Fantasy Football Fact or Fiction: Rookie RB Hype In Full Swing

Dr. Roto doesn't believe in the offseason! Fact or Fiction is a way to assess what isn't always common sense for Fantasy owners.
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Daily Dr. Roto — June 29, 2018

Fantasy Football Fact or Fiction: Rookie RB Hype In Full Swing

The offseason brings us much news from the NFL. Coaches, players, beat writers, and other experts continually pontificate as to what players are going to do during the season. It's our job to figure out what is true (fact) and what is false (fiction) before we head to the draft tables.

Report: It would be surprising if Redskins RB Derrick Guice did not win the starting job.

Fact or Fiction? Fact: I completely agree that the Redskins starting running back position is up for grabs. Neither Samaje Perine nor Rob Kelley did much to distinguish themselves in the coaching staffs’ eyes last season. The Redskins were thrilled to land Guice in the draft, and he is expected to be their lead back on first and second downs. However, Guice’s value is much higher in standard leagues and ½ pt. PPR leagues as Chris Thompson will still be the leading receiver out of the backfield. Expect Thompson to see the field in two-minute drill situations and if the Redskins are down in the second half of games. Guice could have a stellar Fantasy season, but a lot of the rookie's production depends on game flow and whether the Redskins can maintain a lead.

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Report: Andrew Luck says his throwing shoulder is pain-free.

Fact or Fiction? Fact: It’s been close to two years since we’ve seen Andrew Luck throw the football in a real NFL game, but the signs are all pointing to his being available at the start of the season. Luck’s health raises the Fantasy value of many players on the Colts including TY Hilton, Nyheim Hines, Marlon Mack, Jack Doyle, and Eric Ebron. Without seeing Luck play in a preseason game drafting him takes a bit of faith. As of this moment, he is on the fringe of being a QB1, but if he looks good in games, he could easily be a top 5 player once again.

Report: Cleveland Browns rookie RB Nick Chubb has a chance to win the starting job.

Fact or Fiction? Fiction: As much as I like Chubb, the Browns have spent a small fortune on running backs Carlos Hyde in free agency and in retaining Duke Johnson with a new contract this offseason. I know they did this without realizing that Chubb would be available in the draft, but I expect that they will bring Chubb along slowly. Due to his size, I can see the rookie having possible immediate value in standard league formats, but in PPR leagues, I think he is an RB4 or RB5 with upside for more.

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Report: Denver Broncos rookie RB Royce Freeman can absolutely win the team’s starting job.

Fact or Fiction? Fact: With C.J. Anderson now in Carolina, and Devontae Booker showing the team that he is not quite ready to be the lead back, the opportunity is there for Royce Freeman. I think the Broncos would love to make him their first and second down running back and use Booker on obvious passing downs. If he plays well, I can see Freeman being a solid RB3 with possible upside to become an RB2. Freeman was exceptional at the goal line in college, so at the very least, he could be a sneaky pick to score double-digit TDs in the Broncos’ offense.

Report: Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins is going to have a huge season because he is being moved around to different positions on offense.

Fact or Fiction? Fiction: Kansas City Chiefs HC Andy Reid is doing the right thing by moving Watkins around within the offense. Playing on the outside in Buffalo did not give Watkins a chance to use his breakaway speed to run quick slant routes. My biggest fear with Watkins this season is not his route running, but his opportunity. With Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Kareem Hunt all in need of the football, I find it hard to imagine that Watkins is going to get more than 60-65 catches this season. For that reason alone, Watkins is over-drafted this season based on his name and not on his opportunity.

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