Maven Round-Up: Ducks' Dominance or Revenge of the Huskies?
Is it a trap game, or just another installment of the storied Washington and Oregon rivalry? Will the Ducks come out on top, or will their hopes of a berth in the College Football Playoff be sent packing by a Huskies team that's out for revenge. We cover it all in this week's version of the Maven Round-Up.
The Huskies will easily pose the biggest challenge that Oregon has seen on the ground so far this year, with RB Salvon Ahmed leading the way. While the Ducks only allow 107.5 yards on the ground each game, Washington is third in the conference with about 178 rushing yards per game. Do you think that Oregon will struggle at all stopping the run?
Zachary Neel: I don’t think that the Oregon defense will have any trouble with the Huskies this weekend. With a stacked front seven led by Troy Dye and Jordon Scott, I think that the Ducks will be able to bottle up Ahmed and force Jacob Eason to throw the ball in order get downfield. So far this year, we’ve seen how teams have faired when trying to test the Oregon secondary, so I feel pretty comfortable in saying that the Ducks will hold Washington to a semi-low point total this week.
Cameron Lindsey: This will be the best rushing attack the Ducks have faced since going against Auburn, but I’m still not worried. Nothing has seemed to faze this Duck defensive front so far this season, and they’ve been able to rise to the occasion even when tested. Even if the Ducks allow over 107 yards, it’s hard to see their run defense falling apart.
Daley Stevens: Oregon’s home/road split on rushing yards allowed per game is an interesting trend. Overall they have been incredibly stout on the ground, but have given up 160 rush yards per contest in their away games. Washington could have some success with their outside runs and pitch sweep plays using backup Sean Mcgrew, who provides a speedy change of pace option to Ahmed. Still, I see the Ducks mostly containing the Huskies, especially if they are missing one or both of their offensive linemen that are questionable for the game.
The Ducks were dealt a major blow this week with the announcement that TE Jacob Breeland would miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. Now, without their leading pass-catcher, Oregon will be faced to look elsewhere in the offense for most of their production. Who do you think will become the new No. 1 option?
Neel: Through his first couple of games this year, I’ve absolutely loved what we’ve seen from freshman receiver Mycah Pittman. He has already developed a nice chemistry with Justin Herbert, and his sure hands have made him a reliable option over the middle with big-play opportunity. The Ducks love throwing to the tight end position, and we saw in Week 1 that Spencer Webb is capable of stepping up when called upon. However, I think that Herbert will look to add Pittman into the rotation a lot more, and his speed over the middle will gel nicely with the quickness we’ve seen from Jaylon Redd.
Lindsey: On the bright side, Oregon just had three impact receivers return over the last couple of weeks, so if there’s ever a good time to lose your leading receiver — it’s now. Not to say they can replace a guy like Breeland, who up until now has looked unstoppable; but sometimes with injuries, it’s all about weathering the storm, because they’re surely going to occur. Jaylon Redd is my pick to step up take over as Herbert’s favorite target.
Stevens: The most likely answer here is Pittman, who seems to have Herbert’s trust in the timing and placement of his routes maybe more than any other receiver besides Breeland. However, while I believe Pittman and Redd will lead the way in terms of targets, seeing Juwan Johnson step into a bigger role is a priority. With his 6’4 frame and large contested-catch radius, he could become a go-to option in the red zone that Herbert is lacking without Breeland in the lineup.
Since he didn’t play the last time Oregon traveled to Husky Stadium, Justin Herbert will be experiencing the Washington crowd for the first time in his career. It’s undoubtedly going to be a hostile environment, and it’s looking like rain will become a factor. How do you think Herbert will fair? Can you give me a stat-line prediction?
Neel: To be completely honest, this situation scares me a bit for Herbert. We’ve seen him shrink at times in big games like Week 1 against Auburn, and when put in the position to make a game-changing play on the biggest stage, he tends to come up short. I expect Saturday’s game to be loud, and the conditions will be wet. Hopefully, the Ducks will be able to rely on their defense once again to give the offense a lot of wiggle room, but if it comes down to Herbert needing to make a play to win the game late, I can’t say that I have the utmost confidence in him coming through. I could see him losing one fumble, but throwing for 175 and 1 TD in a low scoring game.
Lindsey: Washington has arguably the best home-field advantage in the Pac-12 next to Oregon, so the environment will certainly be a factor. Herbert has played and played well on big stages before however (Auburn, notably), so I don’t see Washington’s crowd rattling him too much. You never know, though. I think he'll go 17-for-26 with 275 yards and two TDs.
Stevens: I think the Ducks will look to build off their success from the Colorado game by going after Washington’s inexperience at linebacker in the run game. Especially if the weather becomes a factor, I could see Herbert’s volume being somewhat limited this week, but that would likely be a good thing. The only reason for Herbert to throw heavily this weekend is if the Ducks are losing. I project somewhere in the range of 250 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 interception for Herbert on Saturday.
Week after week, we have seen the defense for Oregon absolutely steal the show, and they were fortunate this week to see injuries to both LB Troy Dye and S Jevon Holland not be serious. If you had to highlight one unit that is going to walk away with the game ball, who do you think it will be — D-line, Linebackers or Secondary?
Neel: Give me the vaunted D-line here, as I think they will end up being the difference makers in a win for the Ducks. A run-stopping front led by Jordon Scott, Popo Aumavae and Mase Funa should be able to force a lot of third downs from behind the chains, and with Kayvon Thibodeaux routinely getting pressure on Eason, I think that the front line will take over the game.
Lindsey: I’m expecting the linebackers to show up and show out. They’ve been the backbone of this defense so far, making their presence known both visually and on the stat sheet. These kinds of questions can be tough, since this defense performs incredibly well in unison, and it’s been hard to tell if any one unit is stronger than the other. Nonetheless, I expect the Duck ‘backers to steal the show.
Stevens: I think the secondary may get the opportunity to shine through in this game. If the Ducks can get a first-half lead, Eason may be forced to air it out in the second half, and the wet conditions could make it hard for him to be consistently accurate. While Eason’s arm strength is a plus attribute, it could also lead him to take shots most other quarterbacks wouldn’t attempt. I anticipate at least one interception and think our secondary will be a tipping point in the matchup.
Prop time: What do you think is more likely?
The Ducks score a touchdown on defense, or Herbert throws an interception?
Neel: Once again, I’ll take the defense. With slippery conditions, I think there will be a few balls on the ground, and one of them as to go the other way.
Lindsey: Pick-six all the way.
Stevens: Herbert throws an interception. The Washington secondary is young but very talented, and Herbert is adjusting to the loss of Breeland.
Who’s more likely to score a touchdown, Travis Dye or Brenden Schooler?
Neel: I’d love to say Schooler, but Dye feels more likely to me.
Lindsey: I’ll take Schooler. He’s passionate and due.
Stevens: I’ll go with Schooler here. Feels like a game that Herbert will want to rely on veteran options he can trust, and Schooler has been around the block and back more than once.
Who will have more receiving yards, Jaylon Redd or Mycah Pittman?
Neel: I think Pittman may end up with more receptions, but Redd’s big-play ability gets my vote here.
Lindsey: Redd and Herbert really seem to have something going. Love Pittman, but I’m taking Redd.
Stevens: Redd. Oregon will make it a priority to scheme him at least 4-5 short targets that he can turn into big plays.
What’s a better bet, Washington +3 or Over 48.5 total points?
Neel: A home-underdog is always juicy, especially in a rivalry game, and I think that a low-scoring game on the ground will keep this under. Give me UW plus the points, and please let me be wrong.
Lindsey: This is really tough. I’ll go Washington +3 (and hate myself for it), only because it’s really hard to see this game going over 48.5 points. Unless the Ducks unload on offense, I’m expecting a low final score.
Stevens: Ooh tough one. Based on the conditions and the fact Oregon’s defense has been so dominant I expect a lower scoring game. I’ll take the under on 48.5 points score combined.
