NBA Best Bets and DFS Plays - Tuesday, August 11th

Corey Parson

Today is a big day for the teams competing for the play in-game for the eighth seed in the Western Conference. The Memphis Grizzlies, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns are all in action today. Today will be the biggest day of the seeding round of the NBA restart.

Houston Rockets vs San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs need a win today vs the Houston Rockets or they can kiss the idea of playing in a play in-game for the eight seed away. 

San Antonio will catch a break today since the Rockets will be sitting James Harden. The Rockets are the 4-seed in the Western Conference, and they have a game and a half lead over the Thunder for that spot. Houston also has an outside shot at getting to the 3-seed, but with Harden sitting out today's game they seem to be fine with going into the playoff where they are. 

Russell Westbrook is likely to play for the Rockets in today's game. This game opened up with the Rockets as a 3-point favorite, and the news of Harden sitting has moved San Antonio to a 4.5-point favorite. Even without Harden, the public has come in on the Rockets while sharp money is backing the Spurs. The sharp money play on the Lakers yesterday did not work in our favor but following the sharp money is a winning long term strategy in sports betting. 

The spread on the Spurs is juiced up to -114, so this number could move to Spurs -5. I'm taking the Spurs minus the spread. If you are cool with laying juice, hop on the Spurs moneyline. At the time of me writing this article the Spurs moneyline wsa -198.

The Play: Spurs -4.5

Portland Trail Blazers vs Dallas Mavericks

The Portland Trail Blazers are only a half-game behind the Memphis Grizzlies for the eighth spot in the Western Conference, The Trail Blazers are only a half-game ahead of the Phoenix Suns for the ninth seed, this is a big game for Portland. The Mavericks will have both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis back in their lineup today, and this should cause trouble for the Blazers. 

These teams met three times in the regular season and all three games were very entertaining with the Mavericks won two of those three. 

People will say that the Trail Blazers are a different team now, but I would argue Dallas is as well. Part of the reason why is Kristaps Porzingis is playing better basketball right now than he was before the season paused. 

This game opened up with Portland as a two-point favorite, and the public moved that number all the way up to Portland as a five-point favorite. Then, sharp money has come in the Mavericks to drive that number down to three. I wish I could have caught it at 5 but I will take it at 3 and sprinkle on the moneyline.

The Play: Mavericks +2.5

Benny Heis' Best Bet - Celtics vs Grizzlies 

The Grizzlies opened up as 4.5-point dogs and a bunch of sharp money has come in to move it down to 3. I was fortunate enough to grab them at +4.5, but I still think 3 is fair.

This line will likely continue to move throughout the day as more bettors become aware of the ramifications at stake for Memphis.

The Celtics are locked into the 3-seed with the Raptors four games up and the Heat 3.5 games back. Meanwhile, Memphis is hanging on by a thread to the 8-seed despite losing five of six in the bubble. A win today locks them into a play-in game for the final remaining spot in the Western Conference.

The Play: Grizzlies +3

DFS Plays

PG/SF Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

DraftKings: $10,800

FanDuel: $10,500

Last time I aid play Luka he had a triple-double. While those stat lines may be commonplace for Luka, don't ever get cute and not play him. Good chance he has another triple-double tonight.

PG Russell Westbrook, Houston Rockets

DraftKings: $9,300

FanDuel: $9,400

Westbrook is likely to play in today's game with James Harden out of the lineup the offense will run through Russ, so make sure to check that he does play before tip-off.

PG Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies

DraftKings: $8,300

FanDuel: $7,400

Rookie of the year front-runner Ja Morant has played well, but not great in the bubble, For his team to hold on to the eighth seed in the East, Morant will have to be great today vs the Celtics. I'm sure he has it in him.

SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic, Sacramento Kings

DraftKings: $5,500

FanDuel: $5,600

Without De'Aaron Fox in the lineup, Bogdanovic should see more scoring opportunities. More chances to score against the Pelicans defense is one of the best things you can ask for in NBA DFS.