College football picks for Week 1 top games today

Making our final picks for the biggest Week 1 college football games today.

SI locks in our final picks for the biggest Week 1 college football games as the 2024 season kicks off today. / Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK

College football undergoes a historic series of changes starting in 2024 including a major realignment of the major conferences and an expansion of the sport's playoff from four to 12 teams. Now, as that season of change kicks off today, let's lock in our final picks for the biggest games.

The expanded playoff means that an early-season loss is no longer catastrophic for national championship contenders, but it's still better to win, and the Week 1 schedule will give some of those teams a perfect opportunity to make an important statement right off the bat.

College football Week 1 picks today

Percentage predictions courtesy College Football Power Index computer model

Western Kentucky at Alabama

WKU: 2.6%
Alabama: 97.4%

College Football HQ picks: Alabama. No brainer here as Kalen DeBoer makes his Crimson Tide debut against a Hilltopper defense that will struggle keeping up with Jalen Milroe and Co.

Prediction ... Alabama vs. Western Kentucky

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Fresno State at Michigan

Fresno State: 10.9%
Michigan: 89.1%

College Football HQ picks: Michigan. Sherrone Moore steps in for Jim Harbaugh with big roster questions including at quarterback, but returning defensive talent should keep this one out of reach.

Prediction ... Michigan vs. Fresno State

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Penn State at West Virginia

Penn State: 77.7%
West Virginia: 22.3%

College Football HQ picks: Penn State. Both these teams can run the ball with variety and power, but the Nittany Lions' defense is the better of the two by far, especially up front.

Prediction ... Penn State vs. West Virginia

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Miami at Florida

Florida: 57.7%
Miami: 42.3%

College Football HQ picks: Miami. This one could go either way given the Hurricanes have yet to acclimate their new players in a game setting and the Gators' home-field advantage, but Miami's skill threats and run defense should pull it out.

Prediction ... Miami vs. Florida

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Notre Dame at Texas A&M

Notre Dame: 58.6%
Texas A&M: 41.4%

College Football HQ picks: Texas A&M. Two good defenses on the same field, but the Aggies' front seven should have the easy edge against an Irish line making huge replacements and installing a new quarterback with an injury history.

Prediction ... Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M

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Clemson vs. Georgia

Georgia: 82.4%
Clemson: 17.6%

College Football HQ picks: Georgia. Clemson can frustrate the Bulldogs with its stout front seven for a while, but the Tigers don't have the firepower to put point on the board at the same clip as Georgia, which returns quarterback Carson Beck and an all-star cast around him.

Prediction ... Georgia vs. Clemson

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