Pablo Lopez-for-Luis Arraez trade is win-win for Twins and Marlins
When the Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins entered last offseason, they had two different objectives.
The Twins starting pitching was some of the worst in baseball and they needed someone to step up and anchor the staff. The Marlins had been one of MLB's worst offenses, ranking 28th with 3.62 runs per game.
Both teams didn't have the financial means to solve their problems in free agency, so a call was made and the Twins swapped Luis Arraez and Pablo López in early January.
What was a controversial trade – as no defending batting champion had been traded since Rod Carew was traded by the Twins to the Angels in 1978 – has turned out to be a blessing for both sides as Arraez and López have made a giant impact with their new teams.
For the Marlins, that means an impact bat at the top of their lineup. Twins fans were sad to see Arraez go because of his likable personality and the sense that he was breaking out toward becoming a superstar and after making the All-Star team and winning his first batting title at age 25, it seemed like that was the case.
But there were also reasons to ask if Arraez had hit his ceiling. His .316 average was the lowest by a batting champion since Tony Gwynn hit .313 in 1988 His eight home runs also seemed like an outlier since he had hit six homers in his previous three seasons and just six home runs in over seven seasons in the minors.
After spending most of last year at first base, there was also a question about where Arraez would play in the field, but he has doused all of those concerns with a blazing-fast start.
In 15 games this season, Arraez is hitting .471/.526/.647 with a 1.173 OPS. Of his 24 hits, six have gone for extra bases and his pinch-hit single on Saturday against the Arizona Diamondbacks helped the Marlins win their fourth straight game.
Arraez hasn't solved all of the Marlins' problems – they are 8-8 and rank last with 3.06 runs scored per game – but Arraez is a foundational piece for an offense that is supported on the mound by reigning Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara and Jesus Lazardo, who dominated the Twins earlier this season.
For Twins fans, they're probably happy that Arraez is thriving in Miami but they're even happier knowing that López has lived up to his end of the deal.
When the trade was made, López was considered to be a top-of-the-rotation arm but not one that could anchor a staff. With a 10-10 record and a 3.75 ERA, López had the stats to back it up but his analytics according to Statcast suggested he was a good but not great pitcher.
Baseball Savant
Four starts into his Twins career, López looks like a different pitcher. He owns a 1-1 record with a 1.73 ERA but also leads MLB with 33 strikeouts and just six walks in 26 innings.
The key for Lopez has been the addition of a sweeper. Opposing hitters are hitting just .111 against the new pitch while López has thrown it 21.9 percent of the time. The new pitch has also had an effect on his secondary pitches where opposing hitters are hitting .048 against his changeup.
The overall effect is that López has surged to the top of the board in almost every analytical category including a 96th-percentile chase rate and a whiff rate in the 87th percentile.
Baseball Savant
These numbers come from an extremely small sample size but the Twins seem convinced. López was connected to Minnesota when the Twins were shopping Eddie Rosario prior to the 2020 season and are reportedly closing in on a four-year, $73.5 million extension that would keep him in Minnesota through the 2027 season.
The Twins also received Jose Salas and Byron Chourio in the deal but even if those prospects don't amount to much, the Twins have already gotten what they wanted in the trade.
If the Marlins' offense picks up behind Arraez in the coming weeks, both teams will be happy with what they got in the deal. That could mean good things for Miami but more importantly, give the Twins the ace they've been looking for since Johan Santana left town.
