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#UFCVegas13 MMA Betting Preview

The light heavyweight division's new face is now Jan Blachowicz, but two of the world’s best will get down Saturday night, and the winner positioned as the No. 1 contender to the throne. First-ranked Thiago Santos makes his long-awaited return and will have a tough test standing across from him in the likes of No. 3 Glover Teixeira, in a fight oddsmakers have ending inside the distance with a statement made by one of the two.

The card is stacked with 11 fights in total and will kick off at 7 p.m. ET with the prelims, followed up with the main card at 10 p.m. ET, all live and available on ESPN+.

We have matchups to dive into, predictions to hit, and wagers to cash, so let’s get to it!

UFC Fight Night Details

• DATE: SATURDAY 11/07/2020
• BROADCAST: ESPN+
  
• VENUE: UFC APEX
  
• LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
  
• # of MATCHES: 11
  

UFC PREDICTION BET SUMMARY

• Fight card predictions overall: 339-171-10 (66%)
• Targeted matchups (wagers): 174-69-5 (72%)

MAIN CARD

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 205LBS

#1 THIAGO SANTOS 21-7 VS #3 GLOVER TEIXEIRA 31-7

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS

ANDREI ARLOVSKI 29-19 VS TANNER BOSER 19-6-1

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS

#15 IAN HEINISCH 14-3 VS BRENDAN ALLEN 15-3

BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS

RAONI BARCELOS 15-1 VS KHALID TAHA 13-2

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115LBS

#4 CLAUDIA GADELHA 18-4 VS #8 YAN XIAONAN 12-1

PRELIMS

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS

TREVIN GILES 12-2 VS BEVON LEWIS 7-2

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

GIGA CHIKADZE 11-2 VS JAMEY SIMMONS 7-2

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS

ALEXANDR ROMANOV 12-0 VS MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA 17-6-1

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS

DARREN ELKINS 24-9 VS EDUARDO GARAGORRI 13-1

WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS

MAX GRIFFIN 15-8 VS RAMIZ BRAHIMAJ 8-2

BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS

GUSTAVO LOPEZ 11-5 VS ANTHONY BIRCHAK 15-6

MAIN EVENT PREDICTION

#1 THIAGO SANTOS 21-7 VS #3 GLOVER TEIXEIRA 31-7

Third time's the charm for these two as we finally get to see what truly is the match that should point us in the right direction as to who gets the next crack at the light heavyweight title. That is after Israel Adesanya moves up a class to take his shot at the current champ Jan Blachowicz. Who knows though, as Santos and Teixeira are not only two of the world’s best, but they are two of the most explosive fighters in the division, and the winner might just do enough to cause Dana to have second thoughts on the Adesanya announcement. Regardless, we got a real fight on our hands in the main event Saturday.

Only certain guys can get away with having a sledgehammer tattoo across their chest, and I’m not one of them. But Thiago Santos is hands down. His trainer back in the day gave him the moniker “Maretta” (sledgehammer in Portuguese) due to the violence he creates in the majority of his wins. Santos is one of the most explosive fighters in the sport and is, without a doubt, a tough out for anyone. After moving up to the light heavyweight division, Santos quickly rattled off three straight wins, all by TKO/KO. His TKO victory over current champ Jan Blachowicz positioned him for a shot at the then-champion Jon Jones, where he ultimately lost via split decision in a very close fight. The fight against Jones was the first time Jones had lost on the cards, at least in one judge's eyes. It's crazy to think what could have been, as Santos fought over four rounds of that fight essentially on one leg. The week after the fight, it was revealed that Santos had a torn ACL, MCL, and PCL on the left knee. He had also reinjured his right knee, which had previously had work done on it before the Jones fight. It's been a long road back, but some 500 days later, after repairing his knees and a recent positive Covid test just last month, “Maretta” is back and good to go. I believe we will see him right where he left off, that being a fighter well composed even in adversity, you know, like fighting Jon Jones on one leg for 25 minutes of adversity, all while always looking to land first, and with something devastating. With a capoeira background, he looks to keep the fight on the feet and averages 4.44 strikes per minute, though he can be a bit wild when throwing haymakers, which causes some risk. This risk will pause some of his typical forward momentum at times, which will be key openings that Glover Teixeira will need to capitalize on.

What an amazing resurgence at 41 years young for Teixeira. After dropping a sleeper decision back in 2018 to Corey Anderson, Teixeira has bounced back with four straight wins, with three of them by way of finish, setting up this matchup against the current #1 contender. Those wins have come against dangerous fighters with similar styles as Santos brings, which sets this one up nicely from a matchmaking perspective. Teixeira had rattled off 20 straight wins earlier in his career, setting up a title shot against Jon Jones back in 2014. Jones ended up handing Teixeira a loss that night, breaking the streak, though he too went to the final bell, just as Santos did against the P4P goat. The fighter we witnessed across those 20 wins hasn’t fallen off at all, and if anything, has only gotten better, even at 41.

Looking at this matchup, we see that oddsmakers give Teixeira little chance in this fight, positioning Santos as a -250 favorite to win. A couple of things you should consider before pulling any triggers:

• Teixeira is 41, which is considered old in the sport at this level, but Santos isn't too far behind and will be 37 in two months.
• How will Santos’ knees hold up, and will Teixeira attack them? During media day, that question was brought up, and Teixeira wouldn’t show his cards. But he did make it known he’s going to do what he needs to do to get the nod.
• Santos had covid just a month ago. Will that play a factor here?
• Dare I say Teixeira is the more well-rounded fighter?

I believe the line here is a bit disrespectful to Teixeira. The ticket will be what happens in the first round. Teixeira is a very slow starter and has been outstruck in the first round in his last seven fights. Expect that trend to continue in this fight. As they engage, I expect the small cage to support the Teixeira side. He will end up in a clinch at some point or secure a takedown and take control. The key for Teixeira will be his grappling and his ability to control where this fight goes, all while being elusive to the big shots coming his way. It will be interesting to see just how patient both will be out of the shoot with five rounds scheduled.

So who wins?

I have to see how Santos looks after his surgeries and latest covid spell before I can lay -250 on him. Also, have you noticed the massive recency bias after a few of these guys gave Jon Jones a decent showing? Think about it. Anthony Smith made it to the final bell with Jones, then went on to get finished by Teixeira brutally. Remember him handing the ref his teeth mid-fight? Yes, it was that fight. Dominick Reyes made it to the final bell with Jones as well. Next up for him was a TKO loss to Jan Blachowicz, where he took a position on Blachowicz at over +200 and cashed. Both Smith and Reyes were favorites in their fights following their Jones’ matches and didn’t deliver. It makes me wonder if Santos can. The position I have taken already on this fight is the OVER 1.5 rounds at -145. We already know Teixeira will come out slow, and it will be interesting to see if Santos does the same after this long layoff, with five rounds ahead of him. It's no secret Santos' gameplan is the knockout, so if Teixeira gets in danger, expect the clinch and/or the fight to hit the mat, where we will see seconds tick off the clock while both jockey for position. In 38 fights, Teixeira has only been knocked out one time, which was over four years ago against Rumble Johnson. Teixeira has been over 1.5 rounds or longer in his last three fights, while Santos has four of his last five. Though I’ll be surprised if this one makes the final bell, I’m fairly confident that we will get at least 7.5 minutes out of these two.

BETTING PREDICTIONS

MAIN CARD WAGERS

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 205LBS: #1 THIAGO SANTOS 21-7 VS #3 GLOVER TEIXEIRA 31-7

• Santos has been out for over 13 months after tearing his left ACL, MCL, PCL, and Meniscus.
• Bout was originally scheduled for September, but Teixeira tested positive for Covid. The rebooking in October was also scheduled when Santos tested positive as well.
• At 41 years of age, Teixeira is on a four-fight win streak.
• Santos has won by KO in 8 of his last nine wins.
• Santos is 3-1 at this weight, with his only loss a split decision against Jon Jones.
• BET: Click here to continue

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS: ANDREI ARLOVSKI 29-19 VS TANNER BOSER 19-6-1

• Boser has won 4 of his last five and last two via TKO/KO.
• Boser has won via TKO/KO in 3 of his last four wins.
• Arlovski has won via decision in his last five wins.
• Arlovski is just 4-9 in his last 13 fights.
• Arlovski is 12 years older than Boser.
• BET: Click here to continue

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS: #15 IAN HEINISCH 14-3 VS BRENDAN ALLEN 15-3

• Allen is riding a seven-fight win streak.
• Allen has won via finish in 86% of his wins, six coming by way of rear-naked choke.
• Heinisch has gone to a decision in 4 of his last five fights. His last fight was a TKO/KO win in just over a minute vs. Gerald Meerschaert.
• Heinisch has been taken down in all of his UFC fights, which will work to Allen's grappling and submissions strength.
• BET: Click here to continue

BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS: RAONI BARCELOS 15-1 VS KHALID TAHA 13-2

• Barcelos took the fight on just 10 days' notice after Jack Shore withdrew.
• Barcelos is on an eight-fight win streak.
• Taha has been out of action for over 13 months.
• Under the UFC banner, Barcelos is 4-0, while Taha sits at just 1-1.
• Barcelos has the advantage statistically in all grappling stats.
• BET: Click here to continue

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115LBS: #4 CLAUDIA GADELHA 18-4 VS #8 YAN XIAONAN 12-1

• Gadelha has never been finished and has gone to a decision in 10 of her last 11 fights.
• Yan hasn’t lost since 2010 and has also gone to a decision in all 5 of her UFC fights.
• Yan statistically has the advantage across the board in striking.
• Yan lands approximately double the significant shots per minute compared to Gadelha.
• On average, Gadelha absorbs 1.13 more strikes per minute than she lands.
• In 16 UFC fights, their combined average fight time is 14:55.
• BET: Click here to continue

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PRELIMS WAGERS

MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS: TREVIN GILES 12-2 VS BEVON LEWIS 7-2

• In August, Giles’ last fight was canceled very last minute as he fainted backstage just before walkouts.
• Lewis will have a 5-inch reach advantage, though lackluster accuracy on the feet.
• Giles is 9-0 against the orthodox fighting stance.
• Lewis is just 1-2 under the UFC banner.

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: GIGA CHIKADZE 11-2 VS JAMEY SIMMONS 7-2

• Simmons is making his UFC debut.
• Chikadze is riding a six-fight win streak.
• Chikadze has gone to a decision in all 4 of his UFC fights to date.
• Simmons is a fast starter, and 7 of his nine fights have finished under 1.5 rounds, with 6 in less than 5 minutes.
• BET: Click here to continue

HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS: ALEXANDR ROMANOV 12-0 VS MARCOS ROGERIO DE LIMA 17-6-1

• Romanov is 12-0 and won his UFC debut via submission.
• Lima's last four losses have been via submission.
• Romanov averages 6.41 takedowns avg./15 min.
• Lima was taken down and submitted in his last three losses.
• Romanov has never gone to a decision.
• BET: Click here to continue

FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: DARREN ELKINS 24-9 VS EDUARDO GARAGORRI 13-1

• A 22 fight UFC vet, Elkins has now lost four straight.
• Win or lose, 8 of Garagorri’s last 10 fights have ended in the 1st round.
• In Garagorri’s 2 UFC fights, he’s been taken down six times in less than nine combined minutes.
• Elkins was an NCAA Division II wrestler known for shooting for takedowns in every fight he’s in.
• This will be Garagorri’s first fight in the US.
• Elkins has lost 2 of 4 fights he’s been the favorite in.

WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS: MAX GRIFFIN 15-8 VS RAMIZ BRAHIMAJ 8-2

• Brahimaj is making his UFC debut.
• Brahimaj has eight pro wins, and all are via submission. Seven of those in the first round.
• Griffin is just 3-6 in the UFC and has gone to a decision in his last seven fights.
• In 23 total fights, Griffin has never lost via submission.

BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS: GUSTAVO LOPEZ 11-5 VS ANTHONY BIRCHAK 15-6

• Birchak is stepping up on just four days' notice after Colares tested positive for Covid.
• Lopez has won via 1st round finish in his last five victories.
• Birchak is just 2-2 in the UFC, but has more experience, faced tougher opponents, and will have the edge in all striking statistics.
• Birchak has attempted six takedowns in 4 UFC fights and only landed 1.
• Lopez was taken down 13 times in his last fight against Merab Dvalishvili.

Be sure to check out DraftKings Sportsbook options as well, on top of the daily fantasy tournaments available for Saturday. The sportsbook has lines up and available for fight lines, method of victory, and round betting!

See all of the moneylines at DraftKings Sportsbook!

UFC Fight Night DFS Plays & Strategies

• Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
• Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
• Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
• Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats; consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
• Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.

As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC FIGHT NIGHT. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are in MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.

Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.

UFC Fight Night DFS Recommendations

• Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
• Fights projected to NOT go to a decision
• Romanov/De Lima -610
• Santos/Teixeira -375
• Chikadze/Simmons -205
• Birchak/Lopez -175
• Barcelos/Taha -155
• Boser/Arlovski -115

Good luck everyone! I hope to see some of you cashin' after Saturday night! Thanks for all the amazing comments, and I appreciate the follows. If you haven’t done so already, jump on Twitter and find me at @Y2CASEY. Stay cashin’.