With only six games on the schedule this evening, it's a bit more challenging to really differentiate lineups. However, I am planning to fade one of the top plays on the slate, so let's dive in.
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No issues for any of the six games. Play on!
Blake Snell ($9,700) vs Arizona - Making his debut in his new home ballpark, you think the Padres will take Snell out early after what happened in the World Series?
Well, it's still the first start of the season so don't expect 100+ pitches, but Snell should get a few cracks to at least to twice through the Diamondbacks lineup, especially after Yu Darvish's day ended shorter than expected.
Arizona put a 7-spot on the board yesterday but their projected team total at DraftKings Sportsbook is 3.5 runs, with heavy juice on the under. Snell averaged 11.34 K/9 a season ago and gets a Diamondbacks team that finished 25th out of 30 in wOBA last year.
We talked about the Padres' explosive lineup last night as my favorite team stack of the day, and Snell and the Friars are listed as -220 favorites and could make life difficult for Merrill Kelly ($6,700) this evening. His ERA a season ago was an impressive 2.59, but his xERA was substantially higher (3.85), indicating Kelly got bailed out with some good luck a season ago.
Pablo Lopez ($7,000) vs Tampa Bay - Yesterday's 1-0 Rays' win will be a fairly popular score at LoanDepot Park this season. The Marlins' staff is actually impressive and Lopez comes in very reasonably priced both relative to his competition, and based on matchup.
On the slate, he's fourth in K/9 (9.26), with the second lowest HR/9 rate (0.63) behind only Dallas Keuchel of the White Sox.
Trevor Bauer ($10,500) - Yes, it's Trevor Bauer against a strikeout heavy team (24.1% in 2020), but it's also at Coors Field with a projected total of 12. Bauer will likely leave with 7-9 strikeouts, but at what cost on the scoreboard?
Jesus Luzardo ($7,900) vs Houston
Cristian Javier ($6,500) at Oakland
NOTE - Lineups and starters are subject to change. Stay on alert by being an SI PRO member with real-time alerts delivered in our Discord chat.
MOST POPULAR STACK: Dodgers @ Rockies
1) Mookie Betts (R) - $6,200
2) Corey Seager (L) - $5,800
3) Justin Turner (R) - $5,300
4) Cody Bellinger (L) - $5,700
6) Max Muncy (L) - $5,300
The Dodgers vs. Anthony Senzatela will once again be extremely chalk, but even if you wanted to stack, you'll have to search for bargains everywhere else in your lineup.
Betts is hitting .500 off Senzatela, and Seager has gone .333 with 2 HR and 5 RBI in 15 ABs. If you're looking to differentiate, consider going to the bottom of the L.A. lineup as both AJ Pollack (.438) and Gavin Lux (.429) have done well in their previous matchups.
FAVORITE LOWER OWNERSHIP GAME STACK: Giants at Mariners
1) Austin Slater (R) - $3,500
2) Mike Yastrzemski (L) - $5,000
3) Donovan Solano (R) - $3,200
4) Evan Longoria (R) - $3,700
6) Wilmer Flores (R) - $3,700
1) Mitch Haniger (R) - $3,100
2) Ty France (R) - $3,100
3) Kyle Seager (L) - $4,700
6) Dylan Moore (R) - $4400
I love this matchup for all the hitters as two soft tossing veterans are likely to see some serious hard contact.
Granted it was Spring Training, but Johnny Cueto enters tonight with an ERA just north of 10.00 in his three appearances. The Mariners were slow to get their bats going against Kevin Gausman, but erupted late in the game and ended up coming back to win with terrific at-bats, notably Moore's in extra innings.
As for Kikuchi, his HR/9 was far superior in 2020 (0.57) than in 2019 (2.00), but both left-handers and right-handers equally feast on him when he leaves his split-finger up in the zone. The Giants also have several right-handed dominant bats, and Yastrzemski actually has even more impressive reverse splits which set up nicely as well.
AROUND THE HORN: (Top Values at Each Position):
CATCHER: Tom Murphy - $2,400 vs Giants
FIRST BASE: Josh Fuentes - $3000 vs Dodgers
SECOND BASE: Ty France - $3,800 vs Giants
THIRD BASE: Ryan McMahon - $3,600 vs Dodgers
SHORTSTOP: Miguel Rojas - $3,500 vs Rays
OUTFIELD: Raimel Tapia ($3,200 vs Dodgers), Mitch Haniger ($3,100 vs Giants), Tommy Pham ($3,200 vs Diamondbacks), Austin Slater ($3,500 at Mariners))
HOME RUN POOL PICK: Jose Abreu ($5,800) vs. Angels
- .667 BA with 2 HR and 4 RBI in just three ABs... He owns his soul.
VALUE HOME RUN POOL PICK: Kyle Seager ($4,700) vs. Giants
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