Getting Value Out Of The Kentucky Derby With Tiz The Law Looking Unbeatable

Field Now down To 16 But There Appear To Be Some Playable Longshots

There’s really only one question to answer in handicapping this year’s Kentucky Derby, now down to 16 likely starters with the defection today of Finnick the Fierce.

Is Tiz the Law beatable in this spot?

Know this first: I do everything I can to find horses to beat odds-on favorites. Thanks to the DQ of Maximum Security last year I saved with a $1 exacta (it came back $1,504.80) because I keyed my win, place and exacta bets around Code of Honor (though too many of those bets had him winning). When Country House was elevated to first – at a mutual of $132.40 – Code of Honor moved up from third to second.

Here’s the problem with beating Tiz the Law, who is 6-for-7 lifetime and already is one of the most accomplished Derby starters in history: this looks to be an average group of 3-year-olds and he is a superior one. We know distance isn’t an issue since he won the Travers at a mile and a quarter.

So we need to find value.

I don’t think either of Bob Baffert’s horses, Thousand Words or Authentic, want any part of a mile and a quarter. It sure looks like 5-1 morning line second choice Honor A.P., who has won exactly one race of note in his career, has been babied with the way his starts are spaced out.

So let’s toss them.

Let’s also say with conviction that Tiz the Law will win. How do you turn a heavy favorite like that into value?

Ny Traffic is intriguing because his arrow continues pointing up. So he needs to be in the mix with exactas, trifectas and superfectas.

After that it’s worth taking a stab with three other longshots: Max Player and Enforceable, both listed at 30-1 on the morning line, and 50-1 Mr. Big News. All seem to be crying out for this distance.

Max Player was third in the Travers and Belmont Stakes and can certainly get a piece against this group. Enforceable will likely be last early, but there are just enough speedsters who will want to get the jump on Tiz the Law and that could benefit the Mark Casse-trainee. Mr. Big News is another late runner, one who should benefit from the Blue Grass since it was his first race in three months.

A few exactas and a some trifectas and supers keying Tiz the Law on top seems to be the only way to pull some money out of this Derby.