Tonight brings a six-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET. Droppin Dimes will go over my favorite plays for the slate. It will have one player at each position with a full write-up and a few value plays. These are my favorite options. You won't always see the highest-priced players or the most obvious plays. Players listed first at each position are my favorite and a good start to build a lineup around.
(Note: All pricing and fantasy points are based on DraftKings but can be used for all sites.)
This chart shows a breakdown of today's games with point totals, pace, spread, and opponents' overall defense rating over the last 15 days. It is a good place to start. I recently added a team rating and game rating. This will help determine what team and or game are in good spots.
The Knicks get the best matchup on the board tonight against the Kings. They also pick up a five-possession pace bump. Coming in second is the Nuggets, who play the Wizards.
Keep an eye on the injury status of players as they can be ruled out right before lock.
GPP Play of the night
AFA has seen solid minutes as of late and gets an excellent matchup tonight. This is a spot where he should see an upside game. His price is only $3,500, and I am expecting a 25 fantasy point performance from him tonight.
Derrick Rose/Immanuel Quickley, New York Knicks ($4,600/$4,100)
The Knicks will most likely be without their starting point guard Elfrid Payton tonight, which opens up a start and additional minutes for these two players. The Knicks get the best defensive matchup on the board tonight as they play the Kings. The Kings have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing teams over the past 15 days. Rose should be the more popular play tonight, with Quickley coming in at lower ownership. Both players should see 25-30 minutes, and they are both in the top ten on my model for tonight. Rose comes in at 37.8 projection, while Quickley has a 24 fantasy point projection, which I can see him exceeding 30 tonight. They are both good values and a good start to a lineup tonight. An option would be to play one at PG and the other at SG. Nice salary saver.
Also consider: Luka Doncic (Guards continue to play well against the Sixers), Jamal Murray (On fire as of late and excellent matchup tonight)
Contrarian play: Ja Morant (Playing well as of late)
VALUE: Jalen Brunson, Pat Beverley (Contrarian option), Shake Milton
Bruce Brown, Brooklyn Nets ($4,600)
The Nets have been without Kevin Durant for a while now, which opened up some additional minutes and usage. Brown has started and averaged around 28 minutes over the last five games. He has played well over the last two games scoring 29.5 and 40 fantasy points. Tonight, the Nets play one of the worst defensive teams over the past 15 days. The Magic have allowed the 5th most fantasy points in that timeframe. This is a good spot for Brown as I have him projected for around 26 minutes and come in at close to 30 fantasy points.
Also consider: Kyrie Irving, Seth Curry
VALUE: Facundo Campazzo, Tim Hardaway Jr and Josh Richardson
Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks ($8,200)
Middleton has been a bit up and down lately with only one game over 40 fantasy points in his last seven games. His minutes have been solid, coming in at over 35 per game in that timeframe. This play is based on the matchup, and I expect this game to stay somewhat close. The Pelicans rank 26th in overall defense over the past 15 days. His peripheral stats have been there, but he has lacked a bit in scoring. This is a spot where he should play well enough to exceed his value of 41 fantasy points.
Also consider: Ben Simmons (This is a Simmons game. No one on the Mavericks can guard him), Will Barton, Josh Hart (Was high on him yesterday, and he disappointed. I expect him to show up tonight.)
VALUE: Pat Connaughton, Deni Advija
Julius Randle, New York Knicks ($9,200)
Randle continues to show up night after night and barely gets a price bump. His minutes have been secure, coming in around 37 per night. He put up 20 or more real points in seven straight games and drops about six dimes per night. A big man that is a good passer gives him the ability to stack up fantasy points. Tonight, he gets an elite matchup against the worst defensive team over the past 15 days. I have him projected for 50.9 fantasy points but expect him to have close to 60.
Also consider: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Michael Porter Jr
VALUE: Al-Farouq Aminu, Zeke Nnaji
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets ($10,400)
The center position is loaded tonight, especially at the top. Nikola Vucevic gets an elite matchup against the Nets (27th vs. centers), Joel Embiid gets an excellent matchup against the Mavericks (22nd vs. centers), and Nikola Jokic gets an excellent matchup against the Wizards (27th vs. centers). All three of these are good options tonight, but I am leaning towards Jokic, who has the highest rating on my model. He has triple-double capabilities just about any night and is close to averaging one on the year (27/10.9/8.4). He plays around 36 plus minutes per game and usually takes over 20 shots per game. The Nuggets just played a game against the Wizards four games ago, and he put up 59 fantasy points.
Also consider: Nikola Vucevic, Joel Embiid
VALUE: Nerlens Noel (If you don't play Randle), Willie Cauley-Stein
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