The Burning Edge - PGA Championship

Alex White

Welcome to the Bay, where the Players play

And we are going for the dub on Sunday

Big Bombs, hit darts, sea gulls roaming

And tee times don’t start til 8 in the morning

Welcome to the Bay, where Players play.

San Francisco will be host to this year's PGA Championship. TPC Harding Park is the venue the Tour has chosen. A course with limited data and no recent history to speak of. The last time Harding Park hosted a competitive tournament was in 2015 when Rory McIlroy beat out Gary Woodland in a match play event. Prior to that in 2009 the highest scoring player in the President’s cup was none other than Tiger Woods. 

With no real data or idea of how the course will truly play, we just need to take a stand on a “type” of player to target this week. The course layout points towards a long iron player that can excel around the greens and limit bogey’s. Length definitely has its advantages off the tee but the rough will be treacherous, so accuracy off the tee gets the nod in my eyes. If we can find a long straight driver of the golf ball that will be priority number one. 

Remember, this is a Major. Anything can happen. Chalk will fail. Chalk will hit. Pick your spots and dont waiver on Wednesday evening. Don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on any golfer that interests you. Just please whatever you do don’t buy into some other tout spreading lies about how a PGA Professional is worth rostering at 6k. That’s an idiotic decision, dont do it. 

For any questions leading up to the lock don’t hesitate to reach out on SLACK Chat for additional information or pivots. 

Let’s go find our edge!

Tournament Stop

Tournament: 2020 PGA Championship

Defending Champion:Brooks Koepka -8

Course: TPC Harding Park

Yardage: 7,234-7,400

Par: 70

Greens: Bentgrass

*156 Players in the field, Top 65 & ties make the cut.

Key Stats

SG Ball Striking: Top 10 in field

-Russell Henley

-Justin Thomas

-Colin Morikawa

-Brooks Koepka

-Paul Casey

-Viktor Hovland

-Joaquin Niemann

-Hideki Matsuyama

-Xander Schauffele

-Doc Redman

SG Around The Green: Top 10 in field

-Brian Harman

-Matt Wallace

-JT Poston

-Rory Sabbatini

-Justin Thomas

-Jordan Spieth

-Jason Day

-Mackenzie Hughes

-Sergio Garcia

-Jon Rahm

Proximity 200+: Top 10 in field

-Shane Lowry

-Sepp Straka

-Richie Werenski

-Jason Day

-Phil Mickelson

-Dustin Johnson

-Doc Redman

-Patrick Cantlay

-Brendon Todd

-Tony Finau

Top 10 overall rankings

-Justin Thomas

-Daniel Berger

-Jason Day

-Kevin Na

-Chez Reavie

-Richie Werenski

-Sepp Straka

-Tom Lewis

-Webb Simpson

-Harris English

These rankings are based on a personalized mixed model created on fantasynational.com.

Top Notch Options

Golfers with the best chance to return value.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,300, FD $11,600)- JT has taken back his number one spot in the OWGR. What better way to defend that title than having a Major the following week? With so many golfers in contention for that position you need to keep your “A” game rolling for at least 3 weeks in a row to separate yourself from golfers like Rahm, and McIlroy. Don’t let the win last week detour you from firing him up again. JT has won back to back events before so it’s definitely in the cards this week. 

First Pivot: Brooks Koepka

Daniel Berger (DK $8,800, $9,700)- Berger has been a weekend scoring machine this season. We just need him to get through that cut line to make his impact. The form has been incredible with five top 5 finishes in his last six tournaments. With a win sandwiched in there you should fire Berger up with confidence because his confidence is through the roof right now.

First Pivot: Webb Simpson

Salary Savers

Golfers to give you salary relief for balanced builds.

Colin Morikawa (DK $8,600, FD $10,700)- The all around game Morikawa brings is super appealing this week. The tee to green game is perfect for this course layout. Long and accurate off the tee will give players a massive edge this week. Morikawa ranks 2nd in fairways gained, and 7th in good drives. Not to mention he ranks 3rd in ball striking and 9th in approach shots. Yes, he will be chalk. This is good chalk in my opinion. Like Chez last week.

First Pivot: Xander Schauffele

Jason Day (DK $8,400, FD $9,900)- If you want a lower owned option compared to Morikawa look no further than broke back Day. In his last three events something has changed in his game, maybe it is his health but he has managed no worse than a 7th place finish in his last three tournaments. The price is perfect for a boom or bust option and a past Major winner. Ranking 3rd overall in my model his stats are lining up perfectly. The great long irons mixed with his world-class ability to scramble makes for a perfect combination on a course with this many challenges.

First Pivot: Matthew Fitzpatrick

Tourney Treasures

Lower owned golfers with upside.

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,700, FD $9,400)- The price seems like a slap in the face to Ancer. He is so talented off the tee and with his elite iron game he should give himself plenty of scoring chances. I really think Ancer can win this tournament. He’s super accurate off the tee ranking 4th overall in this field, and he ranks 5th in bogey avoidance. The only concern I have is the colder weather. He seems to do his damage in the heat of the summer. That is not enough to get me off him. Ancer is the Answer.

First Pivot: Sergio Garcia

Chez Reavie (DK $7,400, FD $8,500)- Good ol Chezticle came in clutch last week. Now in his last three tournaments he has gained strokes in all six major stat categories. The form is pure at this time. He is no stranger to the Major atmosphere as last year he was in the final grouping at the US Open. Don’t sleep on this plodder.

First Pivot: Harris English

Sneaky Suspicion

Gut Play.

Kevin Na (DK $7,000, FD $8,300)- The odds on Na are insane at 200/1 in most places. Na has won 3x in the last two years and has multiple top 5 and top 10 finishes in that time frame. With his exceptional long irons and elite putting on any surface, he should be in consideration for all your betting platforms. Whether you play DFS or outright bets he is definitely worth this risk. 

First Pivot: Shane Lowry

On The Edge

Golfers who just missed the write up cut. Firmly in play.

Jon Rahm

Xander Schauffele

Tiger Woods

Dustin Johnson

Rickie Fowler

Hideki Matsuyama

Patrick Reed

Adam Scott

Jordan Spieth

Tommy Fleetwood

Louis Oosthuizen

Paul Casey

Billy Horschel

Brendon Todd

Joaquin Niemann

Scottie Scheffler

Adam Hadwin

Tom Lewis

Kevin Streelman

Corey Conners

Doc Redman

Russell Henley

Luke List

JT Poston

Dylan Fritelli

Sepp Straka

Danny Lee

Outrights and Props

For the degenerate in all of us.

Outright to Win: Justin Thomas 10/1, Webb Simpson 28/1, Daniel Berger 40/1, Jason Day 40/1, Abraham Ancer 66/1, Russell Henley 200/1, Kevin Na 200/1

First Round Leaders: Brooks Koepka 20/1, Colin Morikawa 40/1, Jordan Spieth 55/1, Chez Reavie 80/1, Kevin Na 110/1, Danny Lee 150/1

Best Props: 

Top 5 Bets 

Abraham Ancer 12/1

Colin Morikawa 6.5/1

Russell Henley 35/1

Top 10 Bets 

Shane Lowry 6.5/1

Abraham Ancer 6.5/1

Russell Henley 16/1

Top 20 Bets

Kevin Na 5.5/1

Harris English 4.75/1

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