WEEK 8 INTRODUCTION
Welcome to Week 8 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week.
WHAT ARE THE AMBUSH PLAYS? These are my favorite stand out plays of the week and the players that I am the highest on to pair with the MAIN plays. In some cases, they're locks in cash, in some cases they're locks in my high dollar tournament plays of the week and in other cases they might be a stack play that is going in one of my top 3 lineups.
Last Week: Winston (350 yds, 1 rush TD), Kamara (1 Rush TD, Beat Elliott), Diggs (8 catches, no yards, dud.), Njoku (Easy Chalk), Jags D (Ouch)
AMBUSH STRATEGY THIS WEEK
I will always keep evolving. One thing my Dad always told me was to keep learning new skills, keep staying relevant and I'm translating that into my article this week and the lineup construction using the AMBUSH plays because I think some of you are a little confused on where do I integrate AMBUSH plays, are they main lineup plays, are they my favorite plays at a position, do I play all together?? Great questions and the simple answer is that "it depends" and it's honestly different each week and it's different for each position.
What I have done this week is listed the AMBUSH plays back within my positional rankings so that you can see within the position where I rank them compared to other plays in terms of building a main lineup or the top guy at a spot. I also have an AMBUSH play that centers around a specific game this week so the AMBUSH STRATEGY this week is actually an AMBUSH lineup focused around the Seattle vs Detroit game. Both of these teams have one path to the playoffs and that is through the wild card. Seattle is NOT catching the Rams and Detroit has too many good teams in their division to really creep to the top in my mind at this point. Both, however, should be in the mix for a wild card spot if they continue to play well but whomever loses this H2H tie-breaker is SEVERELY behind the 8-ball. Seattle comes off a BYE and has a healthier Wilson and Baldwin. Detroit is just two weeks removed from a BYE and also is healthy up front. The running game could steal the show here but with Harrison now joining the Lions I hope that boosts Seattle to pass it more this week and we get a dome environment shootout. At the end I'll show you my AMBUSH lineup core....
THOUGHTS ON GAMES THAT DO VERY LITTLE FOR ME
Redskins at Giants ... This is the end of the road Adrian Peterson, enjoyed the career but this is a sad injury you will suffer this week. Sorry.
Ravens at Panthers ... Not a good match-up for the Panthers this week who will struggle to move the ball even at home. Ravens defense is in play.
Broncos at Chiefs ... I'm pretty heavy on the Chiefs fade train on this game this week. The Broncos are seeing Mahomes for the third time and second time in a month. I think they cover this game and keep it close and low scoring for a good portion of the game. Lots of other juicy games this week so we can fade this one. I love Lindsay for his value this week, but hate stacking this game.
Jets at Bears ... Slight rain here which downgrades the game for me but it's also a matter of I see this being a ground game and a slower tempo than the Bears have been playing. I prefer other spots this week, although Chris Rose who has nailed Trubisky in his big games this year is high on him once again this week.
Falcons vs BYE ... The BYE is not as rested as you might think, they've got another week of 4 opponents so I think we start to see the BYE show some signs of leaks this week but it's the Falcons and this is a spot where Atlanta gets up early in the BYE week and then seemingly comes out in the second half and starts to choke. Did you know that the BYE week has gone 25 weeks in a row without giving up back to back touchdown drives in a single game? That's amazing. Take the BYE to the bank here.
MY POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
Aaron Rodgers ... Newsflash here. He's still good and he's perfectly healthy. The Packers had extra rest for this game and Rodgers will be getting some weapons back to allow him to attack a Rams defense that should be licking their chops to get after the SoCal native Quarterback this weekend. But Rodgers is in that Brees/Brady immune to the match-up tier and with him throwing 42, 44, 40, 52 and 46 times this season outside of the game when he got hurt there's very little concern about his floor in this match-up. Back to back 400+ yard games and in a spot where he might come in a little underowned? Rodgers should be your main lineup Quarterback this week.
Ben Roethlisberger ... Ben at home. Ben off a bye. Blah, Blah, Blah. You've likely heard all of that by now, but the reason I LOOOVE Ben this week is my love affair for Brown and Ju-Ju here against Cleveland who just gave up 350 yards through the air to Jameis fricken Winston. The Browns are struggling, they're young and they're poorly coached and no team has played more minutes so far than the Browns with all of their OT games this year. This is a fantastic spot for Ben this week and the Steelers passing game.
Russell Wilson ... There are two huge factors that are driving me towards Russell Wilson.... Check that, I am drinking right now, so three... The first is the addition of Snacks Harrison to the Lions front which should upgrade their rush defense somewhat -- maybe not drastically -- but it can't hurt. That is one path to force Seattle to attack through the air and the second one here is that I think the Lions are going to come out swinging in this game and we get Wilson locking in the air and rushing yards himself in an attempt to come back in the game. While I like Stafford on the other side, I do worry about the Lions handing it off to the backs when in the red zone and with Wilson on the other side I am very confident he is their best red zone weapon.
Welcome to second half of the season Russ Wilson. Which is a major upgrade just like his love life when he upgraded to CIARA... I mean, the guy isn't exactly my favorite Quarterback but he does know how to do things better in the second half, does he not? This is a must win for both teams as neither is likely winning their division and will have to rely on the tie-breaker in this game to settle any potential wild card tie's that they might hope for. The last time they met was in the playoffs at the end of the 2016 season and Wilson->Baldwin shredded the Lions and should do so here as well even though I still think Baldwin isn't 100%. Coming off a BYE, expect points.
Kareem Hunt ... Hunt's benefited greatly from the Mahomes' stock bubble continuing to expand. I do not expect the Chiefs to run away with this game this week as heavy home favorites in the division is a tough spot despite what the general public thinks.
James Conner ... I don't hate playing him WITH Ben and even Brown this week to play for a Steelers blowout, but it's not how I am building a main lineup this week.
David Johnson ... With the OC change we gotta see Johnson start to get used more effectively and he had a decent game vs the 49ers earlier this year and this is also a sneaky high scoring game. He scores, but I don't think we see him go back to old DJ just yet.
Joe Mixon ... Game flow killed Mixon last week, but there's no reason to expect that to happen here this week at home against the Bucs. Mixon should see well over 20 touches this week and as a home favorite RB he should get in the box as well this week. I love his value in cash games as an equal pivot off or even with Kareem Hunt if you want to fade Gurley for higher priced WR this week. He really checks a ton of boxes for me this week.
- Home favorite RB
- RB1 with no clear RB2 to steal volume away from him
- Chalk offense simply based upon the opponent being a terrible defense
Philip Lindsay ... It feels like he is the only train who is available to ride in this tier this week. With Freeman out he gets a touches boost (Booker will be involved, I'd play him on DK over FD) and the game plan here for the Broncos HAS to be to pound the ball as much as they can against the Chiefs on the road. The Broncos are seeing KC for the second time in a short time and I expect their defense to finally contain Mahomes a little bit. Lindsay can benefit and he is the leverage key to fading Mahomes and the Chiefs high powered offense this week.
LOW END PUNTS (DRAFTKINGS)
Jalen Richard ... Lynch is gone (IR) and Cooper is gone (Trade). Richard benefits from both of these moves as Lynch is obvious and Cooper could draw a few passes throughout the game to Richard who will be on the field more now. Plus, the Raiders likely could have a few drives here trailing and in hurry up which is where they utilize Richard a lot more.
Jordan Wilkens & Nyheim Hines ... If Marlon Mack is out both of these guys open up as good value plays.
GOTTA GET ONE OF THESE ...
Antonio Brown ... Along with Ben, AB is the other guy at home who is as safe as they come and the yards and receptions I think are trending in a positive direction for him to regain the dominant role over Ju-Ju who everyone seems to be on this week. I really feel like we're gonna see Brown coming in far lower owned than he should be this week. Brown owns EVERY CB in the league, he's going to run circles around a very good rookie in Denzel Ward.
Davante Adams ... Between Brown and Adams you will be flirting with disaster this week if you do not have one of them. Nobody else should have the upside that these guys have this week in the high price range and I wouldn't be shocked if they both punched it in twice. Adams is a little easier to fade for me because there are some other value WR on the Packers with Cobb and Allison coming back this week, but make no mistake he's going to hit for 100 yards and a score this week.
Brandin Cooks ... Cooks over Woods for me on the Rams. I think Cooks has a huge day here but one of my bold predictions this week is that all three main rams, Gurley-Woods-Cooks all score ONE TD but don't have huge must own days as they spread the ball around here. That said, Cooks for his price is a nice way to get exposure on this game.
AMBUSH PLAYS ...
If you are on the AMBUSH play of Russ Wilson this week and doing an AMBUSH lineup then you'll want 2-3 of these guys. Baldwin and Tate are my favorite 1:1 WR guys going against each other here, but I have no issues with Kenny G and Lockett and definitely will have them in some lineups.
Doug Baldwin ... BYE week to get healthy and I will NOT play Wilson naked this week. Playing Wilson naked to get his rushing upside is a cash play. I want the tournament upside of Wilson having to hit 30 for this lineup to pay off and to do that he's going to have to get 3 TD through the air to get the yards as well. Baldwin is primarily a slot WR and the best CB on the Lions, Darius Slay, does not move to the slot at all. Baldwin is gonna have a huge yardage game this week.
Golden Tate ... Tate on Turf and Tate in a revenge game and in a spot where I think we're going to get a high scoring back and forth game with two quality quarterbacks. The only downside with someone like Tate here is that the Lions legit have a ton of offensive weapons (Golladay, Jones, Johnson, Blount) who could vulture yardage and touchdowns away from Tate for sure, but his price is reasonable here this week.
Tyler Lockett ... Lockett on the other hand has been the Seahawks WR who is getting into the box this season with touchdowns in all but one game so far. I think Baldwin takes away some from him but for this game to shootout, Lockett will have to come through for Seattle.
Kenny Golladay ... See Tate above, except KG is the #1 here in this offense and the better red zone threat. I like KG on FD and Tate on DK
TOURNAMENT THROW INS TO CONSIDER
- Demaryious Thomas, TY Hilton, Tyler Boyd, Michael Crabtree, Taylor Gabriel
VALUE PLAYS ...
Jordy Nelson ... Prior to their disaster in London, Nelson had TD receptions in three straight games and now with Amari Cooper out of the mix he is in a good spot to see an increase in targets slightly and remains a tough guy to cover in the red zone.
Jermaine Kearse ... Last weeks flop in a windy game now has a shot to bounce back if the weather cooperates. The Bears defense has a vulnerability over the middle and he wont get another 0 this week for sure.
Anthony Miller ... He is so risky that this is only a DK salary play. Jets can be beat in the slot where he normally does line up.
Travis Kelce ... Tournament play only. He's low owned because of roster construction this week (paying up at other spots) but he has huge upside for his price. Okay, so I said I'm light on Chiefs, I do have one Kelce on DK.
CJ Uzomah ... This is the chalk default/main lineup play this week. TE vs the Bucs no matter who it is. Rinse and repeat.
David Njoku ... Njoku and Baker combination is finally rolling along with back to back TD weeks and a spot where they get a favorable defense and a high scoring game they'll be trailing in.
OJ Howard ... 70 yards almost every game and getting better with more time playing with Winston. At 3900, easy 2x spot here.
Luke Willson ... The OTHER revenge narrative in this game -- just like Ben Watson was the OTHER revenge narrative last week.
Nick Vannett ... TE can do okay against the Lions and Vannett looks clear to return this week. He is my longshot TD call for near bare min on DK
Defense is a very weird position this week. There doesn't seem to be an obvious no doubt about it dominant defense who is at home and should clean house, which means we're likely going to see some ownership get spread around.
Bengals ... Jameis Winston and they're at home and pissed off after getting destroyed on SNF vs Kansas City. Lots of upside here even if they give up 14-17 points.
Ravens ... They'll bounce back and like I said above, they're a tough match-up for the Panthers
Steelers ... Gut feel they'll get to Baker a ton this week and turn him over a few times as well.
.... weird ... AFC North week I guess?
Andy Dalton ... Gimme all the Bro Mixon
Scam Newton ... Terrible match-up for Carolina this week.
Todd Gurley ... Reason to fade: There's good depth at RB and good value at RB on DraftKings this week even though Gurley himself is underpriced. On FanDuel he's 11k so the fade isn't as scary and we're paying up for QB again this week which means we can take the cheaper RB here.
Chris Carson & Kerryon Johnson ... This is nothing more than me fading these guys for the passing game in this match-up.
THE AMBUSH CORE LINEUP EXAMPLE
- Wilson-Baldwin-Vanett stack with Tate on the other side
- Both the AMBUSH RB
- Correlate 2 WR from another good game in WR3 and FLEX like the Rams/Packers game
- Home defense against a rookie QB
RANDOM QUESTIONS YOU MIGHT BE WONDERING
- Why not Stafford? Sure. Absolutely, just replace Wilson with Stafford but if you go Stafford you gotta go multi-WR for him because we need the RB to not vulture TD away....
- Yo... How do you get AB into a lineup with all these other guys? This is a great DK play to plug in one of the value RB into flex this week.