Which rumored KAT trade makes the most sense for the Timberwolves?
When the Minnesota Timberwolves traded for Rudy Gobert, it was a deal that was supposed to alter the franchise. The experiment never got off the ground in Year 1 and it could lead the team to trade Karl-Anthony Towns.
This seemed unlikely last summer when Towns signed a four-year, $224 million super max extension. Still, Bleacher Report's Eric Pincus wrote that the NBA's new collective bargaining agreement could force the Timberwolves to trade Towns due to looming extensions for Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels.
"The new rules don't favor Minnesota," Pincus wrote. "...Edwards is believed to be seeking a max deal (and many around the league believe he'll get it), and McDaniels is likely seeking closer to a $25-30 million starting salary. The team won't be able to afford that, with [Towns] and Gobert combining for over $90 million in 2024-25."
Pincus went on to say that some executives believe that Towns will be gone prior to the start of the 2023-24 season and others believe that he could be traded in the coming weeks.
The latter is more of a reality than you think. Under the current CBA, teams that aren't in the luxury tax can bring back 125% of the outgoing salary plus $100,000 if they sent out more than $19.6 million in a trade.
But when the new CBA kicks in for the 2024-25 season, the Timberwolves will likely be over the second apron – a figure roughly $17.5 million above the luxury tax line – meaning any deal involving Towns will not be able to take back more salary than it sends out.
This decreases the chances of trading Towns under the new CBA and limits the number of suitors in terms of who can absorb Towns' $50 million salary for the 2024-25 season.
So let's say the Timberwolves decide they want to trade Towns this summer. They need to not only decide what would be fair value for a two-time All-NBA forward but also what would help the team improve on the court.
Pincus believes that could center around finding a point guard. Mike Conley was a solid solution after he was acquired in the D'Angelo Russell trade last February, but at age 36, he doesn't fit the Wolves' competitive timeline.
A solution could be to trade for an early pick in this year's draft in order to land top prospect Scoot Henderson. Henderson entered the year as the No. 2 prospect in the draft behind generational phenom and likely No. 1 overall pick Victor Wembanyama but with the Charlotte Hornets already having LaMelo Ball at point guard, Henderson could fall to the Portland Trail Blazers at the No. 3 pick or to the Houston Rockets with the No. 4 pick.
Fortunately for the Timberwolves, both the Trail Blazers and Rockets might be motivated to trade for Towns.
The Trail Blazers are looking to make one last run with Damian Lillard, who criticized the team for throwing in the towel for a higher draft pick at the end of last season. Sean Deveney reported last month that Towns had been linked to the Blazers among other teams as potential trade destinations if Minnesota decides to make a deal this summer, and Towns's contract status could create a four-year window to chase a title.
Aaron Fentress of The Oregonian suggested that a deal involving Anfernee Simons and "a haul of draft picks" could be a potential offer for Towns, but including the No. 3 overall pick in this year's draft would be "too much."
"Simons and Edwards would instantly form one of the most dynamic backcourt in the NBA and Simons would be free to run a team rather than play out of position at shooting guard next to Lillard," Fentress wrote. "It would be the perfect move for the Blazers, but likely not something the Timberwolves would consider unless they were also getting [Shaedon Sharpe] or Portland's lottery pick."
The Rockets are also looking to get out of the NBA's basement as their 2024 first-round pick was sent to the Oklahoma City Thunder after they traded for Russell Westbrook in 2019. Although that pick is top-4 protected, Houston's timeline could be further accelerated this summer if James Harden returns to the team in free agency.
Although the Rockets could dangle the fourth and 20th overall picks in the draft, there is no guarantee that Henderson would still be on the board at No. 4, opening the door to Houston's stash of young talent.
Pincus named Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Segun and Tari Eason as players who could be involved in a deal, but they may not appeal to the Timberwolves who are looking for players that can help them win right now.
That could open another door to lead the Timberwolves to acquire Dejountae Murray. The Wolves were reportedly interested in acquiring Murray before he was traded to the Atlanta Hawks last summer, but the Hawks are now in their own brand of salary cap hell after doling out large contracts to Trae Young and John Collins.
"Murray is due $18.2 million this season but may not be open to an extension limited to a $25.4 million salary," Pincus wrote. "Unless Atlanta can shed significant salary elsewhere, they may not be able to afford Murray at his current price, let alone on a new deal in his likely asking range above $30 million."
Pincus went on to theorize a three-team deal that could see the Timberwolves acquire Murray and Smith for Towns and the Hawks to acquire the No. 4 pick and "other players and draft pieces." He also mentioned there are several avenues that could also include Collins and the 20th overall pick in the draft.
Would that deal also top potential bids by the Knicks or Boston Celtics?
Whatever the Timberwolves decide to do, it would benefit them to at least explore trading Towns. If they can find pieces to build around Edwards, it could improve the team's outlook which could be the difference between building a contender or re-living the Kevin Garnett era.
