Indiana & Purdue Need to Show Home Cooking at Wide-Open B1G Tourney in Indy
This is how wide-open the Big Ten tournament is: When four ESPN.com scribes picked, they came up with Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa.
That’s right. Four different winners. And they all ignored the league’s three co-champions: Wisconsin, Maryland and Michigan State.
I don’t disagree with the premise. Any of those seven teams could cut down the nets in Indianapolis on Sunday without raising eyebrows.
If making a safe pick, I would go with Michigan State. They’ve had their ups and downs, but Tom Izzo teams always seem to play their best at this time of year. They guard. They’re determined. And they’re sound. When they shoot well, which they don’t always do, they’re a load.
Honorable mention; Maryland. After being in perfect position to win their first Big Ten title outright, they had to scramble to grab a share of the championship. The Terps need to end this season with a flourish to avoid having a bad taste. The NCAA tournament is what matters most. But Indy is where they need to build some confidence.
If I were getting the right odds, I wouldn’t hesitate to reach for an eighth option: Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights are scrappy and fearless. Geo Baker is a clutch dude. Between their playground determination and Steve Pikiell’s sound foundation, they’re built to over-achieve. Gotta love the wide bodies and the big hair.
Here’s another thing about Rutgers. It could use another win to feel completely comfortable about Selection Sunday. With an opening game against Michigan in the 8/9 slot, the Scarlet Knights know they’ll need to be prepared.
WHO NEEDS IT THE MOST?
It’s very convenient that the Big Ten tournament will be played in Indianapolis. Nobody needs to show well more than local heroes Indiana and Purdue.
IU’s opener vs. Nebraska shapes up a must-win for a team that appears to be one of the last four into the NCAA field. If the Hoosiers could add a second-round vs. Penn State, they would take the worry out of Selection Sunday.
Purdue faces an even taller order. The Boilermakers, who are on the wrong side of the bubble, not only need to win at least two games in Indy. They need to do it against Ohio State and Michigan State, a pair of ranked teams that are playing for NCAA tournament seeding as well as Big Ten tournament glory. With a pair of quality wins like that, Purdue would make a pretty big statement.
If both were to make it, the Big Ten would be in line for 11 teams in the Big Dance.
More likely: Indiana takes care of business, giving the league 10 bids. If IU comes up short, that will only add to the unrest around Archie Miller.
WHERE’S THE FINAL FOUR TEAM?
Here's a sure thing for this edition of March Madness: The Big Ten will be called over-rated. One of the perils of being labelled the best league in the nation is, there’s only way to go. And it’s not up.
With a record number of NCAA bids—whether it winds up being nine, 10 or 11—and all the love, there will be a burden to validate the accolades by winning in the national tournament. And the Big Ten doesn't seem to be built for that.
Ideally, the league would cap off what’s being touted as a highly successful season by ending its national championship drought. The Big Ten’s last national champion was Michigan State in 2000. Before that, Michigan won 1989.
No champions in 20 years. One champion in 31 years. Those are pretty tough numbers to swallow for a league as proud as the Big Ten.
The problem is, even with 10 or 11 bids, it’s not easy to spot super-solid Final Four candidates. The ACC has more teams (Florida State, Duke, Louisville, Virginia) that seem likely to go deep. The Big 12 (Kansas and Baylor) has a great one-two punch. The Big East has a few teams that we may look back on in a few weeks and say, Yeah, that makes sense. Even some West Coast teams from mid-major leagues (Gonzaga and San Diego State) are going to get a lot of Final Four love.
But who goes deep from the Big Ten? Hard to say.
Maybe it’s because I see more of the Big Ten—and know the flaws as well as the strengths. But considering how good the league has been this year, I have a hard time labeling any of them as big-time Final Four candidates.
As mentioned above, Michigan State and Maryland are the most obvious to me. As hot as Wisconsin has been, winning its final eight league games, scoring-by-committee is a tricky way to advance in March.
Illinois has some really interesting ingredients, starting with Ayo Dosunmu, the kind of player you want to have when you have to have a basket late in a tight game. But it’s all so new at Illinois, which hasn’t even been in the NCAA tournament since 2013.
Michigan has a lot of nice pieces and Zavier Simpson is an excellent triggerman. With strong-willed able-bodied Luka Garza, Iowa could get hot if other Hawkeyes make some shots. But the Iowa defense and depth cast doubt on their chances. Even with Kaleb Wesson, Ohio State is not likely to have a ton of Final Four backers.
And so. . . pretty tough to say who might be playing in Atlanta, even from the league that has been anointed the nation’s best.
Depth? Yes. A juggernaut or two at the top? To be determined.
ALL-BIG TEN, FIRST TEAM
Luka Garza, Iowa; Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois; Cassius Winston, Michigan State; Daniel Oturu, Minnesota; Lamar Stevens, Penn State.
Garza is the Big Ten player of the year, and in the discussion for national player of the year. Winston and Dosunmu are as dangerous as they come with the ball on the perimeter. Stevens and Oturu are gifted all-around players who have put their teams on their backs.
ALL-BIG TEN, SECOND TEAM
Antony Cowan Jr. and Jalen Smith, Maryland; Kaleb Wesson, Ohio State; Xavier Tillman, Michigan State, Zavier Simpson, Michigan.
If Maryland hadn’t swooned late, Cowan and Smith would be first-team worthy. Wesson put Ohio State on his back. Tillman, the league’s best defender, is a consummate Izzo-era Spartan. Simpson makes the Wolverines go.