Quarterback timelines in the new age of QB movement
If you scroll back in the history books of the National Football League, you will find all sorts of examples of teams trying to improve the quarterback position even when you wouldn’t expect it.
Once upon a time, the San Francisco 49ers traded for Steve Young to sit behind Joe Montana. The Green Bay Packers picked an angsty rocket-armed QB from Cal while Brett Favre will still out there slingin’ it. Jim Plunkett won the Super Bowl for the Raiders and they still went to their first-round pick Marc Wilson the next season.
Teams have always been crazy when it comes to quarterbacks because their success revolves around it. The statistical analysis world may bemoan the use of QB Wins as a metric but try telling a head coach or owner that a losing quarterback was totally fine because of his completion percentage over expected. Quarterbacks hold the keys to franchises. Before Peyton Manning, the Colts went from 1977 to 1997 without a double-digit win season. From 1999 to 2010, they only failed to win 10-plus games once. Maybe it’s fair to credit Mr. Manning with those W’s but that’s a discussion for another day.
Anyway, the point is that every team’s timeline revolves around their quarterback, which in recent years combined with inflating salaries and an increase in player empowerment has resulted in offseason quarterback movement accelerating at a rapid rate. In the last three offseasons, we have seen Tom Brady leave the Patriots, Matthew Stafford traded from the Lions, the 49ers picked a QB third overall despite having gone to the Super Bowl with Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan acquired by the Colts, Russell Wilson traded to Denver, two teams trade for Carson Wentz and the Cleveland Browns acquire a QB facing imminent suspension after winning 11 games two years prior.
If recent history tells us anything, more of this madness is on the way as teams desperately take swings at quarterbacks with hopes of either landing the next Peyton Manning in the draft or the next Brady or Stafford that joins a new team and instantly wins the Super Bowl.
Related: Evaluating Super Bowl windows and how far away the Vikings are
Heading into 2022, every team appears to have its quarterback direction set. You can place all the QBs into the categories of either a franchise QB, a young QB with hopes of being great or a veteran who is filling the void. But all of these situations are tenuous. Which ones are the most likely to change by the start of the 2023 season? Which QB jobs hold the future in the balance? Let’s look at a few that could shift the entire tide of the league in the future…
Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers
This offseason Rodgers signed a three-year contract extension worth $150 million, though a closer reading makes the deal only look completely concrete through 2023. All signs point to Rodgers playing at least two more years but the superstar’s aloofness makes it very difficult to predict when he will walk away. Should he choose to hang ‘em up after this season, the Packers would be sent scrambling for an answer at quarterback (assuming that Jordan Love will not get a swing at it). Were Rodgers to exit stage left, the timeline of every other NFC North team would be accelerated, even if they found another veteran option to remain competitive.
Philadelphia Eagles, Jalen Hurts
The Eagles have stacked their roster over the last few offseasons, most recently by acquiring AJ Brown in a trade with the Tennessee Titans. Now they need to find out whether Jalen Hurts, who enters his third season in the NFL this year, is good enough to take them beyond the first round of the playoffs. Hurts finished 10th by PFF’s grading system but hasn’t proven himself as a passer yet. With Philly’s set of weapons, including Dallas Goedert and Devonta Smith, they would be an attractive team to join for an available veteran QB should they move on from Hurts or for a rookie QB to step into an advantageous situation. They will, however, be in a tricky spot if Hurts plays well enough to win the NFC East but then requires a large contract extension.
Las Vegas Raiders, Derek Carr
Are you a fan of non-committal contract extensions? Well, you’ll love Derek Carr’s deal. Per OverTheCap.com, on February 10th 2023, Carr’s salary becomes guaranteed, leaving the team with a decision following this year to stick with him at a $35 million cap number in 2023 or cut/trade him. Even if the Raiders stick with Carr for 2023, only $7 million of his 2024 salary is guaranteed and they would carry just $3.8 million in dead cap by trading him. It’s essentially a year-to-year deal, meaning that Carr could come available if the Raiders struggle this season and decide they want to go a different direction at QB. By acquiring Davante Adams, the Raiders have now given the veteran quarterback all he needs to succeed. If the Raiders can overcome a tough division to make the playoffs, it seems he will be a Raider for a long time to come. If they struggle, Carr’s availability could be very attractive for QB-needy teams.
Tennessee Titans, Ryan Tannehill
If you are hanging out with your football-loving friends, here’s a bit of trivia you can use: Who has the highest salary cap hit among all players in the NFL in 2022? Mahomes? Donald? Rodgers? Nope. It’s Ryan Tannehill. The Titans reworked his contract last year, resulting in an enormous $38.6 million in cap space this year and $36.6 million in 2023. However, his guaranteed money runs out after this season and it will only cost the Titans $18.8 million in dead cap space to cut or trade him. Unless the former Dolphin takes the Titans deep into the postseason, this could very well be his final year in Tennessee. If the Titans do move on, Tannehill, 35, is likely to garner a ton of interest from QB-less teams in their winning windows considering he’s gone 30-13 with a 102.0 quarterback rating in the regular season with Tennessee.
Miami Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa
The Dolphins are hoping that a new head coach and a trade to acquire Tyreek Hill can boost their former fifth overall draft pick. The first two years of his career have not been particularly inspiring though as Tagovialoa has averaged under 200 yards per game passing and averages 6.6 yards per attempt. If the Dolphins’ QB position opens up, it will draw tons of interest. Miami has been stacking its supporting cast for years and Hill is the cherry on top to one of the NFL’s best groups of weapons. Tagovialoa might get another shot somewhere else but if he can’t succeed with Mike McDaniel and these receivers, he’s probably destined for a future as a backup.
Washington Commanders, Carson Wentz
In the light of day it’s worth questioning whether Washington gave up too much for Carson Wentz but by acquiring him they did allow flexibility with their future at quarterback. He has zero guaranteed dollars after 2022 and $0 dead cap if Washington cuts or trades him. He’s in D.C. on a one-year deal unless the team decides otherwise. By keeping receiver Terry McLaurin, Washington sent up a flare that they are going to put a good group around the quarterback for years to come, meaning that if Wentz doesn’t work out, they will be another club that can offer veterans who are available a good landing spot (at least roster wise) or place a drafted QB in a prime position.
New York Giants, Daniel Jones
The Giants chose not to exercise Jones’ fifth-year option, meaning it’s make or break time. They have given him a new coach in Brian Daboll, whose recent history with Josh Allen is as impressive as it gets. If he can’t thrive with an offense that leans into an athletic quarterback, it’s going to be difficult for Jones to succeed anywhere. The Giants have stacked their offensive line with top draft picks and have enough weapons to be another interesting landing location, so long as Daboll proves that he can be a head coach.
Minnesota Vikings, Kirk Cousins
The Vikings are slightly more committed to Cousins than some of these other teams with their QBs but only slightly. He reportedly has a no trade clause in his deal but it’s unclear how much power that clause wields. The Vikings can trade Cousins after this season with $18.7 million in dead cap.
If Cousins puts together a terrific season and clicks with Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings may choose to play out his deal through 2023. If they go deep into the playoffs, they might even draft a position other than QB in 2023. But the bar has to be set extremely high not to pick a quarterback next year considering his age and expense.
What the rest of these QB situations demonstrate is that next year there could be a metric ton of teams looking to upgrade their quarterback situation, meaning that the Vikings would get trade offers for Cousins just as they did this offseason. And there will be plenty of other veteran QBs on the market if they choose not to go the draft route.
