ESPN computer predicts SEC football order of finish in 2025

Where each SEC football team will finish in the standings in 2025, according to ESPN's preseason computer prediction model.

Predicting the SEC football order of finish in 2025. / Joshua L. Jones / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Left out of the national championship celebrations for the last two seasons, the SEC is eager to retake its mantle as college football’s most dominant and accomplished conference, and there are plenty of teams in the running to do precisely that.

ESPN has revealed its preseason 136-team college football rankings, a database of predictive analytics that look to forecast how each team and conference is expected to fare in every game of the forthcoming 2025 football season.

Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance. 

Rankings and scores predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.

Here’s what the model makes of the SEC this coming season, and where each team will finish in the eventual standings in 2025.

16. Mississippi State

Matt Bush-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 0.0%

Projection: 4.4 wins

Need to know: Not much faith in the Bulldogs from any prediction models after going winless in SEC play a year ago, and not returning much to build around, save quarterback Blake Shapen.

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15. Vanderbilt

Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 0.0%

Projection: 4.8 wins

Need to know: Not quite what the Commodores are hoping for after showing such promise a year ago, but Diego Pavia is back at quarterback to lead this offense and prove this team can make another little run.

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14. Kentucky

Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 0.1%

Projection: 5.6 wins

Need to know: More roster turnover for Mark Stoops, including at quarterback after signing transfer SEC journeyman Zach Calzada, but the Wildcats should have a decent run game to build out from.

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13. Arkansas

Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 0.5%

Projection: 6.1 wins

Need to know: Sam Pittman bought himself some time after an improved outing last year, but 7-6 won’t cut it in 2025. Taylen Green will handle the offense, but he’ll have largely a new cast around him, especially on a receiver rotation undergoing big turnover.

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12. Missouri

Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 0.6%

Projection: 6.9 wins

Need to know: Eli Drinkwitz oversees the departure of Missouri’s most important offensive players, but he still has a solid defensive rotation returning seven starters and gaining Georgia transfer edge rusher Damon Wilson.

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11. Florida

Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK

Chance to win SEC: 1.0%

Projection: 6.4 wins

Need to know: Not quite what the Gators are hoping for after such a strong finish to last season, including that upset over play0ff hopeful Ole Miss, and returning DJ Lagway at quarterback, a solid backfield, talented receivers, and a promising defensive unit.

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10. Oklahoma

Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 1.2%

Projection: 6.9 wins

Need to know: Brent Venables better hope he pulls off something better than an 11th place finish in the SEC. Oklahoma’s transition into the league didn’t start off very well, but John Mateer at quarterback and Jaydn Ott at tailback should help boost this offense.

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9. South Carolina

Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 1.8%

Projection: 7.3 wins

Need to know: There’s some turnover on the Gamecocks’ elite defense, but Dylan Stewart is back on the edge and LaNorris Sellers returns as one of the SEC’s best young quarterbacks after posting 343 yards per game a year ago.

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8. Auburn

Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 1.8%

Projection: 7.5 wins

Need to know: This is one of the SEC’s best wide receiver rooms, especially after signing transfer Eric Singleton from Georgia Tech, and former five-star quarterback Jackson Arnold steps into a starting role.

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7. Ole Miss

Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 2.8%

Projection: 8.3 wins

Need to know: Portal King Lane Kiffin has a chance to prove his title after watching so much of the Rebels’ talent walk out the door. Not much returns on this defense, while youngster Austin Simmons steps into Jaxson Dart’s QB1 role.

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6. LSU

Scott Kinser-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 3.5%

Projection: 7.9 wins

Need to know: This would be another step down for Brian Kelly in his short tenure at LSU, one that fans would not tolerate. Garrett Nussmeier returns as QB1 after leading one of college football’s top aerial attacks, and Harold Perkins is back in the middle of this defense.

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5. Tennessee

Tennessee Volunteers Athletics

Chance to win SEC: 4.2%

Projection: 8.7 wins

Need to know: Joey Aguilar steps into Nico Iamaleava’s place at quarterback, and while he’s a proven producer throwing the ball, he’s also prone to turnovers. This should be another solid defense, even without James Pearce coming off the edge.

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4. Texas A&M

Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 4.3%

Projection: 8.1 wins

Need to know: Marcel Reed steps in to command what should be a potent offense with big-play talent at receiver, continuity in the run game, and one of the nation’s most experienced offensive lines, but can Reed get more efficient throwing the ball?

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3. Alabama

Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 17.2%

Projection: 9.6 wins

Need to know: Kalen DeBoer is hovering right around 10 wins in this prediction, entering Year 2 needing to show improvement from his 9-4 debut, returning a solid defense, stellar receiving talent, and an elite offensive line, but the big question remains at the quarterback position.

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2. Georgia

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 26.9%

Projection: 10.1 wins

Need to know: Those three brutal road games the Bulldogs played a year ago are all at home this time around, against Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss, but Kirby Smart faces another test filling plenty of holes on both sides of the ball.

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1. Texas

Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Chance to win SEC: 34.1%

Projection: 10.4 wins

Need to know: Arch Manning gets all the attention, but the Longhorns are stacked around him, boasting arguably the SEC’s top defense and a group of wide receivers that are among the nation’s best. 

More: ESPN number-crunchers predict SEC football teams’ record in 2025

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