The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 4
The Locksmith is still spinning his wheels -- but can sense some momentum building.
Two key SEC games highlight this week's selections, with Florida at Tennessee and Arkansas and Texas A&M squaring off at Jerry's World in Arlington, Texas.
We'll know more about whether Tennessee and Arkansas are the real deal after this Saturday.
On to the picks:
TENNESSEE over Florida, giving 10 1/2
Vols own the nation's No. 5 passing attack because of the efficiency and effectiveness of Hendon Hooker, who has a 37-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio the past two seasons. This year it's 6-0. Contrast that to Florida QB Anthony Richardson, who has yet to throw a TD pass and has four interceptions. Now put Richardson and the Gators on the road for the first time, with a crowd of 100,000-plus expected. Florida was fortunate to escape USF at home last week.
IOWA STATE over Baylor, giving 3
Cyclones look like a grind-it-out team on offense that can stack up with any Big 12 opponent defensively, with ISU ranked No. 5 nationally in rushing defense and No. 10 overall. Both QB Hunter Dekker and RB Jirehl Brock have been solid, but this is a defense-first team -- as evidenced by the 10-7 win at Iowa. Hard to get a read yet on Baylor with new QB Blake Shapen and a running game that has to carry this offense. In a double OT loss to BYU Shapen threw for just 137 yards. Cyclones' defense is too good for this one-dimensional Baylor offense.
Arkansas over Texas A&M, taking 2 1/2 (at Arlington, Texas)
This should determine the second-best team in the SEC West, and with A&M's lack of offense (109th nationally overall) and Arkansas' ability to move the ball (595 yards of offense last week) the edge has to go to the team that has the ability to score. That's not the Aggies. Hogs' QB KJ Jefferson needs to carry this team here, as he did last week, passing for 385 yards, rushing for 40 and combining for three TDs. Now he has some balance with emerging RB star Rocket Sanders. Have you seen A&M's options at quarterback? There's a reason this offense is a very bad one.
OHIO STATE over Wisconsin, giving 18
Let's review: There's the No. 1 offense nationally with a star QB (C.J. Stroud) who has thrown for 11 TDs without an interception and is completing 72.9 percent of his passes vs. another plodding, run-oriented Wisconsin team that has a quality back (Braelon Allen) but a quarterback (Graham Mertz) who has regressed every year. And the game is in Columbus. Buckeyes' balance will overwhelm a decent Badgers' defense here. Wisconsin has played one quality opponent so far -- Washington State -- and lost at home.
WASHINGTON STATE over Oregon, taking 6 1/2
Waiting for a Bo Nix road meltdown in 3 ... 2 ... 1. As erratic as the Ducks' QB has been over his career there have yet to be any real signs that this Oregon defense will be able to overcome a bad Nix afternoon. Cougars have found a nice offensive mix with QB Cameron Ward and RB Nakia Watson but it's their defense that will make the difference here.
EAST CAROLINA over Navy, giving 17
Sad to see how far Navy has fallen these days -- the next coach on the hot seat? -- with the offense ranked just 45th nationally in rushing while managing just 20 points the first two games. Navy has more interceptions already (2) than touchdown passes (1) and after that loss to Delaware it looks like there is only the season-ending game with Army to look forward to. Pirates, who could have and should have beaten N.C, State in their opener, are averaging nearly 500 yards per game on offense. This is not a Navy team that can play keep away with the ground game, either,
Last week vs. spread: 3-3
Season to date vs. spread: 8-10
Home team in CAPS
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