The Burning Edge - Rocket Mortgage Classic
I’m going to start with this. Last week was a shit show. Yeah yeah, I had the winner and another top five golfer written up. Who cares, my other picks were garbage and it cost us all money. It’s time to get better.
You could have easily cashed in any tournament with four of six golfers making the cut. That is a rarity in PGA nowadays. Ownership more than ever is playing a massive role in today’s PGA DFS world. With so much content accessible people are hearing the same names over and over, then just auto clicking that name without any second thought. Don't be a sheep. Last week you could have made a killing by taking a few off the wall chances. We head to Detroit this week, so let’s be Lions. On second thought let’s be much better than them.
Tournament: Rocket Mortgage Classic
Defending Champion:Nate Lashley -25
Course: Detroit Golf Club
*Top 65 and Ties Make the Cut (No MDF)
SG Par 5: Top 10 in field
Par 4 (450-500): Top 10 in field
Opportunities Gained: Top 10 in field
-Harold Varner III
Top 10 overall rankings
These rankings are based on a personalized mixed model created on fantasynational.com.
Top Notch Options
Golfers with the best chance to return value.
Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,700, FD $12,200)- This play is obvious. This play is chalk. This is one play I refuse to miss, when he finally wins. Bryson continues to reach value with his birdie barrages and bombs off the tee. Now being the most expensive golfer in the field, he has to be in the top three to reach value. He’s hungry for a win. I wouldn’t write up chalk if I didn’t think he could win. If you decide to play him go all in, don’t play him in one of three lineups, play him in all three or none at all.
First Pivot: Webb Simpson
Patrick Reed (DK $10,500, FD $11,200)- Reed managed to reach value last week with basically two rounds of great golf. The amount of birdies he is putting up each tournament is staggering. He ranks second overall in birdie or better percentage in this field. If you don’t have the money to pay up for Bryson look no further for your secondary option. He just needs to finish top twelve and be top five in birdies to reach value. In this field, he has a great opportunity to win.
First Pivot: Scottie Scheffler
Golfers to give you salary relief for balanced builds.
Doc Redman (DK $8,500, FD $10,000) - The time to hop on is now. Redman has gained nearly five strokes through approaches alone in each of his last three events. Giving himself ample opportunities for birdies. In fact he ranks second overall in opportunities gained this week. That statistic indicates how many birdie or better chances you have within 15ft of the hole. The price is high but the talent is undeniable. Ride this wave until it crashes.
First Pivot:JT Poston (see below)
Talor Gooch (DK $7,000, FD $8,100)- With back to back missed cuts we should see Gooch with deflated ownership. Most likely under 4% which will be a big edge this week. He missed the cut by only a few strokes each tournament, on shorter courses, without many par 5 opportunities. He will take advantage of the four par 5’s and give us plenty of birdies and possibly eagles to help him hit value. The last par 72 he played on he managed to a respectable 13th place finish.
First Pivot:Lanto Griffin
Lower owned golfers with upside.
JT Poston (DK $8,700, FD $10,200)- This is opposite of my normal outlook. He has lost nearly four strokes in each of his last two events through approach alone. That’s really bad. However, when he makes the cut, in his last few events he has gained nearly four strokes putting. Sooooo, they basically cancel each other out. If we can get some decent ball striking for a few rounds, watch out. Last year he gained 5.3 strokes through approaches at this course and 4.2 on the greens. I expect a similar outcome and at great ownership.
Erik Van Rooyen (DK $8,000, FD $9,600)- I love this guy’s game. When the irons are hot, he gives himself a chance on nearly every hole. The putter is his biggest downfall but we all know that only takes a couple good putting rounds to win tournaments. He hasn’t done much when you look solely at his tournament log but he ranks 7th in DraftKings points in this field. The man can score. With four par 5’s on this course he will make the most of those chances. I hope he sneaks under the radar this week and we can have a true tournament treasure.
First Pivot: Brandt Snedeker
Kurt Kitiyama (DK $8,100, FD $7,700)- Kitiyama wasn’t in the player pool when pricing first came out. He made it through battling in a Monday Qualifier. If you didn’t know last year’s winner and second place finisher both made it by qualifying on Monday as well. This has low owned upside written all over it.
First Pivot: Maverick McNealy
On The Edge
Golfers who just missed the write up cut. Firmly in play.
Outrights and Props
For the degenerate in all of us.
Outright to Win: Patrick Reed 14/1, Brandt Snedeker 40/1, JT Poston 40/1, Erik Van Rooyen 80/1, Matthew Wolff 100/1, Talor Gooch 200/1, Cameron Davis 200/1
First Round Leaders: Scottie Scheffler 45/1, Brandt Snedeker 50/1, HV3 66/1, Sam Burns 80/1, Cameron Davis 125/1
Best Props: Poston top 5 finish 7.5/1, Lanto Griffin top 5 finish 20/1, Top Australian Player Cameron Davis 5.5/1