ESPN computer predicts college football conference champions in 2025

Predicting each conference champion in college football in 2025, based off ESPN's preseason computer prediction model.

These college football teams have the best chance to win their respective conferences in 2025. / Jay Janner/American-Statesman / USA TODAY NETWORK

We’re inching closer to the college football season, with analysts announcing their predictions for what to expect ahead of the 2025 kickoff.

That includes the ESPN Football Power Index, which announced its projections for which teams have the best chance to win their conferences this coming year.

ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.

More: ESPN reveals 136-team college football rankings

Rankings and projections are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season, using a combination of analytics, quality of opponents, and a team’s schedule.

What college football teams have the best chance to win their respective conferences this season?

Predicting College Football’s Conference Champions

Mountain West: Boise State

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Chance to win MWC: 45.6%

To make CFP: 25.2%

Need to know: Ashton Jeanty is out of the picture, but Maddux Madsen returns at quarterback in tandem with enough production to keep the Broncos the preseason favorite to make the playoff out of the Group of Five ranks.

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AAC: Tulane

Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

Chance to win AAC: 45.4%

To make CFP: 24.3%

Need to know: A little more than half of Tulane’s production comes back after a 7-1 run in AAC play a year ago, but the offense won’t have its starting quarterback, three line starters, and gets younger at wide receiver, as will a secondary undergoing major turnover.

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Big Ten: Ohio State

Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Chance to win Big Ten: 40.3%

To make CFP: 70.6%

Need to know: The computers are sticking with the national champion Buckeyes out of the Big Ten, despite their losing both coordinators, their quarterback, lead rushers, two blockers, and their defensive end pairing. But they still have a strong receiver group and some quality incoming transfers.

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Conference USA: Liberty

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Chance to win CUSA: 37.9%

To make CFP: 5.2%

Need to know: The loss of Kaidon Salter, the quarterback who left for Colorado this year, hurts the offense, as does the departure of wideout Treon Sibley, but this might still be the best receiving corps in the conference and the Flames face a winnable schedule.

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SEC: Texas

Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 34.1%

To make CFP: 83.9%

Need to know: A stacked roster on defense, in the backfield, and especially at wide receiver, the big question is former No. 1 overall recruit Arch Manning, who takes over for good under center as the Longhorns look like the near consensus favorites in the SEC.

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ACC: Clemson

Ken Ruinard- staff / USA TODAY NETWORK

Chance to win ACC: 34.0%

To make CFP: 47.3%

Need to know: Cade Klubnik took a huge step last season, posting over 3,600 yards with 36 touchdowns and running for 7 more. He’s working with a promising group of receivers and behind a strong line, while the Tigers’ defense could be poised for an overhaul under new coordinator Tom Allen with names like TJ Parker and Peter Woods working up front.

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Big 12: Kansas State

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Chance to win Big 12: 19.9%

To make CFP: 22.2%

Need to know: Avery Johnson is a proven dual threat at quarterback and Dylan Edwards returns to man the backfield. The Wildcats were the only power team with 3 players averaging at least 5.4 yards per carry, but this defense needs to get better when it comes to the turnover differential.

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