Gould Standard Pick Six: Week 16
Have you ever tried to catch a fish with your bare hands?
That’s what picking against the spread in a pandemic feels like to me. I cringe when I tune in a game and the announcer says, ``. . . and State U will be playing without 23 players who are sidelined by Covid-19.’’
The weird part is, I don’t think there’s any correlation between having the most players sidelined and losing.
That’s the fishy part.
That said, I am coming off another 3-3 week. I am pleased to have predicted that Rutgers would surprise Maryland. That Alabama would roll against Arkansas. That Iowa would stifle (sigh) Wisconsin.
I am sorry that I thought Navy would surprise Army. Sorry that Covid-addled Illinois couldn’t keep up with Northwestern. Disappointed in myself for believing that Miami, which got stomped by North Carolina, was back.
And so, that 3-3 leaves me 41-42-1 against the spread. A 4-2 mark puts me 61–17 straight up this season.
Careful readers will notice another thing. When I choose my Pick Six, I try to pick six games that I want to watch, and that I assume you readers will want to watch. And no over/unders because I am not that kind of a guy.
No excuses. You are what your record says you are. And when I think of all the near-misses I’ve had over this strange season, I am not overly disappointed to be where I’m at.
So here’s to one final Championship Week push.
As the recently departed Paul Hornung used to say on his short-running radio commentary show. . . Good luck in sports.
THE GAMES
(Central Flyover Time)
Ball State plus-13.5 vs. Buffalo, 6:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN
Nebraska minus-6.5 at Rutgers, 6:30 p.m. Friday, BTN
Northwestern plus-20.5 vs. Ohio State, 11 a.m., FOX
Oklahoma minus-5.5 vs. Iowa State, 11 a.m., ABC
Clemson minus 10.5 vs Notre Dame, 3 p.m., ABC
Alabama minus-17 vs. Florida, 7 p.m., CBS
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THE PICKS
(ATS winner in bold)
Ball State plus-13.5 vs. Buffalo, 6:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN
In Mid-American championship from Detroit, phenom runner Jaret Patterson leads a Buffalo (5-0) offense that averages 8.1 yards per play, tops in the nation. Even better than Alabama (7.9). Tall order for Ball State (5-1), which survived wacky finish vs. Western Michigan last week.
Buffalo 42, Ball State 24
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Nebraska minus-6.5 at Rutgers, 6:30 p.m. Friday, BTN
Neither Nebraska (2-5) nor Rutgers (3-5) are who we want to think they are. In his first season, Greg Schiano has inspired the Scarlet Knights to exceed expectations. In his third season, Scott Frost still has not found a way out of the Cornhuskers maze. I kinda like an upset here
Rutgers 28, Nebraska 27
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Northwestern plus-20.5 vs. Ohio State, 11 a.m., FOX
Looks like Vegas (and everybody else) are expecting a repeat of the 2018 Big Ten championship game, in which Ohio State (5-0) pummeled Northwestern (6-1) by a nasty 45-24 count in Indianapolis. The way Indiana’s offense gashed the Buckeyes defense this year makes me skeptical. On second thought, I don’t believe Northwestern’s offense is as clever as IU’s. And OSU has more big-time playmakers than NU’s fine defense has seen.
Ohio State 45, Northwestern 24
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Oklahoma minus-5.5 vs. Iowa State, 11 a.m., ABC
Since the bumbling 1-2 start, which included a 37-30 loss at Iowa State (8-2), Oklahoma (7-2) is back. And the Cyclones, bidding for their first conference championship in Arlington, Tex., since 1912, have been on a roll since a tough loss at Oklahoma State on Oct. 24. Sooners’ talent should prevail, But Iowa State’s grit should keep it close.
Oklahoma 38, Iowa State 35
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Clemson minus 10.5 vs Notre Dame, 3 p.m., ABC
If Notre Dame (10-0) plays its best game and Clemson (9-1) doesn’t, the Irish can win. We’ve already seen that. This time, though, the Tigers (with Trevor Lawrence in action) will play a lot better. Helps to have the game in Charlotte, a couple of I-85 hours from Clemson. The Irish will stick around, though.
Clemson 35, Notre Dame 31
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Alabama minus-17 vs. Florida, 7 p.m., CBS
Florida will play much better than it did in that head-scratching loss to LSU. But it won’t matter much against Alabama.
Alabama 45, Florida 21
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LAST WEEK ATS: 3-3. . . THIS SEASON: 41-42-1
LAST WEEK STRAIGHT UP: 4-2. . . THIS SEASON: 65–19