Fantasy Football: Most Likely Second-Round Bust

Fantasy Football: Most Likely Second-Round Bust

Dr. Roto foresees a disappointing season from Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones

2020 Fantasy Football: Why Aaron Jones is the Most Likely Second-Round Bust

Early round picks are usually safe, but they're not all immune to risk. Senior Fantasy expert Dr. Roto highlights which second-round pick he feels is most likely to bust.
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This is the second part of a three-part series, where I look at the opening three rounds of this year’s fantasy draft. I will look for the one player who is the candidate to bust in each round potentially.

READ MOREMost likely first-round bust & most likely third-round bust.

Here are the players drafted from picks 13-24 according to our Advanced ADP tool which pulls exclusive results from our high stakes drafts. 

  • 2.01 Austin Ekeler

  • 2.02 Tyreek Hill
  • 2.03 Julio Jones
  • 2.04 Aaron Jones
  • 2.05 DeAndre Hopkins
  • 2.06 Clyde Edwards-Helaire
  • 2.07 Josh Jacobs
  • 2.08 Chris Godwin
  • 2.09 Travis Kelce
  • 2.10 Mike Evans
  • 2.11 Kenny Golladay
  • 2.12 Lamar Jackson

Note: CEH has been drafted between sixth and ninth in the last six FFWC drafts. So his ADP is of course trending way up. He'll be up in the first round soon.

First Runner-Up: WR Julio Jones, ATL

As many of you know, Julio Jones "Roto" was my original Roto child. So, it pains me to even think about putting him on any list as a potential bust. That said, I have three reasons why he might be a bust this season:

  1. Atlanta will be more committed to their running game than in previous seasons. The free-agent signing of Todd Gurley shows me that the Falcons realize that they need to have more balance in their offense if they want to get back to the Super Bowl. Devonta Freeman couldn’t handle 20-25 touches per game, but Gurley can and will.
  2. For all his catches and receiving yards, Jones hasn’t scored double-digit touchdowns since 2012. In the past three years, Jones has 17 TDs, which is not the number that fantasy managers are looking for with their second-round pick. I have always contended that to win a fantasy championship, I want to draft two players who can score ten or more TDs with my first two selections.
  3. Has Jones lost a step? Considering that the Falcons rarely use him in red-zone situations, Jones always seems to have a few long-distance TDs each season. But now at 31 years old, I worry that his 4.39 speed might be closer to 4.5 or so, which means that his game-breaking long-distance TDs might be more difficult to come by.

Most Likely Second-Round Bust: RB Aaron Jones, GB

I have never been a huge fan of regression, thinking that good players can't have multiple seasons of success. However, when players have seasons that are way out of the norm, regression is more than likely. In 2019, Aaron Jones was arguably one of the MVPs of fantasy football. His 19 total TDs (16 rushing and three receiving) was completely unexpected (he had nine the year before) and tied for the league-league in that category. Now in 2020, I am telling you that Jones is the most likely second-round bust. How is this possible?

In Jones' first two seasons, he dealt with various injuries and only played in 12 games each season. Last year he stayed healthy for 16 games and had 1,084 rushing yards on 236 carries. Will Jones avoid the injury bug yet again, especially in a year surrounded by a pandemic?

Look at Jones' 2019 season more carefully: he had one game with four TDs, another with three TDs, and two others with 2 TDs. Eleven TDs in four games is an enormous boon to his fantasy statistics, but it does not exactly scream out consistency.

In this year's draft, Green Bay spent their second-round pick on RB A.J. Dillon from Boston College. Dillon is a huge back (Jones is only 5'9 and a little over 200 lbs.) who should excel in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Will Dillon come in and steal some of Jones' thunder? It is also obvious (from the Packers drafting of rookie QB Jordan Love) that Head Coach Matt LaFleur is having doubts about QB Aaron Rodgers. If Rodgers’ decline continues, it seems likely that the Packers will continue their shift from a pass-first offense to a run-first offense. If this occurs, Jones, Dillon, and even Jamaal Williams are likely to see more carries.

And finally, with Jones in a contract year, will the Packers want to inflate his statistics, which could cost them more in a potential new long-term contract?

All of this is not to say that Jones won’t be a good player this season. I expect him to be solid. When it comes to second-round picks, I am always looking to select players who have upside. Jones was the upside pick in 2019, but in 2020, I suggest that fantasy managers look elsewhere for that upside.

MORE FROM SI FANTASY

This is the second part of a three-part series, where I look at the opening three rounds of this year’s fantasy draft. I will look for the one player who is the candidate to bust in each round potentially.

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