Tonight brings a nine-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET. Droppin Dimes will go over my favorite plays for the slate. It will have one player at each position with a full write-up and a few value plays. These are my favorite options. You won't always see the highest-priced players or the most obvious plays. Players listed first at each position are my favorite and a good start to build a lineup around.
(Note: All pricing and fantasy points are based on DraftKings but can be used for all sites.)
This chart shows a breakdown of today's games with point totals, pace, spread, and opponents' overall defense rating over the last 15 days. It is a good place to start. I recently added a team rating and game rating. This will help determine what team and or game are in good spots.
The Knicks get the best matchup on the board tonight against the Kings. They also pick up a five-possession pace bump. Coming in second is the Nuggets, who play the Wizards.
Keep an eye on the injury status of players as they can be ruled out right before lock.
If-then situations: If a player sits out, then the player listed after is the play.
- Bam Adebayo: Kelly Olynyk
- Tyler Herro: Kendrick Nunn,
- Saddiq Bey: Josh Jackson, Saben Lee, Svi Mykhailiuk
- Cody Zeller: Bismack Biyombo, PJ Washington
- Cam Reddish: Danilo Gallinari
- Dario Saric: Frank Kaminsky, Cam Johnson
Game of the Night
Detroit Pistons vs. Sacramento Kings
This game comes in with the second-highest total on the night. The Pistons get an excellent matchup against the 30th ranked Kings (rating over the past 15 days). The game has a tight spread, and I expect both sides to have two to three players hit or exceed value. Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Saben Lee, or Dennis Smith Jr. are all very good options. Isaiah Stewart is a sneaky play coming in at only $3,100. He should see around 18-22 minutes and should shine in this matchup. On the other side, the Kings have De'Aaron Fox, who is underpriced, and Harrison Barnes is playing well again. I would also add Marvin Bagley and Richaun Holmes.
The Golden State Warriors and Charlotte Hornets game is another game to target.
GPP Play of the Night
Isaiah Stewart, Detroit Pistons
He should see around 15-20 minutes tonight and could see a few more if Saddiq Bey ends up sitting out. Stewart has flashed close to 10x upside in only 18 minutes. He did this last game against the Pelicans by providing 30.5 fantasy points in 18 minutes. Tonight is another spot where he can shine in limited minutes and makes a nice risk/reward value play.
De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings ($7,700)
Fox has played well over the last 10 games averaging 36 minutes, 43.1 fantasy points, 23.6 points, 8.7 assists, and 19 shot attempts. He has shown an upside of over 60 fantasy points in this timeframe. His price has come down $1,000 over this same span, but he continues to play well. DraftKings has him a bit underpriced tonight against a depleted Pistons team. Fox just dropped 29/4/11 (52.5 fantasy points) against a tough Knicks defense. I am expecting another 50 burger from him tonight.
Also consider: Trae Young, Stephen Curry, Kyle Lowry
VALUE: Dennis Smith Jr., Saben Lee, Theo Maledon
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder ($8,800)
SGA has played well over the last three games averaging 51 fantasy points, 36.5 minutes, and 33 points. The Thunder will be without Al Horford and Hamidou Diallo, who both have a 23% usage rate this season. SGA will pick up some of their usage along with a few additional minutes tonight. This is an excellent matchup against the Atlanta Hawks in what should be a faster-paced, high-scoring game. His recent performance, along with the excellent matchup, make him a solid play. He should be in line for another 50+ fantasy point performance.
Also consider: Kelly Oubre, Kevin Huerter
VALUE: Jeremy Lamb, Malik Monk
Gordon Hayward, Charlotte Hornets ($6,700)
Haywards continues to play big minutes every night, averaging around 35. His price has come down to under 7K due to a few games in the 20 fantasy point range. The price is hard to pass for the minutes he plays and his upside. The Hornets play against the Warriors tonight, who rank 23rd against opposing small forwards. He comes in as the top-rated player on my model today and is projected for 42.7 fantasy points.
Also consider: Harrison Barnes (Price is down, but he is playing well again), Jerami Grant (I will have either Grant or Plumlee in most of my lineups)
VALUE: Danuel House Jr., Josh Jackson
Danilo Gallinari, Atlanta Hawks ($5,000)
Gallo finally has his breakout game this year, dropping 38 points and 55.5 fantasy points. This was something I have been waiting for since he returned to the court. He has the potential to drop 20 plus points every night and add 5-8 rebounds when he gets the minutes. The Hawks' injuries allowed him to play 33 minutes last game, and he could see over 30 again if Cam Reddish sits out. Either way, this is a good spot against one of his old teams. The Thunder have allowed the 22nd most fantasy points to opposing teams over the past 15 days and rank 28th against opposing forwards. Gallo comes in as the second-highest rated player on my model behind Hayward. I have him projected for 30.7 fantasy points, but it could be higher if Reddish sits out.
Also consider: Domantas Sabonis, Draymond Green (Back-to-back 45+ pts), Marvin Bagley
VALUE: Darius Bazley, Isaiah Roby, Mike Muscala (Low ownership), Xavier Tillman
Mason Plumlee, Detroit Pistons ($6,500)
Plumlee gets the best matchup on the board going against the faster-paced Kings, who rank 29th against opposing centers. He is close to dropping a double-double every night and has shown triple-double upside with his above-average passing ability. Also, Plumlee has blocked seven shots over the past two games and usually adds a few blocks and or some steals each night. I have Plumlee projected at 40.7 fantasy points on this night, and his rating is in my top ten in my model.
Also consider: Jonas Valanciunas, Richaun Holmes, P.J. Washington (If Zeller sits out)
VALUE: Tristan Thompson (Boston will need his size), Marc Gasol, Bismack Biyombo
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