The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 1
After a profitable 2019 (19-11 vs. the spread during the regular season followed by 22-17 vs. the spread in the bowls) the Locksmith tip-toes toward a new season with considerable trepidation. It’s 2020. Anything can happen. Unforeseen variables will affect teams on a week to week basis. They already have.
And the ante has been upped this year. Instead of picking two games a week we’re doing six.
So here goes:
Louisiana-Lafayette over IOWA STATE, taking 11½
This could be a breakout year for the Cyclones. They have plenty of the right pieces. But this is a tough way to start, with the Rajin Cajuns coming off an 11-3 season that saw losses at Mississippi State and twice to 13-1 Appalachian State. Talented Louisiana QB Levi Lewis has a couple of running backs returning who combined for nearly 2,000 yards. This could be a close one.
NORTH CAROLINA over Syracuse, giving 23
Trendy teams like North Carolina more often than not seem to disappoint. But the combination of QB Sam Howell with playmaking WRs Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome means the Tar Heels will score plenty – even with COVID-19 restricting practice time. Syracuse looks to be in rebuilding mode, and it can’t help that the Orange’s top two running backs opted out last week.
Duke at NOTRE DAME, under 54.5
Blue Devils can’t keep pace with Notre Dame’s firepower. And defense could rule the day for both teams. So something like 35-10 seems about right.
FLORIDA STATE over Georgia Tech, giving 12½
Putting faith in QB James Blackman is always risky. But maybe first-year FSU coach Mike Norvell can finally coax some consistency out of him. Seminoles look like they’re stockpiling some nice talent. Georgia Tech has uncertainty at quarterback. That’s never good for an opener.
LOUISVILLE over Western Kentucky, giving 11½
Cards QB Micale Cunningham got markedly better as the season wore on a year ago and the offensive production reflected that. Louisville likes putting up big numbers when it has the chance to do so. This is a chance to do so.
SOUTH ALABAMA over TULANE, taking 8
Jags have a major advantage in having already played, rolling up 526 yards in a win over Southern Miss. That’s a huge edge. Green Wave has six grad transfers playing key roles. That will help in the long-term but it may make for an early adjustment.
Home team in CAPS