CFB DFS: Championship Saturday - 12/7
DraftKings Main slate for CFB this weekend features 8 games on it with a start time of 12:00 PM and the last game kicking off at 8:00 PM EST. This is a slate that features Championship games on it for conferences and so you'll see some teams maybe you aren't used to playing on the main Saturday slates included as well.
The Games ...
Baylor vs Oklahoma - Big 12 Championship
Oklahoma won previous meeting 34-31
Oklahoma comes in as a -9 point favorite and the total is 64, which points to the pace that OU plays at dictating the game more so than Baylor's fairly good defense. OU has been respectable on defense at times this year but this is a spot where both teams should be able to sustain good long drives with their running games and put up decent points. It's a great game to game stack and mix in value from other spots but it will certainly cost you if you want both Quarterbacks -- who are easily the top plays in this game.
When these two teams met just a few weeks back Baylor was up early on Oklahoma but the Sooners led a late charge and won 34-31 behind 30-42, 297 yards and 4 TD passes plus 114 rushing yards from Jalen Hurts. He is the highest priced player on the slate for good reason this week.
Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan - MAC Title Game
CMU is -6.5 point favorites and the total is 54. The CMU defense gives up 240 yards per game via the air, however they are fortunate to face a Miami (OH) offense who only averaged around 180 yards total through the air per game, which is bottom of all schools. I would suspect CMU wins this game easily on their ground attack where Miami (OH) has yielded a ton of production. Senior RB Jonathan Ward and Soph. RB Kobe Lewis did most of the damage for CMU on the ground this year.
Louisiana-Lafayette vs Appalachian State - Sun Belt Championship
Appalachian State won previous meeting 17-7.
These teams are fairly mirror images of each other as they run it about 2:1 ratio and with lots of success. The lean has to go to the App State side who has a slightly better defense and is led by RB Darrynton Evans and his 16 rushing TD on the season. App State comes in as only 6.5 point favorites but I wouldn't be shocked if they run away with this one. The total of 56 feels a little high given the prior meeting was low scoring and the Rajin Cajun's held Evans to only 69 yards in that contest, but something tells me we see the total get right near that 56 somehow and with this being a true home game for App State, they would be the obvious team to run away with it.
Cincinnati vs Memphis - AAC Title Game
Memphis won LAST week in the prior meeting 34-24.
These two teams literally just met last week and now get to square off once again a week later in Memphis... Fun! You might start to notice a theme on these first few games, but it'll end quickly with the rest. That theme is the ground game and we have two studs, Michael Warren (Cincy) and Patrick Taylor Jr (Memphis) that should square off. Both though have a couple vultures as Taylor's absence for most of the season led to Freshman Kenneth Gainwell dominating on the ground for Memphis and remains part of a 1-2 punch. The Bearcats QB Desmond Ridder will rush quite often as well, although not as effectively as some other rushing Quarterbacks but he draws away the attention from Warren. I can see this being a sneaky high scoring back and forth game IF Ridder plays well.
Georgia vs LSU- SEC Championship
Honestly I don't think this is the marquee game but it'll get hyped up as such. Georgia had some bad injuries last weekend and although they have a very good defense, the LSU Tigers offense has been so good and going into this fantastic offensive stadium they should continue this weekend. Georgia WR George Pickens being suspended for the first half is a major dagger for them and he would have been a must start, but now is certainly a little risky even at his very tempting price of $4,700 even with him knowingly being out for a half.
Hawai'i vs Boise State - Mountain West Championship
Boise State won prior meeting 59-37
Buckle up, no two teams combine to throw the ball more on this slate than these two. Hawai'i is known for airing it out (38+ times per game) and will likely do a ton of that as Cedric Byrd, JoJo Byrd and Jared Smart give them three high volume receivers, but questions around instability at Quarterback could make this a tough stack to roll with. George Holani for Boise State was a little bit of a let down at RB last week as chalk, but once again should be a feature play in many DFS lineups. Cooler temps in this game and Boise State having played well defensively last time they met could turn into a great game flow spot for the running game for Boise. Overall, do not expect another 90+ point game between these two teams.
Virginia vs Clemson - ACC Championship
Congrats to Clemson on winning the junior varsity division. Dabo can keep crying river about it, but enough is enough. They're clearly the best team in the ACC and one of the top four in the country and will get their chance to defend the title. Don't be shocked if, when Clemson comes out throwing early and often and tries to put this one away by halftime.
Ohio State vs Wisconsin - Big Ten Championship
This is the game I think should be the marquee match-up. I'm still not sold Ohio State is as good as they are made out to be, but Wisconsin certainly isn't going to be anyone's upset pick as the second largest underdog on this slate at -16.5. But they do have one major factor in their favor and that is the best non QB on the slate on offense in Jonathan Taylor. The workhorse back should be a massive contrarian play with so many other RB being viable options, but Ohio State is gonna see him a TON and he is the Badgers hope for an upset.
With conference championship games we naturally see lots of good defenses and thus it's hard to find a viable mid range Quarterback option facing a bad team this week. The safety net of Hurts and Burrow being the stars of their teams offenses really make justifying the use of one of them as your QB1 this week smart and because we're so deep in other spots I don't believe its a great week to play 2 QB unless you are doing a game stack and the most logical one would be Hurts/Brewer.
- Jalen Hurts - $9,000
- Joe Burrow - $8,300 ... Although UGA is a really good defensive team the lean should go to the LSU passing game still in this contest. Burrow will get his just like Hurts will.
- Charlie Brewer - $7,600
- Trevor Lawrence - $7,700 .. My contrarian QB of the day.
- Desmond Ridder - $6,100
I see RB being where the slate blows up this week, as we have lots of good mid range plays here, tons of depth and honestly no insane prices on these guys to where everyone ends up on the same exact plays. Good spot to go deep at your FLEX spot this week is RB and even some builds with 4 RB are very tempting.
- Jonathan Taylor - $7,900 ... My feeling is that Wisconsin won't score 14 points without Taylor getting 100% of them, so if Taylor does get those two touchdowns and 100 yards, you'll be kicking yourself for not having him as a late night hammer. A long slate like this folks will find it hard to wait for their points. Not me, Taylor is my favorite stud to play this week.
- Darrynton Evans - $7,000 ... App State is at home, facing a team they handled earlier this season and ULL gives up 170+ yards per game on the ground. Hard to fade.
- George Holani - $5,600
- Jonathan Ward - $6,600
- Kenneth Gainwell - $7,500 .... He has to share with Taylor which makes it easier for me to go Taylor over Gainwell, but not a terrible play.
- Patrick Taylor Jr - $6,200
- Michael Warren III - $6,300
With only the 8 games and some less than appetizing passing spots I feel you're gonna have to have that QB-WR combination with one on the other side in a tournament this week.
- Ja'Marr Chase - $7,800
- CeeDee Lamb - $6,800
- Cedric Byrd II - $6,700
- Justin Jefferson - $6,500: I see him scoring 20 points this week in a 2 TD spot.
- Denzel Mims - $6,100
- JoJo Ward - $5,900
- Justyn Ross - $5,700
- CT Thomas - $4,900
- George Pickens - $4,700 ... Suspended for first half of game