CFB DFS: Conf Champ Saturday

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We're wrapping up the regular season this weekend with a short slate of conference Championship games. DraftKings has an 8 game slate and FanDuel as typical has a larger slate but the same core games are on both sites and so the plays you're gonna see listed will apply to both sites (price aside).

Key Games to target

  • Texas vs Oklahoma - Big 12 Championship - OU: 78
  • Alabama vs Georgia - SEC Championship - OU: 63.5
  • Northwestern vs Ohio State - Big 10 Championship - OU: 60.5
  • Memphis vs UCF - AAC Championshpi - OU: 65

Game of the day - Texas vs Oklahoma

The big game of the day by a mile is the Big 12 Championship which kicks off at Noon (11 Central where the game is played in Dallas) featuring a re-match of the shootout earlier this season between the Longhorns and Sooners. It's a really difficult game to fade as even on a big slate it would be the most popular game of the day, but on a short slate it's going to get heavy ownership. It's difficult to game stack the players here though, so I want to present you with three ways to approach this game

  1. The logical route that most will take is to get a couple key players on both sides of the game. Most will take Kyler Murray from Oklahoma as he's clearly the best player going on the slate in terms of expected pace and usage rushing and throwing. Murray is one of those special players who can put up a 40 without breaking much of a sweat. Most will look at Murray paired with one of his WR Brown, Lamb or value Calcaterra and run it back on the other side with either the QB in Super-Flex (Ehlinger) or Lil'Jordan Humphrey who went for 9-133-1 last time these teams met in the Texas upset.
  2. The all in route would mean punting both RB spots and getting both QB and 4 WR. It's extremely risky but it actually can be kinda creative if you fade Brown and Humphrey, but use CeeDee Lamb, Grant Calcaterra, Collin Johnson and Devan Duvernay to get heavy exposure in the passing game while also getting both QB who do have some rushing upside themselves. On DraftKings, yon can pull this off and then still have $10k total for both RB spots in another game. It's a creative way to stack this game as much as you can.
  3. The get crazy route is just to fade the game all together, hope for a 27-23 game and then go drink at the bar once you realize how dumb that is.

I personally lean a mix between option 1 and option 2 as I honestly dont wanna fade Humphrey here, but I will fade Brown.

GAME STACK: Murray, Lamb, Humphrey, Johnson, Ehlinger

Slate Position Rankings / Targets

Quarterbacks

  1. Kyler Murray - OU
  2. Tua Tagovailoa - BAMA ... Tua is too cheap in a game where he finally will play 4Q
  3. Sam Ehlinger - Texas
  4. Dwayne Haskins - OSU

Value:

  1. Darriel Mack Jr - UCF ... Mack steps in for the injured Milton and is likely a chalk option paired with Murray this week. I don't mind him
  2. Ryan Willis - VT ... This is a weird game to get a feel for, it's VT playing a make up game just to try and get a bowl berth.
  3. Clayton Thorson - NW

Running Backs

Honestly ... I hate RB this week. So that means we should just stack via option 2 above right? ehhh... Not so fast. Etienne is gonna get 20 points and Henderson should hit 20 as well, it's just a matter of how much do you really wanna spend on them for just 20 points in a spot where Etienne is in a blowout and Henderson is gonna still split some usage. The Marshall RB situation appears cloudy and even though they have a good match-up, they're also playing a game they weren't planning on playing in the first place. If you want to take some risk here I would look at the UCF and Northwestern.

  1. Travis Etienne - Clemson
  2. Isaiah Bowser - NW ... Price considered he is a favorite play. Ohio State just had their Bowl game by destroying Michigan at home but this defense has been getting gashed on the ground and Bowser would be the lock button play here to take advantage of that. Its a game with a sneaky good total of 60 and I think Northwestern covers and even pulls off the upset here.
  3. Darrell Henderson - Memphis ... Henderson is splitting carries lately and likely is low owned due to everyone spending $ on the OU-Texas game
  4. Kennedy Brooks - OU
  5. Greg McCrae - UCF
  6. Patrick Taylor Jr - Memphis

VALUE:

  1. Brenden Knox -Marshall
  2. Ronnie Rivers - Fresno
  3. Keaontay Ingram - Texas

Wide Receivers

I broke down the OU/TEX game above and so those guys are listed here mainly in order of their usage

  1. OU Receivers -- Brown, Lamb, Calcaterra
  2. TX Receivers -- LJH, Johnson, Duvernay
  3. KeeSean Johnson - FRESNO
  4. Jerry Jeudy - Bama

Mid Range

  1. Damonte Coxie - Memphis
  2. Gabe Davis - UCF
  3. Dredrick Snelson - UCF

Value

  1. Cameron Green - Northwestern
  2. Mecole Hardman - UGA

We're wrapping up the regular season this weekend with a short slate of conference Championship games. DraftKings has an 8 game slate and FanDuel as typical has a larger slate but the same core games are on both sites and so the plays you're gonna see listed will apply to both sites (price aside).

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