Soaring Big Ten Poised for March Madness, if Covid Permits
Only one thing is certain about Big Ten basketball at this point. Before all is said and done, the league will be denounced as over-rated.
How could it not be?
This is a league that, somewhat incredibly, has not won a national championship since Michigan State in 2000. That was so long ago that the Final Four took place in the Hoosier Dome, which was razed in 2008. And one of the other 2000 Final Four participants was an eighth-seeded Wisconsin, coached by Dick Bennett, who is now best known as Tony’s father.
I distinctly remember that Final Four because I was standing in the tunnel with Northwestern coach Kevin O’Neill at halftime when Michigan State led Wisconsin 19-17 in a ruggedly physical contest. As Tom Izzo went by, he said, “How do you guys like the Super Bowl?’’
I remember it as if it were yesterday. I also know that it definitely did not happen yesterday.
The point is, a lot of fine Big Ten teams have come and gone since then. A lot of them have had the potential to break that drought. Nothing is guaranteed, though, in college basketball—except that there will be surprises.
And let's say right here that Covid-19 remains a great peril. Based on what we have seen as the sports world soldiers on, there will be a pandemic NCAA tournament. But the virus will have an impact.
If you’re sitting on a high perch, surprise is not what you want. And in a Big Ten that might be the best it has been since, oh, 1989, the word ‘surprise’ is fraught with peril.
That said, many Big Ten teams and players are enjoying the kind of success that athletes should be proud of at mid-season.
Michigan freshman Hunter Dickinson has already won Big Ten freshman of the week so many times that they should just call it the Hunter Dickinson Freshman of the Week award.
I’m not exactly sure why this is mid-season. But everyone seems to be saying that it is, so I’ll go along with it. And look at where the Big Ten finds itself at mid-season. . .
Michigan is a Final Four favorite. Iowa is knocking hard on that door.
And in a one-and-done tournament, watch out for Ohio State, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota and Wisconsin. Maybe even Purdue and Indiana. Their best games are really good.
Iowa’s Luka Garza is the frontrunner for national player of the year. Illinois’ Ayo Dosunmu is in excellent position to be a first-team All-America.
And the over/under for NCAA tournament teams is 10.
Here are the latest projections from ESPN expert Joe Lunardi and CBS bracket wizard Jerry Palm:
ESPN, Jan. 26…. No. 1 Michigan, No. 2 Iowa, No. 3 Wisconsin, No. 4 Illinois, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 6 Minnesota, No. 6 Purdue, No. 10 Indiana, No. 11 Maryland, No. 11 Rutgers, No. 12 Michigan State.
CBS, Jan. 25…. No. 1 Michigan, No. 2 Iowa, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Wisconsin, No. 5 Illinois, No. 6 Minnesota, No. 7 Purdue, No. 9 Rutgers. No. 11 Indiana, With Maryland and Michigan State among the First Four Out.
Ten of 14 teams? I would go with the under. These teams are going to play each other. And every time they play, only half of them are going to win. That's a mathematical certainty.
They are going to beat each other up. Take Indiana. Its win at Iowa was a great resume builder. Its next game, a home loss to Rutgers, also was a great resume builder—for Rutgers.
And so, yes, if everything breaks right, 10 bids is very possible. But the resume pieces will need to fit like a jigsaw puzzle.
What could possibly go wrong?
Here’s what. The raging pandemic adds another layer of uncertainty to a sport that basks in surprises. March Madness and Cinderella stories now must make room for Covid-19 craziness.
The Big Ten’s two Michigan teams are perfect examples.
Michigan State, which had its season put on hold in mid-January, faces a jam-packed schedule in February to try and make up for lost time. That’s not the best way for an under-achieving squad to try got back on track.
Michigan is just starting what’s expected to be a two-week shutdown after positive tests for a new coronavirus strain within the Michigan athletic department.
Meanwhile, other teams have had ups and downs that would fit in well at a yo-yo convention. Despite a talented roster led by Dosunmu, a likely future NBA stalwart, Illinois can look utterly listless at times. And Wisconsin, which can shut down the best of opponents at times, can become as cold as an ice-fishing hut on Lake Mendota when it comes to scoring.
Minnesota chewed up Michigan, then crawled back into a hole against Maryland, which has three impressive road wins (at Wisconsin, Illinois and Minnesota) but has turtled its way to 3-6 in the Big Ten.
And where to begin with Northwestern, which started 3-0 in the league but is now 3-7? If you have an idea for how the Cats can win again, send it Chris Collins’ way.
At this point, never mind pondering the greatest expectations of an undeniably talented league. The biggest item on the Big Ten’s to-do list as college basketball heads into its best time of the year is this: Do everything possible to contain pandemic peril so that you can play on.
Never mind fretting about living up to the lofty expectations. Just stay healthy enough to play. And if you’re not healthy enough to play. . . don’t play.