Fully expecting this roll the Locksmith is on—5-1 last week, 28-13-1 vs. the spread for the year—to come to a crashing halt.
But until then we'll keep plugging away. Several key games dot the scheduled lineup that has managed to sidestep COVID-19, which is having a bigger impact on college football with each passing week.
So let's get to it.
Georgia over KENTUCKY, giving 17
History tells us the Bulldogs often struggle the week before playing Florida. But one-dimensional, run-dominated Kentucky is an easy assignment for Georgia’s defense, especially with QB Terry Wilson out due to an injury. Wildcats didn’t complete a pass in the second or third quarter last week.
Memphis over CINCINNATI, taking 6½
Tigers’ QB Brady White is playing well enough to drag Cincy into a higher scoring game that the Bearcats would prefer. Cincy’s defense is staunch, but White can counter that if he can continue his high level of play. Counting on a little bit of a Cincy letdown after the big win against SMU last week, too.
IOWA over Northwestern, giving 2½
Despite losing to Purdue, Hawkeyes rolled up 460 yards of offense while showing nice balance. Surely a coach as revered as Kirk Ferentz (why is there no sarcasm font?) can figure out a way to turn that potential into more points. Wildcats got off easy by opening with hapless Maryland.
Texas over OKLAHOMA STATE, taking 3½
Some letdown is expected from the Cowboys after the big win over Iowa State last week, and their offense continues to struggle. Texas’ shoddy defense will make it look better, so the key is whether senior QB Sam Ehlinger and a potent Longhorns offense can solve a very good OSU defense.
Oklahoma over TEXAS TECH, giving 14½
It’s always worrisome giving this many points with Oklahoma’s defense, but the Sooners appear to have their focus back – and QB Spencer Rattler is getting better with each start. Not sure what to make of the Red Raiders, who are all over the map with their play and are down to a backup QB. Their defense is awful too.
Ohio State over PENN STATE, giving 12
Fully expecting Penn State coach James Franklin to make at least one dumb in-game decision that costs his team. Buckeyes’ offense will take care of the rest.
LAST WEEK VS. SPREAD: 5-1
SEASON TO DATE VS. SPREAD: 28-13-1
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