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2020 Kentucky Derby Betting Breakdown and Best Bets

SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo handicaps this weekend's 146th running of the Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs and predicts whether Tiz The Law can make history on Saturday.

The SI Gambling Horse handicapping experts had a great day at the track in the Travers Stakes when Tiz the Law came through in impressive fashion, helping our team crush the Exacta (8/1) and the Trifecta (36/1) after Caracaro & Max Player both hit the board!

In July, the team scored in the Blue Grass Stakes hitting the Exacta (12/1), Trifecta (60/1) and Superfecta (443/1). Now, the boys are back with some sharp opinions for this Saturday.

Who Will Win the Kentucky Derby?

After pushing back the race for four months due to the coronavirus pandemic, the “fastest two minutes in sports” is finally here. The Kentucky Derby, normally the first leg of the illustrious Triple Crown, is being run second as the Belmont Stakes kicked off the trail back in June.

NBC will televise live coverage of the Kentucky Derby as well as several notable races on Saturday. The celebrated Kentucky Oaks, featuring the world’s top fillies, will be televised Friday on NBC Sports Network.

"My favorite sport outside of the NFL is horse racing. There's nobody in the country who I trust more on Derby Day than Frank Taddeo. With his picks, our win ticket, exacta and trifecta are always in play. I'm all-in." -Scott Atkins, SVP SI Fantasy & Gambling

"My favorite sport outside of the NFL is horse racing. There's nobody in the country who I trust more on Derby Day than Frank Taddeo. With his picks, our win ticket, exacta and trifecta are always in play. I'm all-in." -Scott Atkins, SVP SI Fantasy & Gambling

The 146th running of the Kentucky Derby has drawn a solid field of 16 three-year-olds. Tiz the Law (3/5) enters as the prohibitive favorite but he will have to overcome the historical odds after drawing post No. 17. No horse in the history of the race has ever won breaking from that post. Expectations are his connections will try and send him hard early out the gate, looking to avoid any potential traffic issues. If any horse can make history and get post No. 17 on the board, Tiz the Law appears to be that horse.

All three of the top betting choices in the race will all be breaking from the far outside as Honor A.P. (5/1) drew post No. 16 with Bob Baffert's Authentic drawing the extreme outside in post No. 18. The question for horse bettors has now become can all three of the top betting choices (according to the morning-line odds), breaking from the far outside posts, avoid traffic and hit the board? I would wager that in a field this big, that will not take place on Saturday.

On Thursday, the pace of the race took a huge hit, when King Guillermo (20/1) was forced to withdraw from the race due to a fever. Owned by former MLB All-Star Victor Martinez, this son of Uncle Mo was garnering “wise-guy” attention here in Las Vegas after some impressive sharp Churchill Downs workouts.

On Friday afternoon we learned that 50/1 longshot Finnick The Fierce, who drew the dreaded rail, was also scratched from the race leaving us with a field of 16.

The question now becomes who will gain the early lead and become the pace setter? On paper, Authentic and Ny Traffic appear to be the likeliest contenders to vie for that position. However, can Authentic fire clean and fast enough from the extreme outside post to accomplish that? If he is able to clear the field and gain the opening lead, does that comprise his chances at winning with the extended distance demanded in the Derby?

Let’s take a look at the odds and dive deeper into the race to see who will cross the finish line first.

"There's nobody I trust more on Derby Day than Frankie Taddeo!" - Scott Atkins, SVP SI Fantasy & Gambling

Kentucky Derby (G1)

Racetrack: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky

Date: Saturday, September 5, 2020

Purse: $3,000,000

Distance: 1 ¼ mile, Dirt

Race: 14

Post Time: 7:01 p.m. EST / 4:01 PST



HORSES OF NOTE: Listed by post number, name, and odds.

#17 Tiz the Law (3/5) - This Barclay Tagg colt is the best horse in the country after romping in the Belmont and Travers Stakes, and is simply the one to beat. Tiz the Law will make history and become the first Kentucky Derby winner breaking from post No. 17. Top Choice

#15 Ny Traffic (20/1) - Benefits from the late scratch of King Guillermo and is a horse at solid odds who is improving after hitting the board in four consecutive Derby preps. His running style will keep him in the mix as they head for home in the Run for the Roses. Sneaky

#10 Thousand Words (15/1) - After going gate-to-wire in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar in August and defeating Honor A.P. he could get a solid set-up and find his way into the money on Saturday. Exotic Play

#2 Max Player (30/1) - Steve Asmussen’s colt had a respectable third place finish behind Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes. To show that was no fluke he rolled-back another third place finish behind the Derby favorite in the Travers Stakes. He should be flying late down the lane and is my top “closer” in the race. Top Closer

#13 Attachment Rate (50/1) - Finished second to Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby and Dale Romans appears to be “live” with the best of the 50/1 shots on the board. Top Bomb

Kentucky Derby Betting Breakdown

SI Fantasy PRO members will be able to follow every bet I will be placing for today's Kentucky Derby HERE, as well as the top plays from Winstar Farms horse trainer Destin Heath. On Friday, Heath wrote up the No. 7 horse Shedaresthedevil as one of his longshot picks at 20/1 to win the Kentucky Oaks.

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