2019 Fantasy Baseball: Roto's First Basemen Stock Watch
Daily Dr. Roto—March 20, 2019
First Basemen Stock Watch
Three Up, Three Down
As Fantasy Baseball Drafts are fast approaching, I will give you three guys that I am keying on (and avoiding) at my upcoming drafts:
Three Up First Basemen
Paul Goldschmidt (1B, STL) — I think it was two years ago when I took Goldschmidt with the first overall pick in the FSTA Fantasy Baseball experts draft. At the time, I loved his ability to not only hit for power, but to hit over .300 and steal 15-20 bases. Last year, however, was a down year for Goldy who struggled trying to win games in Arizona by himself. The D’Backs lineup had no one to protect him and most opposing pitchers knew if they could just pitch around him that no one else could beat them. Now, Goldschmidt has been traded to St. Louis where everyone seems to play better once they arrive. I think a comeback is in order, and I want as many shares of him as I can get as I think he goes back to the .320/30/100/90/15 player he was just a short time ago.
Carlos Santana (1B, CLE) — Perhaps I am secretly inspired by the fact that Santana took a baseball bat to the Phillies clubhouse TV so his teammates would stop playing fortnight (Dr. Roto Jr. are you listening??!!), but I think Santana is back in Cleveland where he is comfortable and ready to resume being a force. I also love how Santana is falling in drafts and that he can be gotten in like the mid to late rounds since people think he is on the way down. Santana is still a lock for 25/85 and I think his .229 BA from last season might even see a small bump up as well.
Pete Alonso (1B, NYM) — I had the good fortune to see Alonso live in Spring Training the other week and came away incredibly impressed. Alonso has tremendous brute strength (he hit a HR that left the park in less than 2 seconds) and should be a key cog in the Mets lineup for the next decade. While it’s true that he may begin the year in the minors so the Mets can extend his service time, I find it hard to believe that he won’t be up with the team by early May. If so, expect 25-30 HRs from this young monster hitter.
Three Down First Basemen:
Joey Votto (1B, CIN) — I am more than willing to call last season an aberration for Votto, but I am not willing to pay full price for him this year. The old Votto was a $30 player who could go .325/30/100. Now I see him way more as a $15 player who goes .285/17/76.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B, SEA) — For the last seven years Encarnacion has had 34+ HRs and 98+ RBIs, but I don’t see him having any numbers remotely close to that this season. Seattle has already talked about trading him and I can see him getting off to an incredibly slow start as he sulks in the Northwest as the team loses game after game. Perhaps I might be willing to make a mid-season trade for him if he ends up with a contender, but as it stands now I am avoiding him completely.
Ian Desmond (1B, COL) — It’s not that Desmond is a bad player, but I see his skill set eroding and I hate paying full price for a player whose arrow is clearly pointing downward. Some owner at your draft still probably sees Desmond as a 20/20 threat, but I see him more as 15/15 with a batting average that is barely over .250. I’d much rather take a shot on a young power hitter like Pete Alonso or Luke Voit than a 33-year old Desmond.