NBA DFS Dropping Dimes July 31, 2020
NBA came back last night after over 3 months off with a 2 game slate. Today we have a solid 6 game slate. Early start at 2:30 EST.
Some soft pricing on the restart. Harden is the most expensive player coming in at 11k flat on DK and 10.6 on FD. Doncic and Giannis are the only other players above the 10k mark. These guys are in play at their current pricing for raw points.
*updates in Red
Today we have a few top tied point guards on the slate with Russell Westbrook, Luka Doncic and James Harden on DK. Dame will have to come out of this restart on fire if the Blazers want to make the playoffs. As of now they are on the bubble at 3 games back of the Grizzlies, who they are playing tonight. I expect Lillard to play close to 40 minutes and put up over 20 shots to get his team rolling. He has a solid match up against the Grizzlies who rank 22nd over all and struggle vs opposing point guards. This game will run at a fast pace, which helps the upside of Lillard. I can see him drop 30+ points with close to 10 assists and 5-7 rebounds tonight.
Ricky Rubio- Prior to the break Rubio finally found his grove on the Suns. He is taking more shots and had double digit assists in 8 of the last 10 games with a triple double. Best match up on the board tonight. I will have either Rubio or Devin Booker in most my lineups.
Lonnie Walker- Walker started a few of the scrimmages for the Spurs. Can see him getting solid run tonight against the Kings at close to minimal price.
Ish Smith/Shabazz Napier- The Wizards are with out Beal and Bertans, so these two should get split the run at point guard. Good match up for the Wizards i the fastest paced game on the slate. Also, Jerome Robinson should see playing time . He is listed at minimum price and has shown 10x upside.
The Nets will be with out Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie. This allows LeVert to take over the team (+9.9% usage increase with these two off the court). He should play 35 + minutes tonight and we saw what he can do with more minutes on the floor. In the last 5 games before the break he dropped two 69 burgers. He played over 30 minutes in both of those games.
Luka Doncic- He has the 2nd highest FPPM in the league at 1.7 FPPM. Price is down so take advantage. Nice pace up spot vs a poor defense.
Bogdan Bogdanovic- all around player with 10x upside at his current price. Nice matchup vs the Spurs who are not the same defensively.
Value Options: Wesley Matthews, Kent Bazemore
The Spurs will be with out a few players tonight LaMarcus Aldridge, Trey Lyles and Bryn Forbes. With these players off the court DeRozan gets a a Usage bump from 26 to 33%. He will be the main guy for the Spurs tonight taking on the Kings who have been mediocre vs the SF position. We should see him come close to 40 minutes if the game stays close, which I believe it does. This increases his upside.
Harrison Barnes- Barnes plays a ton of minutes averaging close to 35 minutes a game. Played well right before the break averaging 26 FPs. Last time out vs the Spurs he put up 38 FPs. Usually gets overlooked, so should come in at low ownership.
Troy Brown Jr. -should soak up a ton of minutes with the Wizards down some players.
Value Options: Danuel House Jr.,
Jonathan Isaac-is a steal on FanDuel. Listed as questionable but first game of the day so will have news early. Thanks
The Kings will be with out Marvin Bagley. This solidifies minutes for Bjelica. He is a solid scored and a good rebounder. With the Spurs down a few players Bjelica should have no problem doing well tonight. In the last meeting Bjelica dropped 35 FPs over 32 minutes. Good price on him tonight and should return 6x +. Richaun Holmes should see minutes as well. Cheap option with high upside.
Giannis Antetokounmpo- underpriced and no one on the Celtics can stop him.
Daniel Theis- solidified minutes. Played well last time vs the Bucks 33 FPs.
Value Options: Ersan Ilyasova
Prior to the break we saw Valancuinas minutes increase playing around 30 minutes a game. In the last two games played Valancuinas averaged 27 points and 16.5 rebounds at 54 FPs. The Grizzlies are holding on to the last playoff spot right now. They will need Valancuinas to continue playin FB well. He is a FPPM monster coming in at 1.35 and he gets an excellent matchup to push his upside in. The Blazers have struggled vs opposing centers, so I can see Valancuinas dropping 20/15 easily in this match up.
Kristaps Porzingas- Slightly under priced. Going to have to play solid mini against the Rockets tonight. Should get solid ownership Pivot is DeAndre Ayton.
JakobPoeltl-no Aldridge, Lyles, so Poetl should start and see solid minutes. He does well in the starting lineup and has shown 40 FPs upside.
Brook Lopez-plays well against the Celtics. Low ownership with 7x upside tonight. Thanks
Tomas Bryant-should solid minutes with Bertans off the floor. High upside at a reasonable price. (Updated 12:30)