Should Ohio State Get A Playoff Spot Regardless of its Record? It's Complicated
The year was 2014 and I was talking to Mike Slive, the late commissioner of the SEC.
The subject? Exactly how the selection committee for the new College Football Playoff was going to work.
I asked if the four playoff spots would go to the conference champions with the best body of work.
“No, no,” he gently corrected me. “The playoff spots will go to the four best teams.”
And so it has gone for each of the first six years of the CFP as the selection committee has wrestled with how to define “the four best teams.”
Opinions vary.
This season will be no exception. In fact, in this COVID-crazed year we might be getting ready to have the biggest argument of all about who is or who is not a playoff team.
So today, we ask: Is Ohio State (5-0), which has played only five games, one of the best four teams in college football? And if they are, do the Buckeyes, who have won half as many games as No. 2 Notre Dame (10-0) deserve one of those precious four spots because, doggone it, they are just that good?
For now, the CFP says yes.
But it’s complicated.
Really, really complicated.
The top six—Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Florida—remained unchanged Tuesday night when the third set of CFP rankings were released.
The only surprise was that Iowa State (8-2), which will play Oklahoma for the Big 12 championship on Dec. 19, moved from No. 9 to No. 7.
Ohio State got some bad news earlier in the day when Michigan (2-4) announced it would not be able to play Saturday’s rivalry game at Columbus, Ohio due to COVID concerns. The game was cancelled and will not be rescheduled. The two teams have played every year since 1917.
The problem for Ohio State moving forward is a rule, instituted before the Big Ten began play on Oct. 23, that in order to qualify for the championship game on Dec. 19 a team must have played a minimum of six regular-season games.
The Big Ten athletics directors will meet on Wednesday but it is not known if they will discuss changing this rule, according to Dennis Dodd of CBSSports.com.
Ohio State Coach Ryan Day has forcefully said that the rule must be changed. Wisconsin athletics director Barry Alvarez agrees.
Unless the Big Ten changes that rule or finds another opponent for Ohio State this Saturday, the Buckeyes will not be eligible to play in the Big Ten championship game against Northwestern. Indiana (6-1), which lost to Ohio State 42-35 on Nov. 21, would represent the Big Ten East.
Even if Ohio State does not play in the Big Ten championship game it will play somebody, probably Iowa, on Dec. 19 with a chance to go 6-0. But they won’t be Big Ten champions. Being a conference champion serves as a tiebreaker with the selection committee when the decision is a close one.
So who can Ohio State play this Saturday? The Big Ten currently has a full slate of seven games—minus Ohio State vs. Michigan.
But this is 2020. Coastal Carolina and BYU proved to us last week that you can make things happen.
Maryland (2-2) which had a game with Ohio State cancelled on Nov. 28, is scheduled to play at home against Rutgers on Saturday. That game could be canceled and Ohio State could play the Terps. Sorry Rutgers. You gotta take one for the team.
There was also talk about Ohio State having a rematch with Indiana. But the Hoosiers, who are scheduled to play Purdue, put a pause on practice Tuesday due to COVID concerns.
So what’s going to happen?
I reached out to Jerry Palm, who crunches the CFP numbers for CBSSports.com. I came away from out conversation with several tidbits:
While fans outside of the Big Ten might not like it, a 7-0 Ohio State that is also the Big Ten champion is all but a lock to make the CFP.
“Because the CFP selection committee did not put a minimum game requirement in their rules, they have to ignore (the fact that Ohio State has played only seven games),” said Palm. “They have to evaluate teams based on how they have performed against the teams they have played.”
Ohio State has faced only one team, Indiana (6-1) with a winning record.
In fact, Palm said, even a 6-0 Ohio State that is a Big Ten champ would probably get in the playoffs.
This is where the controversial “eye test” comes in.
“Are they a playoff caliber team?” asks Palm. “What kind of talent do they have on the field? Have they been a dominant team?”
Understand this: The Big Ten’s ultimate decision to play this season—after declaring on Aug. 11 that it would not play—was all about finding a way to get Ohio State into the College Football Playoff. The Buckeyes are convinced this team—led by Georgia transfer Justin Fields at quarterback—can win it all.
Now is there a scenario that could keep a 7-0 Big Ten champion Ohio State out of the playoffs?
You bet. Try this:
No. 6 Florida beats No. 1 Alabama in the SEC championship game. Both Florida and Alabama get in.
No. 3 Clemson avenges its only loss to No. 2 Notre Dame in a close game for ACC championship. Both teams get in and Ohio State gets left out because it didn’t play enough games.
Buckle up, folks. We are headed to a wild finish.
TOP 10 CFP RANKINGS
With games remaining
1—Alabama (9-0): Saturday at Arkansas; Dec. 19 vs. Florida SEC Championship game.
2—Notre Dame (10-0): Dec. 19 vs. Clemson, ACC Championship game.
3—Clemson (9-1): Dec. 19 vs. Notre Dame, ACC championship game
4—Ohio State (5-0): Dec. 19 TBD
5—Texas A&M (7-1): Dec. 19 at Tennessee.
6—Florida (8-1): Saturday vs. LSU; Dec. 19 vs. Alabama, SEC championship game
7—Iowa State (8-2): Dec. 19 vs. Oklahoma, Big 12 championship game
8—Cincinnati (8-0): Dec. 19 vs. Tulsa, AAC championship game
9—Georgia (6-2): Saturday at Missouri; Dec. 19 vs. Vanderbilt
10—Miami (8-1): Saturday vs. North Carolina; Dec. 19 vs. Georgia Tech