The long recruitment of Arch Manning looked wide open not too long ago, but it now appears the No. 1 2023 prospect will be picking from just two schools.
That's according to the On3 Sports Prediction Machine, which has narrowed Manning's choice to one current SEC school and one future SEC school.
Based on recruiting predictions from analysts, Texas is currently in the lead to sign Manning with a 50.3 percent chance to earn the quarterback's pledge.
Georgia is running a close second at 44.0 percent, while Alabama places a distant third, at just 3.8 percent.
Vegas tends to agree, with Oddschecker giving Texas even money to sign Manning, with Georgia at +150, followed by Alabama at +2000.
What is the better fit?
Texas is a program in transition. A long-time college football power, it last won the national championship in the famous 2006 Rose Bowl, but has struggled to find its identity since, winning 10 games just once in the last decade and making only four appearances in the AP Top 25 rankings.
Second-year coach Steve Sarkisian, coming off a 5-7 debut season, is tasked with reviving the program's fortunes, and to that end just signed 5-star transfer quarterback Quinn Ewers.
Some analysts believe Manning would want to avoid a potential QB competition with Ewers and instead commit to a school where he would have a better chance of starting sooner.
Georgia has fared better in recent years despite not fielding a program-defining, dynamic player at the quarterback position.
Kirby Smart has six AP Top 10 finishes in the last six years, with two College Football Playoff appearances, and is the reigning national champion.
Georgia also has elite prospects at the quarterback position looking to get starting reps, including Gunner Stockton, Brock Vandagriff, and Carson Beck.
But most analysts favor Manning to win the starting job in a theoretical competition with those players.
Is Alabama out of the race?
Not if you're going by Manning's official visit to Tuscaloosa recently, in which he was spotted taking selfies in an Alabama football uniform.
That would have to indicate some kind of genuine interest, but analysts have been quick to take Bama out of the running after it earned a commitment from 4-star 2023 quarterback Eli Holstein, a former Texas A&M pledge.
Arch Manning stats
As a junior at Isidore Newman in New Orleans, Manning threw for 1,947 yards and 26 touchdowns to four interceptions with another seven rushing scores.
In his high school career, he’s thrown for 6,307 yards as a starter in three seasons with 81 touchdowns passing and 19 rushing.
He averages almost 13 yards per pass, over 212 passing yards per game, and has 18 career interceptions.
Manning is the consensus No. 1 quarterback and overall player in the 2023 college football recruiting class, according to all services.