Mr. CFB Pick Six, Week 15
Mercifully, we have only two Saturdays left.
Your once fearless prognosticator is leaking oil down the stretch. We went 2-4 last week and simply could not get a break:
**--I jumped on the Auburn bandwagon at home, taking the Tigers and the 6 ½ against Texas A&M. In fact, I thought Auburn would win straight up. But the Aggies won 31-20.
**--Picking Missouri to win at home on senior day against Arkansas seemed like a lock. The Tigers won by two, 50-48. But Arkansas had 2 ½.
**--The way Florida was playing I was sure the Gators would cover 17 ½ against hapless Tennessee. But they won by 12, 31-19.
**--But surely, I thought BYU would breeze into Coastal Carolina and easily cover 10 ½. The Chanticleers stopped BYU on the two-yard line on the last play of the game and won straight up, 22-17.
So that leaves us at 37-41 OTS with 12 games left. Let’s give it another try.
The game: Alabama (9-0) at Arkansas (3-6) (plus 32 ½), Noon, ESPN
The winner: Alabama.
The score: Alabama 51, Arkansas 14.
The skinny: It’s tempting to lay the points and take the big home underdog. But this Alabama team is from a different planet. The Crimson Tide is averaging 49.2 points per game and over the past few weeks the defense has gotten better. With the SEC championship game coming up next week, look for Alabama’s Nick Saban to take control of the game and try to get his starters out early in the second half. That’s another reason the Crimson Tide might not cover the 32 ½. But I can’t pick against them.
Georgia (6-2) at Missouri (5-3) (plus 13 ½), Noon, SEC Network.
The winner: Missouri.
The score: Georgia 31, Missouri 24.
The skinny: Mizzou has been playing really well down the stretch and they have found a way to win close games. The Tigers have found their quarterback in Connor Bazelak, who is 6-1 in games he has started. Larry Rountree is Missouri’s career leading rusher from a running back. Georgia, who will give quarterback JT Daniels his third start, will win the game. But I just believe that Missouri at home will make it closer than the experts think.
Tennessee (2-6) at Vanderbilt (0-8) (plus 15 ½), 4 p.m., SEC Network
The winner: Tennessee.
The score: Tennessee 37, Vanderbilt 21.
The skinny: All the signs say that despite losing six straight games, Tennessee coach Jeremy Pruitt will be back for a fourth season. But the Volunteers cannot lose to a winless Vanderbilt team that is looking for a new head coach.
Keep your eye on the quarterback position at Tennessee. The Vols benched long-time stater Jarrett Guarantono last week in favor of Harrison Bailey and J.T. Shrout. Look for both to play against the Commodores.
Volunteers win and cover the 15 ½.
LSU (3-5) (plus 23 ½) at Florida (8-1), 7 p.m., ESPN
The winner: Florida.
The score: Florida 42, LSU 17.
The skinny: If Florida was on the road I would be tempted to take LSU, as bad as they are, and the 23 ½ points. But the Gators, who play Alabama next week in the SEC championship game, are going to be excited to play on senior day. This Florida offense, which is averaging 376.7 yards passing per game, could finish as the second-best passing offense in school history (The 2001 team, with Rex Grossman at quarterback, averaged 405.2 yards passing per game).
Kyle Trask (360.3 yards passing per game, 38 touchdowns in nine games) is still among the frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy. The Gators will put up some big numbers against an LSU defense that got boat-raced last week against Alabama (630 total yards).
Gators cover.
Auburn (5-4) at Miss. State (2-6) (plus 6 ½), 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
The winner: Auburn.
The score: Auburn 31, Mississippi State 24.
The skinny: This is what we call a “quality of life” game for Auburn Coach Gus Malzahn. He is not going to get fired if the Tigers lose and finish 5-5 against an All-SEC s schedule. But his quality of life in the offseason will be better. A couple of X-factors here:
For whatever reason, Auburn quarterback Bo Nix tends to play better at home than on the road.
Mississippi State (2-6), which has lost six of its last seven games since a 44-34 win over LSU in its opener, still puts up a lot of yards but does not score a lot of points. The Bulldogs are fourth in the SEC in passing yards (324.4 ypg) but 13th in scoring (18.3 ppg).
North Carolina (7-3) (plus 3 ½) at Miami (8-1), 3:30 p.m., ABC.
The winner: Miami.
The score: Miami 35, North Carolina 31.
The skinny: The Hurricanes will not play in the ACC championship game but they do have a chance to earn a berth in the Orange Bowl if they can beat the Tar Heels this week and Georgia Tech next week. It should be a shootout as North Carolina is averaging 41.1 points per game behind quarterback Sam Howell, who leads the ACC in passing yards per game (312.9). But Miami is also explosive on offense with quarterback D’Eriq King who is third in the ACC in total offense (311.2 yards per game).