The Twins should beware of the trade deadline reliever
The Minnesota Twins were late in Tuesday afternoon's game with the Cleveland Guardians. Holding onto a 2-1 lead in the eighth inning, Rocco Baldelli was ready to turn to his bullpen. For most teams across Major League Baseball, this a sign that the game is over. For Emilio Pagan, this meant the game was over for a different reason.
Pagan walked the first two batters he faced and then uncorked a wild pitch to allow both runners to advance to second and third. When Ahmed Rosario's go-ahead, two-run single found its way through the infield, there was plenty of screaming but none louder than Twins fans begging for their team to find some bullpen help.
This presents the Twins with a tricky situation. Minnesota's bullpen owns a respectable 3.87 ERA that ranks 15th in MLB but their performance gets worse as the game goes along.
With their biggest issues coming in the seventh and eighth innings, the Twins need to find a pair of set-up arms to get to Jhoan Duran, but that's where things get difficult.
Non-contending teams will always sell high on relievers because they are a replaceable commodity. Consider the Twins' fire sale in 2018, where they traded Ryan Pressly to the Houston Astros for Gilberto Celestino and Jorge Alcala.
Even though Pressly has turned into one of the best relievers in baseball, the Twins developed a comparable arm in Duran, who was acquired by trading Eduardo Escobar. Meanwhile, Celestino developed into a solid depth outfielder for the Twins and Alcala is a key arm in the Twins' bullpen when healthy, giving them more value out of the deal.
The Twins also cashed in on Brusdar Graterol's rise during the 2019 season. After impressing scouts with his triple-digit fastball, the Twins flipped him for Kenta Maeda, who finished second in American League Cy Young voting during his first season in Minnesota.
With five players in the bullpen that have been drafted and developed by the organization, the Twins probably know they can not only grow their own relievers. The problem is that when that well runs dry and the price to replenish it goes through the roof.
The 2019 trade deadline was a good example as the Twins kicked the tires on several relievers. Shane Greene, Will Smith and Kirby Yates were all considered hot commodities. Greene was the only reliever traded but the Twins opted to make a couple of lower-tier deals for Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson.
The Dyson deal was a complete disaster due to a shoulder injury and a domestic violence incident but the Twins didn't miss out by acquiring a big-name reliever. In fact, Smith is the only reliever out of the group that has continued to produce at the same level and even he left the San Francisco Giants to join the Atlanta Braves on a three-year, $40 million contract.
There are exceptions to this, but even those are pricy. The New York Yankees flipped Aroldis Chapman to the Chicago Cubs at the trade deadline in 2016 and got Gleyber Torres and three other prospects in return.
Chapman was lights out for the Cubs on the way to a World Series title, but finding a difference-making reliever is a rare occurrence and it's unknown whether one exists at this year's deadline.
Does Chicago Cubs reliever David Robertson make the Twins better than the Yankees? Does David Bednar complete an October push? Do the Twins really want to reunite with Alex Colome? These are all things to consider.
If that doesn't scare Twins fans off, maybe Matt Capps will. Terry Ryan made a deal with the Washington Nationals to acquire Capps during the 2010 season in exchange for top catching prospect Wilson Ramos.
Capps went on to play three seasons in Minnesota, but never touched the 2.00 ERA he posted in 27 games with Minnesota in the second half of 2010. Meanwhile, Ramos went on to enjoy a 12-year career behind the plate and made the All-Star team twice.
Was it worth acquiring Capps to get swept by the Yankees? Or could the Twins have used Ramos as injuries forced Joe Mauer to first base?
It's a slippery slope to navigate, but the Twins have other factors to consider. Doing nothing could doom a team that appears to be destined for the playoffs but also hurt their chances of contending in the future.
If the Twins upgrade in other areas, such as the pitching rotation, maybe a reliever can make a huge difference. If adding to their bullpen is their only answer, they need to decide if the risk is worth the reward.
