ESPN computer predicts Big Ten football order of finish in 2025

How the ESPN analytical prediction model ranks every Big Ten football team in 2025.

Where things stand in the preseason Big Ten football rankings, according to ESPN's prediction models. / Ron Chenoy | Imagn

Winners of the last two national championships and a big beneficiary of conference realignment, the Big Ten is riding high as college football’s most accomplished league in that time, but there’s plenty of competition threatening that dominance in 2025.

A key moment of the preseason has arrived, as ESPN has revealed its complete 136-team college football rankings, a gold mine of analytical data and team predictions that look to forecast how each team will perform in the months to come.

How do things look in the Big Ten this coming season? Here’s what the computer models expect in the conference this year, and where each team will finish in the final standings.

18. Purdue

Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.0%

Projection: 3.2 wins

Need to know: You’ll be hard-pressed to find many positive predictions for Purdue after going 1-11 a year ago, but bringing on head coach Barry Odom was a critical hire after his successful tenure at UNLV. His offensive line and receiver group undergo major transformation, and the Boilermakers return zero starters from a defense that allowed 40 points per game in ‘24.

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17. Northwestern

Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.0%

Projection: 4.1 wins

Need to know: Three returning blockers for incoming quarterback Preston Stone are something to build around, as will lead back Cam Porter and transfer wideout Griffin Wilde, and while the Wildcats fill holes at linebacker and in the secondary, they have a decent line up front.

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16. Rutgers

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.1%

Projection: 5.8 wins

Need to know: Coming off consecutive winning seasons, the Scarlet Knights will be tested in games against Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State, losing their top back and all but two defensive starters, but retains quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis, who had 18 touchdowns a year ago.

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15. Michigan State

Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.1%

Projection: 5.2 wins

Need to know: Aidan Chiles returns at quarterback, and should get some help from transfers like Chrishon McCray and Omari Kelly at receiver to boost a Spartans offense that posted under 20 points on average per game last season.

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14. UCLA

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.1%

Projection: 5.4 wins

Need to know: Nico Iamaleava was a monster transfer gain, but the former Vols quarterback is looking at a receiver rotation that lost its five best targets and will work behind an entirely new offensive line.

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13. Maryland

Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.2%

Projection: 5.9 wins

Need to know: With one Big Ten victory a year ago and losing 7 of its other 8 league games by more than 2 touchdowns, the Terrapins are starting over, replacing three of their offensive linemen and three of their most productive receivers, all with a new quarterback and a defense that allowed 36 points per game last fall.

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12. Minnesota

David Banks-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.3%

Projection: 6.9 wins

Need to know: Expect the Gophers’ offense to rely on lead back Darius Taylor right away as they search for a long-term option at quarterback working behind a line that returns three starters, but a defense that brings back just five.

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11. Wisconsin

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.4%

Projection: 5.6 wins

Need to know: Not what Badgers fans are hoping for, as Luke Fickell is just 13-13 in two years, faces a brutal schedule, returns an offense that averaged under 23 points, and a run defense that was 17th in the Big Ten last year.

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10. Iowa

Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.6%

Projection: 6.2 wins

Need to know: Tim Lester’s offense nearly doubled its scoring output a year ago, and the addition of transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski should boost those numbers more, provided the Hawkeyes can provide him with enough legitimate targets to offset the loss of lead back Kaleb Johnson.

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9. Illinois

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.6%

Projection: 6.8 wins

Need to know: A rough prediction for an Illini team that won 10 games a year ago and returns plenty of experience, not least quarterback Luke Altmyer and its entire offensive line, not to mention Gabe Jacas, a gifted edge rusher who had 13 negative plays in ‘24.

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8. Washington

Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.8%

Projection: 7.1 wins

Need to know: Demond Williams is a quarterback to watch after he posted 1,226 all-purpose yards with 10 TDs in a limited role last season, and he has help in the form of rusher Jonah Coleman and wideout Denzel Boston.

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7. Indiana

David Banks-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 0.9%

Projection: 7.5 wins

Need to know: College football’s surprise playoff team a year ago, the Hoosiers have some turnover, but quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a legitimate pickup to pair with wide receiver Elijah Sarratt, while key foundational pieces of this defense are back, including linebacker Aidan Fisher and corner D’Angelo Ponds.

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6. Nebraska

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 1.5%

Projection: 7.5 wins

Need to know: Dylan Raiola should benefit from the addition of offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen, as well as transfer wideouts Nyziah Hunter and Dane Key, while linemen Rocco Spindler and Elijah Pritchett are key acquisitions to the Cornhuskers’ rotation.

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5. USC

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 4.2%

Projection: 8.4 wins

Need to know: Not quite the USC standard, but while Jayden Maiava embraces the QB1 role for good, in tandem with Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane at receiver, the Trojans need much better offensive line play and for D’Anton Lynn’s defense to keep getting better.

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4. Michigan

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 6.0%

Projection: 8.4 wins

Need to know: While the Wolverines install their new quarterback, either No. 1 recruit Bryce Underwood or veteran Jake Garcia, they’ll lean on a backfield tandem of Jordan Marshall and Justice Haynes, and hope new contributors can replace some elite outgoing talent in the front seven.

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3. Oregon

Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 19.1%

Projection: 10.0 wins

Need to know: Returning just four starters on defense and rebuilding their offensive line, the Ducks have some structural questions to work out, but have former 5-star quarterback Dante Moore stepping in, alongside transfer back Makhi Hughes and receiver Dakorien Moore in an offense that should move.

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2. Penn State

Dan Rainville / USA TODAY NETWORK

Chance to win Big Ten: 25.1%

Projection: 10.2 wins

Need to know: It looks like the model is still reluctant to give the Nittany Lions an edge over the Buckeyes, despite boasting some of college football’s best offensive continuity, with quarterback Drew Allar and rushers Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen returning, and with Jim Knowles calling this defense.

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1. Ohio State

Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 40.3%

Projection: 10.4 wins

Need to know: Two new coordinators, a new quarterback, new running backs, and replacing their new elite pass rushers. It’s a tall order for the reigning national champion Buckeyes, testing how well Ryan Day can coach this team back into the playoff. Jeremiah Smith, college football’s best receiver, is back, leading what is likely the nation’s premier receiving group again.

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