It's a mystery: What's happened to defending Cup champ Kyle Larson this season?
Going into the 2022 Cup Series season, Kyle Larson was the most feared man in NASCAR. He entered the year fresh off of one of the most dominant seasons in the sport’s modern era, as he amassed 10 wins en route to his first career Cup championship.
Considering what Larson accomplished in his first season with Hendrick Motorsports, the 29-year-old hot shoe had the Cup Series garage terrified of an encore performance this season.
Not only did Larson dominate the Cup Series, but he also became the biggest name in dirt racing last year. Across every series he ran in 2021, he won 29 total races. At one point, it began to look like if it had an engine, Larson could drive it better than anyone else in the country. That level of dominance made him a feared man whenever he strapped on his helmet.
Although his 10 wins put him amongst elite company such as Richard Petty, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Dale Earnhardt Sr., there were also plenty of races last year where Larson was contending for the win only to come up just short. Aside from his 10 wins, Larson amassed six second-place finishes. In fact, it seemed like Larson could have won half of last year's Cup races if Lady Luck worked in his favor.
However, this year has not been quite as kind to Larson. Through 16 races this season, Larson only has one win, with six top fives, eight top tens, and 273 laps led. For comparison, he had three wins, nine-top fives, ten top tens, and 1,161 laps led through 16 races last year.
What's worse, instead of being ranked No. 1 in the standings (teammate Chase Elliott holds down that spot), Larson enters this weekend's race at Nashville a mediocre seventh in the NASCAR Cup rankings.
To his credit, outside of laps led, Larson is not too far off of his performance last year. Yet, the laps led tell a story of Larson’s dominance last year. It was at this point last year that Larson began to hit his stride with his new team. After competing week in and week out, he finally began to translate his speed into wins. It was at this point where Larson went from a championship contender to the championship favorite last year.
Unfortunately for Larson fans, this point in the year seems to mark his regression back from favorite to a contender. Even though he started to turn things around this time last season, he has not shown the same dominant speed up to this point to indicate that he can repeat his insane second-half run that he had just a year earlier.
Especially considering he had to deal with growing pains last year, the lack of dominance seems to carry far more weight. With no momentum or signs of potential, Larson is a wild card as we move closer to the second half of the season. He’s proven he is capable of taking over the entire series, yet the explosiveness that fans saw last year seems to remain dormant as the pivotal races leading up to the playoffs approach quickly.
The most obvious reason for Larson’s relative struggles is the Gen 7 car that the Cup Series debuted this season. In the car’s first season, the sport immediately saw greater parity between teams and it has set the stage for one of the most exciting stretch runs to the playoffs that the sport has seen since its inception in 2014.
The car was specifically designed to have this effect, as the liberty and near-autonomy teams had in regards to engineering and parts sourcing has been heavily reduced. While it's great for the competition side of the sport, Larson is clearly facing the repercussions of the changes.
His team, Hendrick Motorsports, is an iconic organization in the sport. The team has established itself as the pinnacle of quality and performance, which has translated into dominance for its drivers for well over 30 years.
While the team is still showing up to the track with some of the best-engineered cars week in and week out, they simply cannot gain as much of an advantage in the shop as they once could.
That being said, Larson has established himself as one of the most talented drivers in the sport for almost a decade -- yet his one win is still underwhelming, no matter how you slice it.
Larson's struggles do not fall solely on his shoulders. His pit crew has struggled throughout the year, which was the biggest threat to his title chances last year, as well. Even last week at Sonoma, Larson clearly had the fastest car in the field, only to fall victim to a loose wheel late in the race.
With the loose wheel now comes a four-race suspension for his crew chief Cliff Daniels and two of his crew members. Mistakes like these have constantly killed any momentum that Larson has tried to build throughout the season, and he must now face four weeks without his mastermind partner-in-crime atop the pit box.
Outside of the new car and an underwhelming pit crew, it is hard to put a finger on Larson’s sophomore slump with Team Hendrick. He’s clearly been fast, but simply not as fast as many expected. There seems to be no external forces known to the public weighing on him. In fact, he seems to be completely past the controversies that led to his lengthy suspension back in 2020.
Perhaps the most realistic answer is the fact that there are peaks and valleys in racing. Just as Larson seemed on top of the world last season, it is understandable that he is showing a more human side now. The lengthy list of things Larson accomplished last year is a feat that racing aficionados can’t -- and won't -- soon forget. Yet, his decline in success this year leaves everyone watching nervously to see if the sleeping giant may soon awaken and take over the Cup Series competition once again.
One thing is for sure going forward. Despite some questions concerning his decline in speed, some major changes need to happen if Larson has hopes of becoming the back-to-back champion. Errors on pit road, DNFs, and lack of wins will become far more impactful issues when the ten-race playoffs roll around.
If Larson and his team cannot find a way to improve in those areas by playoff time, the No. 5 group will have its backs to the wall as it fights to regain dominance atop the Cup Series standings.
Although he’s failed to live up to the expectations he set, those improvements are within reach. While fans will have to watch how his season plays out, if Larson returns to form, it’s safe to say the rest of the competition is in for a major challenge.