Mr. CFB Pick Six: Week 5
We went 3-3 last week against the spread but, my goodness, it could have been better.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
The three we hit on were pretty easy as Tennessee covered 11.5 against Missouri, Georgia easily covered 6.5 against Auburn, and Alabama covered the 17.5 against Texas A&M.
But I should have listened to my gut on Florida-South Carolina (plus 18.5). My first instinct was that with their backs to the wall, Will Muschamp and the Gamecocks would not win but would keep it closer than the experts thought. But I just thought Florida would pick up a late touchdown and cover. They didn’t and won by only 14.
I was positive that Kentucky would beat Ole Miss by more than 6.5. The ‘Cats had three backs over 100 yards and outgained Ole Miss by 100 yards total. Instead they lost (42-41) by a missed extra point in overtime.
And after we saw Mississippi State win at LSU on Sept. 26, who thought Arkansas (plus 17.5), losers of 20 straight SEC games, would win straight up over Mike Leach and the boys? But they did, 21-14.
So after four weeks that puts us at a smooth 11-13 ATS in SEC games.
Let’s give it another shot.
The game: Florida (2-0) at Texas A&M (1-1) (plus 6.5), Noon, ESPN
The pick: Florida.
The score: Florida 31, Texas A&M 24
The skinny: After a serious beatdown by Alabama last week, there is still reason for the Aggies to hope. While Florida has a world-class offense, the Gators are struggling on the defensive side of the ball, giving up 471 yards a game. The question is whether not quarterback Kellen Mond and the Texas A&M offense are good enough to take advantage of it. I think not. Florida wins and covers on the road.
The game: Tennessee (2-0) (plus 12.5) at Georgia (2-0), 3:30 p.m., CBS
The pick: Georgia
The score: Georgia 24, Tennessee 10.
The skinny: Tennessee has one of the best offensive lines in college football and ran the ball very effectively last week against Missouri. Georgia’s defensive line suffocated Auburn last week holding the Tigers to only 39 yards rushing and 216 yards total. If you like trench warfare from the big uglies up front, this is your game. If the line of scrimmage is a dead heat, then it probably comes down to whose quarterback takes care of the ball better. I say that distinction will go to Georgia’s Stetson Bennett IV, who makes his second career start. Georgia wins and covers at home.
The game: Alabama (2-0) at Ole Miss (1-1) (plus 23.5), 7:30 p.m., ESPN
The pick: Ole Miss.
The score: Alabama 45, Ole Miss 24
The skinny: The start of this game has been delayed by 90 minutes as rains from Hurricane Delta were scheduled to go through Oxford on Saturday. The conditions might make it difficult for Alabama to cover that many points. The Crimson Tide has shown their ability to throw the ball in their first two games against Missouri and Texas A&M. Now they’ll get a chance to run behind a very good offensive line on what will probably be a sloppy field. Alabama wins but the Tide doesn’t cover the 23.5.
The game: Mississippi State (1-1) (plus 2.5) at Kentucky (0-2), 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
The pick: Kentucky.
The score: Kentucky 31, Miss. State 28
The skinny: You would think that it would be IMPOSSIBLE for a team to rush for 408 yards and still lose. But Kentucky did to Ole Miss (42-41) with a missed extra point in overtime. Now Kentucky, which a lot of people (including me) had making some noise in the SEC East, is looking 0-3 in the face if the ‘Cats can’t get it done against Mississippi State in Lexington. The concern is the Kentucky pass defense, which has given up 553 yards passing in their first two games. Kentucky gets a late field goal to win and cover.
The game: LSU (1-1) at Missouri (0-2) (plus 14.5) Noon, ESPN
The pick: Missouri.
The score: LSU 28, Missouri 14.
The skinny: The stage is set for a flat performance by LSU, which handled Vanderbilt 41-7 last week. First, the game was moved from Baton Rouge to Columbia, Mo., because of concerns about Hurricane Delta. Then kickoff was moved from 9 p.m. ET to Noon so that LSU can get back to campus at a decent hour. LSU won’t like the early start and will struggle early. LSU wins but the Tigers don’t cover the 14.5.
The game: Arkansas (1-1) (plus 13.5) at Auburn (1-1), 4 p.m., SEC Network
The pick: Auburn.
The score: Auburn 31, Arkansas 17.
The skinny: Auburn quarterback Bo Nix had a tough time last week at Georgia. The offense was held just 216 total yards (39 rushing) in a 27-6 loss in Athens. Chad Morris is Auburn’s new offensive coordinator. Last season he was the head coach at Arkansas but was dismissed. Auburn needs a bounce back game to get ready for three winnable games coming up South Carolina, Ole Miss and LSU. Auburn wins and tacks on a late score to cover.