Match-Up Tracker: How Oregon's Passing Game Can Find Holes in Washington's Depleted Secondary
The Ducks are slight favorites heading into Saturday’s difficult test against the No. 25 Huskies, but they will need to take advantage of specific matchups to secure the victory. Let’s take a look at how the Ducks offense stacks up with the Huskies defense.
Oregon Passing Game
Seeing Mycah Pittman, Brendan Schooler, and Juwan Johnson all on the field with an established stud like Jaylon Redd leading the way was a welcome sight for all Duck fans, but getting the official announcement of Jacob Breeland’s season-ending injury on Monday was almost enough to deflate that excitement. Breeland leads the Ducks through 6 games with 26 catches for 405 yards and 6 touchdowns. Impressive numbers like that will be hard to replace, but it’s time for the previously injured offensive weapons to fully emerge.
Oregon is 26th nationally and 4th in the Pac-12 with 284.2 passing yards per game so far, and Herbert’s passer rating is 11th best in the FBS according to Sports Source Analytics’. While the Ducks have been able to find success running behind one of the nation’s best offensive lines, there’s no doubt that Herbert’s arm is the single most important factor to this season’s potential. There have been bumps in the road, such as the Cal game where Herbert threw for only 214 yards, 1 TD, and 1 interception, but for the most part, he has looked the part of the first-round pick we expect him to be in this year’s NFL Draft. Because the offensive line is so dominant, he usually has ample time to throw, but seeing that he has been sacked at the 5th highest rate in the Pac-12 is a bit concerning. The Washington pass rush is very effective, so this could be an area to watch on Saturday.
The biggest question looming, however, is how the Ducks will fill Breeland’s shoes. Hunter Kampmoyer is the next man up, and he was the only tight end to see a target from Herbert after Breeland’s departure. Unfortunately, the target went right through his hands on a beautifully designed and executed corner end zone throw that we have seen Breelandv haul in multiple times this year alone.
Rather than Kampmoyer becoming a 5-target per game player, it is more likely that the Ducks will replace Breeland’s production with increased targets to the wideouts. Juwan Johnson’s 6’4" frame gives him the ability to make contested catches, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see OC Marcus Arroyo design a few plays for Johnson that would have previously been marked for Breeland. Freshman standout Mycah Pittman is also a skilled slot receiver that has already become a go-to player for Herbert on short to intermediate targets.
All is not lost with Breeland’s injury, but it certainly is one of the more important players for the Ducks to lose. Against a talented Washington secondary, it will be important for Pittman and Johnson to take the next step forward and provide Herbert with trustworthy targets if Washington is able to limit Redd’s success in the short passing game. All eyes will be on how this plays out in one of the biggest Pac-12 tests the Ducks will face all year.
Washington Pass Defense
The Huskies passing defense ranks third in the Pac-12 and 63rd nationally with 216.9 yards per game given up through seven games. While not a truly elite mark, it does show their ability to limit opposing passers somewhat. Additionally, they are stronger at home averaging 184.8 yards per game to opponents in their four home games. What stands out about the Huskies' ability to limit opposing passers is their defensive line’s success in rushing the passer — they rank second behind only Oregon with 16 sacks on the season. Edge rusher Ryan Bowman was a beast against Arizona last week with two defensive pressures, two huge solo stops, and a timely interception in the 4th quarter that ended the Wildcats’ last chance for a comeback. On the interior, defensive lineman Levi Onwuzurike and Benning Potoa’e combined for two quarterback pressures and a sack, and these two are capable of causing disruption on both pass and run plays.
In the secondary, Washington has had a stout presence despite losing both starting cornerbacks and safeties from last year’s group. Three true freshmen have started games in the secondary for the Huskies, but for the most part, they have performed admirably. They have kept opposing passers to a rating of 114.0 which ranks 3rd in the Pac-12. For reference, UCLA is last with a 180.0 opposing rating, and Oregon is first with an 85.39 opposing rating. Justin Herbert’s passing rating currently sits at 166.3 this season, so something will have to give here.
One of the Huskies' three true freshman starters, Trent Mcduffie, has been a standout so far this year and was a member of Pro Football Focus’ Pac-12 Team of the Week this past week. At safety, senior Myles Bryant provides rare experience and leads the way with 44 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, a pass deflection, and two interceptions this season. His forced fumble came against Arizona last week and was a crucial turning point in the game as Washington held only a 20-17 lead and the ensuing score was the first time they held more than a one-possession lead. Bryant also received a nod to PFF’s Team of the Week for his performance.
Overall this group is talented, albeit somewhat inexperienced, and will give Herbert and his receivers a similar test to the one that California provided only weeks ago. Arroyo will need to continue scheming Redd, Johnson, and Pittman and company into advantageous matchups if the passing game is to be successful. The receivers’ ability to create separation for Herbert against this unit will be paramount to coming home with the win.
Analysis
Overall, this appears to be a close matchup. Oregon is finally healthy at the receiver position, and Herbert is capable of a myriad of throws against all kinds of coverage, but with the loss of his favorite target in Breeland, the Ducks will need Johnson and Pittman to play even bigger roles than expected. How this matchup plays out may determine the game, as the Huskies will be hard-pressed to win if Herbert goes over 300 yards without throwing an interception.
Advantage
Oregon, but only slightly. If not for Breeland’s injury, this would be more in Oregon’s favor. Despite the youth and inexperience at cornerback and safety, Washington’s secondary and pass rush will make things difficult for Herbert and his cache of weapons. On the road in an extremely hostile environment, someone is going to need to step up behind Redd as a go-to option for the Ducks.
