The Power Fade - Wyndham Championship

markfarris

The Power Fade – PGA DFS

By: Mark Farris

Tournament:Wyndham Championship

Course:Sedgefield Country Club (Par 70 – 7,100 Yards)

Location:Greensboro, NC

Corollary Courses:Harbour Town (RBC Heritage)

Well, last week was a helluva tournament to watch and the fact that I had multiple 6/6 lineups going into the weekend, I was encouraged. Ultimately, I missed out on a $1,000 win by 3 points. Welcome to PGA-DFS Mark! One more DJ birdie or a solo-2nd and I’m probably golden. But, despite that, I was really encouraged by our plays in this article last week. The Tiger Fade was essentially correct in that I didn’t expect value out of him. He got about 6.5x and 9x to 10x is, I think, the goal. That gets you 450-500 points out of a lineup. ($50K salary @ 9 or 10 points per $1K).

Oh……and I really like my nickname for Collin Morikawa! “Baby Yoda”. Yeah, I’m sure somehow, someway and somewhere, there is someone that thinks it’s insensitive and I’m an ignorant bastard. But, PETA was probably pissed when Greg Norman was called the “Shark”. The guy is going to be the next generation and after that tee shot on 16, “Move that ball with his mind he must!” If you don’t get that, eh, whatever……. 

Again, I’m limiting my picks in each Tier that I will define as:

  • Budget Breakers$9,000 and above on DK
  • The Sweet Spot$7,500 to $8,900
  • The Grinders$7,000 to $7,400 
  • The Hidden TreasuresBelow $7,000

Typically, the guys in The Sweet Spot and The Grinders will make up a huge chunk of your lineups. More than 2 “Budget Breakers” are damn near impossible to get in your lineup and still feel good about it……even with The Hidden Treasures

Last week, I introduced the “Snap Hooks” to go along with each grouping. I think that helps everyone…..including me because there are guys I like that may just miss my Top Plays.

Course Summary

This course is listed at 7,100 yards. That’s 100 yards less than last week, but this won’t be near as difficult. There are 12 Par 4s and only two of them exceed 450 yards. There are no 200 yard Par 3s and both Par 5s are reachable. In the last 5 years, the winning total has been less than -20 only once.

The fairways will be tighter than what you would think given the scoring history here. Trees are in play, but even that will be less prevalent than Harding Park. The biggest thing here is similar to what you see at the British Open – avoid the fairway bunkers!

Greens are Bermuda and slightly smaller than we’ve seen lately and tiered. Placing approaches on the proper tiers will be important. Historically, they are firm and fast.

For future reference – and I will remind you each week in case you are a new subscriber – I am a DFS player that relies on:

  • current form, 
  • course history
  • “gut” 

Golf is so variant and statistics do matter, but I’ve always found that the way a guy has been playing can flip a statistic on its head. I also know from my own play that, as long as my head is in a good spot, I play better.

Budget Breakers

For the record, these ARE NOT guys that you should avoid. It’s simply an acknowledgement of DFS strategy and pricing.

Webb Simpson ($11,200 DK; $11,900 FD)

This is a high price to me, but he plays so well here that he’s hard to pass on. His last five appearances have yielded 2nd-2nd-3rd-72nd-6th. The 72nd place finish could likely mean missed cut today under the Top 65 and ties rule, but I’m leaning towards him continuing his history here and, maybe, just maybe, not another 2nd place finish.

Tommy Fleetwood ($10,500 DK; $11,700 FD)

I just can’t make myself quit playing him. Yes, I know, he’s underperformed the last couple of weeks, but I think he’s getting his US-Feet under him. He has no history here, but with his iron play, we all know he can go low at any time. I’m guess at least 3 of the 4 rounds this week will be 65 or better.

Snap Hooks:Justin Rose ($9,900 DK; $11,400 FD)

Yes, I’m jinxing myself here. I’ve always liked Rose’s game, but the Honma thing screwed with him I think. Impressed by last week.

Patrick Reed ($10,700 DK; $11,600 FD)

Brooks Koepka ($11,400 DK; $12,200 FD) and Paul Casey ($10,300 DK; $11,500 FD) are two guys that I’m sure will garner a lot of attention this week, but I think I’m steering clear. With the intensity of last week, I’m expecting a ho-hum effort from Casey. Brooks? Well, it’s not a Major so I expect him to approach it as a “get ready” event for the Playoffs and subsequent Majors later in the year.

The Sweet Spot

This section, combined with The Grinders, will be where you get a lot of your roster slots unless you really going for a lineup that has more risk than you probably want (Milli-maker baby!).

Brendon Todd ($8,900 DK; $10,500 FD)

I think this is a SUPER price for him on DK. He has been playing so well lately and he’s a name that can fly under the radar of the casual player. I look for a solid Top 15 this week again.

Sergio Garcia ($8,500 DK; $10,200 FD)

Sergio’s ball-striking is as good as it has ever been. If he can play outside of “between his ears”, I think he is a Top 15 this week also.

Snap Hooks:Shane Lowry ($8,700 DK; $10,600 FD)

Dylan Fritelli ($7,900 DK; $8,200 FD) – Best value is on FD!

Russell Henley ($7,700 DK; $9,700 FD) – Best value is on DK!

The Grinders

These are guys that are good salary-fits if you need them, are underpriced in my opinion, or just good players that can Top 25 in any given week.

Matt Wallace ($7,400 DK; $8,900 FD)

Jim Furyk ($7,200 DK; $9,000 FD) – I’m a little leery of his pricing on FD!

Scott Stallings ($7,100 DK; $8,900 FD) – a “who is that” cut-maker since the return!

Snap Hooks:Stewart Cink ($7,000 DK; $7,600 FD)

Cameron Davis ($7,000 DK; $8,400 FD)

You can see I’m playing the “old man” game here this week! Jim Furyk and Stewart Cink are both still VERY SOLID golfers. With this not being a “bombers course” and playing relatively easy, these guys can help your lineups. I’m just a little leery of the $9K price tag on Furyk on FanDuel. I’m much more at ease with the DK pricing. For shits-and-giggles, throw Zach Johnson ($7,000 DK; $8,300 FD) into the mix as well. He started out like he found the Fountain of Youth last week, but faded hard on Friday.

The Hidden Treasures

I know I’ve said this before, but ALL of these guys are good or they wouldn’t be here. So, we need to take a closer look and see if we can find one or two that will allows to expand our use of Budget Breakers if you feel so inclined.

Wesley Bryan ($6,600 DK; $7,900 FD) – I’m caught flack in the past for picking him. Yeah, he’s a trick-shot artist and yeah, he was on Big Break! But, he’s a solid golfer that’s finished Top 25 in the last two events he played and is 3 for 3 in cuts made this year. His price on both sites is phenomenal as it relates to risk-reward. Yeah, he could miss the cut, but if he makes it, you already have value.

Talor Gooch ($6,900 DK; $8,200 FD) – C’mon, how can you not like a guy whose last name is “Gooch”. He and Matt Kuchar should play a team event together…….it would sound like constant “booooos” from the crowd even if they played well. Joking aside, he hasn’t rounded back to the form he was Pre-COVID, but he’s had a couple flashes in the last four events. If you believe in patterns, he’s gone T80-T18-T75-T17……so after T80 should be a Top 20 finish, right?

Snap Hooks:Graeme McDowell ($6,700 DK; $8,400 FD)

Luke Donald ($6,500 DK; $7,600 FD) – usually plays well at Harbour Town

POWER FADE(s):

DRAFTKINGS:Brooks Koepka ($11,400 DK; $12,200 FD)

This is a pure pricing play. Much like I felt about Tiger last week, Brooks could come out with “something to prove” and just annihilate the field. But too spend that much money and limit my others, I think I’ll pass.

FANDUEL:Brooks Koepka – Same rationale although FD pricing allows for more versatility in lineup construction – at least to me it does.

PICK TO WIN:Tommy Fleetwood

LONGSHOT TO WIN:Russell Henley

This is a tough week for a fade with anyone. The field is OK, but the post-Major let down is always in play. The excitement level won’t be the same and, with no fans, there really isn’t any outside force to raise the intensity.

Slack Chat is an important tool offered here. I’m on it regularly. It is IMPOSSIBLE to touch on every potential lineup option in an article. If you have questions, ask! If you have an idea, lay it out! If I can’t come up with a rationale to talk you out of it, use it! Your GUT can be a key in PGS-DFS.

REMEMBER, it’s called GOLF because all of the other 4-letter words were taken!

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