Race of the Week: Score A "Touchdown" on the Racetrack in The American Pharoah Stakes Saturday
The SI Gambling Horse handicapping experts had a great day at the track in the Travers Stakes when Tiz the Law came through in impressive fashion; helping our team crush the Exacta (8/1) and the Trifecta (36/1) after Caracaro & Max Player hit the board!
In July, the team scored in the Blue Grass Stakes hitting the Exacta (12/1), Trifecta (60/1) and Superfecta (443/1). Now, the team is back with some sharp plays for this Saturday.
This weekend, racing fans will be treated to graded stakes action at Santa Anita. Among the highlights on the card is the $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes drawing an ultra competitive field of 8 with tremendous betting opportunities. The American Pharaoh Stakes is part of the Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” series with the winner receiving a spot in the Breeders’ Juvenile at Keeneland in November.
Spielberg enters as a 3/1 favorite off two straight solid runner-up performances for Bob Baffert. The son of Union Rags looks primed to run a huge race as he stretches out looking to break his maiden in his third career start after coming over from Del Mar.
Notable Exception (7/2) enters as a co-second choice after winning his career debut at Arlington Park back on September 4. This son of Street Sense, ships in from Keeneland and will now take on some top rivals from the West Coast.
Get Her Number (7/2) is switching surfaces for trainer Peter Miller and adds Flavien Prat in the saddles looking to now go two turns on the dirt. His morning workouts, while training on the dirt, indicate he could be a threat on Saturday after last racing on the turf.
Another top contender is Ryan Hanson’s Weston (6/1) who has won two of his first three career races and adds top jockey Drayden Van Dyke in the irons who look to take the field wire-to-wire. On paper, he appears to want the lead and is the likely pacesetter. My main concern is his speed figures have regressed in each of his races this summer.
Let’s take a look at the odds and dive deeper into the race.
American Pharoah Stakes (G1)
Racetrack: Santa Anita, Arcadia, California
Date: Saturday, September 26, 2020
Distance: 1 1/16 M, Dirt
Post Time: 7:12 pm EST / 4:12 pm PST
HORSES OF NOTE: Listed by post number, name, and odds
#1 Touchdown Brown (5/1) - The formula suggests this horse for Rafael Becerra should find a decent pace up front to close into. He will likely get a great saving trip from the rail and is primed to score at a solid price. Pick
#4 Notable Exception (7/2) - I have to believe his connections know something we don’t as he ships this horse away from his home at Keeneland to take on California rivals. He should love the added distance of two turns here. Contender
#8 Waspirant (6/1) - He is the ‘only’ horse in the entire race who has a win around two turns, so we know there should be no issue getting the distance. Top Longshot
American Pharoah Stakes Formula Rankings
- #1 Touchdown Brown
- #4 Notable Exception
- #8 Waspirant
- #5 Speilberg
- #2 Rombauer
- #6 Get Her Number
- #7 Weston
- #3 Dyn O Mite
American Pharoah Stakes Betting Breakdown
Frankie Taddeo, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Vegas Insider (@Frankie_Fantasy)
This race is absolutely wide open. My top play is #1 Touchdown Brown (5/1) who I will use with #4 Notable Exception (7/2 and #8 Waspirant (6/1). It's hard to fade Baffert’s #5 Speilberg, but as the most likely favorite I have to play against if he is odds-on come post time.
TOP Exacta: 1-2-4-5-8
$1 wager: $20
TOP Trifecta Part-Wheel: 1 with 2,4,5,8 with 2,4,5,6,8
$1 wager: $16
TOP Trifecta SPREAD Part-Wheel: 1,4,8 with 1,4,5,8 with 1,4,5,6,8
¢.50 wager: $24
PROTECTIVE Trifecta P/W: 5 with 1,2,4,8 with 1,2,4,6,8
$1 wager: $16
All wagers display ticket cost. All bettors should adjust wager amounts based upon bankroll