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There Was a 3.1% Chance of an Interception

'Worst play call in NFL history'? Hardly. Looking at all plays from the 1-yard line over the past 15 seasons, and factoring in time management, the Seahawks' play-calling wasn't ideal, but it wasn't that bad either

by ggramling

The MMQB

Avoid the Dreaded Twos, Fives and Nines!

You have no say over what numbers you'll pull in your Super Bowl squares. But here are your odds of winning

by mmgagne

The MMQB

This One Will Be Close

Early betting lines predict that Super Bowl 49 will be close. Our statistical model agrees. According to the numbers, who is more likely to come out on top on Super Sunday?

by ggramling

The MMQB

Seattle's CenturyLink Field Supremacy

Everyone knows the Seahawks are nearly unbeatable at home, but just how much of a home-field advantage to the Seahawks have over other teams? We dug deep into the numbers to find out

by ggramling

The MMQB

Year in Review: Passing, Offense Trending Up

Aaron Rodgers' overall production in 2014 matched up as one of the best seasons ever by a quarterback. Plus, Russell Wilson's legs carried him into elite company and a look at more analytical trends that surfaced

by dombonvissuto

The MMQB

The Final Over/Under

A college stats professor charts NFL wins, comparing all 32 teams to Vegas and statheads predictions going into the 2014 season

by mmgagne

The MMQB

Sanchez or Foles? It Doesn’t Matter

Nick Foles hasn’t been medically cleared yet, but the Eagles shouldn’t rush him back when that happens. Philadelphia has virtually the same chance of making the playoffs (and winning the Lombardi) with Mark Sanchez under center

by mmgagne

The MMQB

The Myth of Momentum

Conventional wisdom suggests that it’s best to finish the NFL regular season strong rather than simply being the best team in the playoffs. We crunched the numbers and put that theory to the test

by mmgagne

The MMQB

Playoff Scenarios and Probabilities

Among the myriad scenarios, it’s actually conceivable that there could be an eight-way tie at 9-7 (or 10-6), either of which would happen about 1 out of every 1,000 times the NFL played out the final four weeks

by mmgagne

The MMQB

Best Rookie Receiver Class Ever?

From Beckham to Evans to Benjamin, this year's class of first-year receivers has made play after play after play. Has there ever been a better group come into the NFL?

by ggramling

The MMQB

Trending South

The NFL hasn't seen a team with a losing record in the playoffs since 2010. The eventual winner of the NFC South—currently led by the four-win Falcons—could be next, which begs the question: is it the worst division in recent NFL history?

by dombonvissuto

The MMQB

Which Records Will Fall?

Andrew Luck, DeMarco Murray, Justin Houston and Julius Thomas are all chasing history. What are the chances one of those stars rewrites the record book in 2014?

by ggramling

The MMQB

With or Without You

Ray Rice and Adrian Peterson left the Ravens and Vikings in a bind this season, but their absence hasn’t really hurt the teams’ performances

by dombonvissuto

The MMQB

Midseason Surprises and Disappointments

by ggramling

The MMQB

Manning's TD Record: Who Could Break It?

Unbreakable? Maybe not. Here are the six players who have the best chance to one day surpass Manning as the NFL's career leader in touchdown passes

by dombonvissuto

The MMQB

The Case for Tony Romo and Philip Rivers

Discussions on the best quarterback of the past decade generally land on four names—Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers. But there's an argument to be made for two more additions, both of whom are having MVP-like seasons in 2014

by dombonvissuto

The MMQB

How Likely Was the Chargers-Jets Shutout?

You might not be shocked that the dysfunctional Jets couldn't put points on the board in San Diego. But just how frequently can we expect to see shutouts in this age of explosive offenses?

by ggramling

The MMQB

Goal-to-Go: Should NFL Teams Pass or Run?

Chip Kelly came under fire after the Eagles threw two incomplete passes from the 1-yard line, turned the ball over on downs and ultimately lost last Sunday’s game. We crunched the data to see whether running or passing the ball is the right call

by mmgagne