you have that responsibility of all that came before us, that this program’s meant to be at the top and has a high standard and such a great history — and we sure don't want to be the ones to take away from that in any way. We want to try to add to it and continue to be a part of that.”