2020 Fantasy Baseball: ADP Report - Second Basemen & Shortstops
Second Basemen ADP Report
Last year seven players hit 30 home runs or more at second base, with Gleyber Torres leading the way (.278 with 96 runs, 38 home runs, 90 RBI, and five steals).
Five players scored over 100 runs, and two players delivered over 100 RBI. D.J. LeMahieu had the best overall season at second base (.327 with 109 runs, 26 HRs, 102 RBI, and five SBs).
In 2018, no second basemen had over 100 RBI, and Ozzie Albies was the only player to score over 100 runs.
Max Muncy was the only player to hit over 30 home runs in 2018.
Here’s a grid showing the final stats for 2019 for the top 12 players at each position and their value ranked by SIscore:
Last year the average of the top 12 second basemen hit .297 with 83 runs, 24 home runs, 78 RBI, and ten stolen bases over 512 at-bats. The second base position ranked fifth in overall hitter value.
Here are the projections (7/16) for the top 12 second basemen at Sports Illustrated ranked by SIscore:
The stats highlighted by the yellow line show the average projections (.288 with 35 runs, eight home runs, 25 RBI, and six steals over 570 at-bats) for the top 12 second basemen in 2020.
Here’s a look at the top 12 second basemen by 2020 ADP in five NFBC Main Events in July:
A fantasy owner can find power at second base this year, but building the right foundation of speed will take some work. Ideally, the best path to a balanced team comes from securing a minimum of 60 steals from 2B, SS, and MI.
Gleyber Torres looks to be the impact player in power with some underlying speed on his minor league resume. New York scored a ton of runs last year. Torres feels like an edge if his batting average and steals come along for the ride.
The new best option for a balanced skill-set looks to be Ozzie Albies. He scored over 100 runs in back-to-back seasons while setting a steady floor in steals and power. His game should be improved thanks to being sandwiched between two great hitters.
Keston Hiura looks to have stud upside, but he outperformed his early minor league resume by such a wide margin. I sense some regression while being overvalued by his ADP (37). Also, Hiura has an underlying elbow issue that may eventually lead to TJ surgery. In mid-July, he popped in the injury report with a right elbow issue.
There is no disputing the success of Ketel Marte. He’s been working hard to get stronger, and he does have more speed on his minor league resume. Tempting for sure, but I expect some fade in his batting average.
Jose Altuve is the one Astro I don’t trust this year, which is primarily due to his lost value in steals. He could be a great value if he finishes with a rebound in stolen bases. His lengthy resume of success says buy the discount.
Max Muncy, Mike Moustakas, and Eduardo Escobar offer an edge in power while having a third baseman's skill-set. The best choice here comes for potential at-bats and their slot in the batting order. Muncy has the best approach, but he did suffer a finger injury (appears to be minor) in July.
Whit Merrifield makes sense to a fantasy owner if he’s leaning to more steal attempts. His top of the order opportunity adds value while offering the possibility for more stolen bases.
Based on success last year, D.J. LeMahieu looks to be a great value. He saved the Yankees last year many times while hitting at the top of the batting order. Even with some pullback in his stats, LeMahieu should finish as a trusted asset at second base.
Cavan Biggio is the biggest mover at the top end of the second base pool in early March (gained a round and a half of value). Biggio takes plenty of walks with a 20/20 type skill set, while his only question was coming from his value in batting average.
I like the bat of Tommy Edman, and his opportunity for at-bats looks improved from March. His skill set has some similarities with Whit Merrifield. The key here is hitting at the top of the batting order.
I would love to target Gavin Lux this year as a hot start could push him to a favorable part of the batting order. Once he earns 500-plus at-bats while hitting near the top of the batting order, Lux will move to the inside of the first four rounds of drafts in the next couple of seasons. The Dodgers have enough veteran depth where he'll sit on some days against lefties, and LA should hit him at the bottom of the order in 2020.
Garrett Hampson qualifies at 2B and OF. His best impact should come in steals while also having the foundation skill set to hit at the top of the Rockies batting order. The key here is his playing time, which improved dramatically since March with Ian Desmond opting out of playing in 2020 and the DH added to the National League.
Brandon Lowe slid about a round in drafts over the last week. Tampa likes to platoon players, but they don’t have a clear right-handed option to steal playing time from Lowe. The Rays should hit him at the top of the batting order with the talent to deliver 25-plus bombs and a handful of steals if baseball played a full season in 2020.
There is no doubt Rougned Odor was bum last year as far as batting average (.205), but he still beat the average stats in runs (77), home runs (30), RBI (93), and steals (11). Worth a swing for a team that builds in his risk in batting average.
Howie Kendrick played well in 2019 off the bench for the Nationals with success in the playoffs. With the DH added to the National League and a question at first base, fantasy owners pushed up his ADP 152 spots in July from his March value.
Shortstops ADP Report
Last year eight players hit 30 home runs or more at shortstop. The best player at the position was TrevorStory (.294 with 111 runs, 35 home runs, 85 RBI, and 23 steals) by SIscore (+7.75). Alex Bregman (.296 with 122 runs, 41 home runs, 112 RBI, and five steals) ranked 2nd at short and 3rd at third base.
Seven players scored over 100 runs, and two players delivered over 100 RBI.
In 2018, four shortstops had 100 runs or more, and five players drove in over 100 runs. Five batters had over 30 home runs.
Here’s a grid showing the final stats for 2019 for the top 12 players at each position and their value ranked by SIscore:
Last year the average of the top 12 shortstops hit .293 with 91 runs, 23 home runs, 75 RBI, and 20 stolen bases over 550 at-bats. The shortstop position ranked fifth in overall hitter value.
Here are the projections (3/10) for the top 12 third basemen at Sports Illustrated ranked by SIscore:
The stats highlighted by the yellow line show the average projections (.284 with 36 runs, ten home runs, 29 RBI, and 11 steals over 219 at-bats) for the top 12 shortstops in 2020.
Here’s a look at the top 12 shortstops by 2020 ADP five NFBC Main Events in July:
A fantasy owner could make a case for every one of the top 12 shortstops based on skill-set and price point.
Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, and Javier Baez all fit into the stud category with the ability to hit over 30 home runs and add 20 or more steals if the season was played in full. Baez looks to be the best value of the three based on his ADP (33), which was trending up in March. Story and Baez may fall short of being assets in batting average due to their high strikeout rates. Both players do hit for a high average when they put the ball in play.
Fernando Tatis has the talent to match the big three studs in power and speed, and he could have pushed the bar to a 40/40 level with a healthy season. Last year he had the highest contact batting average in the majors, suggesting a pullback in batting average in 2020.
Trea Turner, Adalberto Mondesi, and Jonathan Villar offer the highest floor and ceiling in steals.
Mondesi does come with risk due to offseason shoulder surgery. Fantasy owners have been willing to pay full price for him over the winter. I would proceed with caution here.
Villar gained about four draft spots over the last week or so. His speed is intriguing, but the downgrade in the offense in Miami should lead to a drop off in runs, home runs, and RBI.
The best of three base stealers is Trea Turner. His skill set is unique while setting a high floor in steals. Turner should add value in runs and batting average while being capable of 20-plus home runs. Fantasy owners still haven’t seen the best of him.
Xander Bogaerts proved to be a great value last year with the talent to be productive going forward. He can’t match the top seven shortstops in steals, which leaves him a notch below in overall value. The loss of Mookie Betts does hurt the Red Sox scoring ability. Bogaerts has been battling a minor ankle issue this spring, leading to a slight slide in his ADP (48).
The player that offers the most intrigue at short this year is Bo Bichette. I don’t view him as a blazer on the basepaths, but he should make a run at 30-plus steals at some time in his career. His power came quicker than expected in his rookie season while owning the foundation skill set to hit for a high batting average. With a healthy season, 100-plus runs should be a given. In July, fantasy owners have fought for him the most in drafts based on the movement of his ADP (+10.3 spots), which almost matched his early uptick in value (+10.2 spots) in March.
Last year I was all over Tim Anderson as a value at shortstop. He lived up to expectation thanks to a massive push in batting average. His overall counting stats fell short due to some missed time. Anderson has the game to deliver 25 home runs with 30 steals, and the White Sox intend on giving him a chance to hit second in 2020. Look for regression batting average while still being undervalued based on his ADP (70).
Marcus Siemen had a breakout season last year, helping him to the fifth-highest ranking at shortstop by SIscore (+5.36). The A’s will bat him at the top of the lineup, and his game did have growth. His only strike is his value in stolen bases.
When projecting for 2020, I thought that Carlos Correa would be a great value on draft day. He has immense talent while batting in the middle of a high scoring offense. I had to price in some injury time based on his recent resume, plus speed is no longer a part of his pregame ranking equation. Correa certainly could hit over 40 home runs with a full season of games if he finds his power rhythm, and his batting average could end up being a significant asset. I’ve lost a ton of money on him, and I sense I’ll have a shortstop in my back pocket before his ADP. With that said, Correa has the talent to be a top ten player in baseball.
Amed Rosario played well last year, which was helped by a high volume of at-bats. If the Mets said they would hit him first or second in the batting order, his ADP would climb a couple of rounds. Rosaria is an excellent balanced player that works for the right team structure.
Last year Elvis Andrus looked like a lost cause at times in power (only four home runs and 42 RBI over 416 at-bats from May 14th and September 20th). He held value thanks to stealing 31 bags. His swing path still delivers too many ground balls, and the Rangers' new ballpark doesn’t look like an upgrade in home runs.
Corey Seager was my breakout hitter this year. I expected a massive push in batting average with a run at a 100/30/100 type season. I love his swing, and his early major league resume supports a much higher value in drafts.
There is a lot to like about Jorge Polanco to a major league team, but he is a tougher piece to the puzzle in the fantasy market. His power developed last year while owning a foundation to help in batting average. I’d like to see more steals to improve his overall fantasy value. If the shoe fits, the Twins will hit him in a favorable bat of the batting order.
The sneakiest shortstop option for me in 2020 is Paul DeJong. His resume suggests batting average risk, but he did improve his approach last year. This year I would have drafted him the idea of pushing to a neutral batting average (.270) with the talent to smash 40 home runs with some supporting speed.
I know I’ll never own Willy Adames in 2020 based on my weakness for many other shortstops on this list, but he looks poised to make a jump in power with enough speed to steal double-digit bases. If Tampa moved him to a higher slot in the batting order, his value would grow in runs and RBI.