Mr. CFB Pick Six: Week 12
We went 3-3 against the spread last week but, brothers and sisters, we were so close to being much better.
After a big win over Clemson the week before, I thought Notre Dame would come out a little flat at Boston College. So I took the Eagles and the 13.5 points.
Notre Dame won by 14, 45-31.
With the way Vanderbilt (0-6) had been struggling, I thought Kentucky would cover the 17.5. And with nine minutes to go the Wildcats led by 17, 38-21. But Kentucky gave up two touchdowns late and only won by three, 38-35.
With Florida coming off a big win against Georgia, I thought the Gators would not cover the 17.5 points against improved Arkansas. But Arkansas did not have an answer for Kyle Trask, who threw for 356 yards six touchdowns. Florida won by 28 (63-35).
The winners: Ole Miss covered the 11.5 against South Carolina, Miami was a 2.5-point underdog at Virginia Tech and won straight up, and Wisconsin, a 4.5 point favorite, embarrassed Michigan 49-11.
So that leaves us still at .500 at 30-30 ATS.
Here we go for Week 11:
The game: LSU (2-3) at Arkansas (3-4) (plus 2.5), Noon, SEC Network.
The winner: Arkansas.
The score: Arkansas 31, LSU 27.
The skinny: Arkansas lost at Florida 63-35 last week but note that quarterback Feilepe Franks completed 15 of 19 passes for 250 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Now the Hogs return home and welcome back Coach Sam Pittman, who sat out last week after testing positive for the coronavirus. LSU, whose game with Alabama was postponed last week, will continue with freshman quarterback T. J. Finley, who has replaced the injured Myles Brennan. Look for Arkansas to do some things on defense to confuse Finley. Hogs win straight up.
The game: Florida (5-1) at Vanderbilt (0-6) (plus 31.5), Noon, ESPN.
The winner: Florida.
The score: Florida 59, Vanderbilt 17.
The skinny: There are only a couple of questions about this game.
1—How many touchdown passes will Florida'sTrask throw?
He has 28 in his first six games which is an SEC record. Trask has put himself very much in the Heisman Trophy discussion and head coach Dan Mullen will want to keep him there. So let’s say that Trask will throw for at least six scores.
2—Can Florida cover the 31.5? Yes they can, especially with the first set of College Football Playoff rankings coming out next week.
Now I’ve seen some Florida teams go to Vanderbilt and just slop it around as the 1996 national championship did (28-21 win_ I don’t think this team will do that. Gators cover.
The game: Kentucky (3-4) (plus 30.5) at Alabama (6-0), 4 p.m., SEC Network.
The winner: Alabama.
The score: Alabama 45, Kentucky 14.
The skinny: Alabama quarterback Mac Jones is on fire. In six games Jones has completed 78.5 percent—that’s right—78.5 percent of his passes for 2,196 yards, 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He is No. 3 nationally in passing with 366 yards per game. And, like Florida’s Trask, Jones is very much in the Heisman Trophy race.
Kentucky has the No. 2 scoring defense in the SEC (21.8 ppg) but the Wildcats simply cannot keep up on offense (23.3 ppg).
The game: Tennessee (2-4) (plus 11.5) at Auburn (4-2), 7 p.m., ESPN.
The winner: Auburn.
The score: Auburn 28, Tennessee 14.
The skinny: It has been a tough year on Rocky Top. After winning their first two games of the season, the Volunteers led Georgia at 21-17 at halftime and did not score again, losing 44-21. In Tennessee’s last game at Arkansas, the Volunteers led 13-0 at halftime and lost 24-13. Something clearly wrong at Tennessee. So Tennessee REALLY needs to win this game but I just can’t see it happening and Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn hasn’t played since a 48-11 domination of LSU Oct. 31 and this game sets the stage for new week’s Iron Bowl at Alabama next week.
The game: Miss. State (2-4) at Georgia (4-2) (plus 25.5), 7:30 p.m., SEC Network.
The winner: Georgia.
The score: Georgia 42, Miss. State 14
The skinny: All season long Georgia fans have been clamoring to see JT Daniels, the transfer quarterback from USC. Well, it looks like the Bulldog Nation is finally going to get its wish. With starting quarterback Stetson Bennett IV nursing an AC sprain Daniels, who was USC’s starting quarterback as a freshman in 2018, looks like he will get his first career start for Georgia against Mississippi State. Mississippi State’s only win since the opening weekend against LSU was a 24-17 victory over Vanderbilt on Nov. 7. Georgia wins on Homecoming and covers.
The game: Missouri (2-3) at South Carolina (2-5) (plus 6.5), 7:30 p.m., SEC Network (Alternate).
The winner: Missouri.
The score: Missouri 31, South Carolina 24.
The skinny: With the firing of head coach Will Muschamp on Sunday, it’s hard to know which South Carolina team is going to show up for this one. Four players, including elite cornerback Jaycee Horn, left the program this week. Not good.
On Oct. 17 South Carolina put up a huge win over Auburn (30-22). But in the last three games the Gamecock defense has given up 52 points to LSU, 48 to Texas A&M, and 59 against Ole Miss. First-year offensive coordinator Mike Bobo has taken over as interim head coach. Missouri has not played since a 41-17 loss at Florida on Oct. 31. Running back Larry Rountree needs just 18 rushing yards to become the leading rusher at the running back position in school history.