Week 17 NFL DFS Reports
Davante Adams, GB (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,300)
Between Week 2 to Week 6, Adams only had nine catches for 97 yards while leaving one game early and missing two other weeks. Over his other 11 contests, he has been a complete beast (100/1,231/17) while averaging 11.8 targets. Adams scored over 30.00 fantasy points in six matchups, highlighted by three games (14/156/2, 13/196/2, and 11/142/3). The Bears held him to six catches for 61 yards and one touchdown in Week 12. Chicago has the fifth-best defense (32.07 FPPG) against wide receivers (181/2,369/14), with the Lions having the most success (17/301/2). Five wide receivers (Calvin Ridley – 5/110, A.J. Brown – 4/101/1, Justin Jefferson – 8/135 and 8/104, and Marvin Jones – 8/116/1) gained over 100 yards. CB Kyle Fuller plays well in coverage, but Adams has the edge while playing with a top quarterback in 2020.
Calvin Ridley, ATL (DK – $8,500/FD – $8,700)
The Falcons relied on Ridley in the passing game over the past four weeks (5/108, 8/124/1, 10/163/1, and 5/130), moving him to fifth in wide receiver scoring (18.11 FPPG). His season started with similar success in four (9/130/2, 7/109/2, 5/110, and 8/136) over the first five weeks. He beat the Bucs for an impact game (32.60 fantasy points) in Week 15. When at his best, Ridley receives more than 10 targets per game. Tampa slipped to 22nd in wide receiver defense (210/2,574/16) after struggling three times (27/314/2, 25/369/3, and 19/249/2) over the last five weeks. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting will give up plenty of catches with a high catch rate and damage in touchdowns. Ridley should be active in this matchup, and a chaser game may lead to an impactful opportunity.
Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,500)
The Josh Allen to Diggs combination over the last four weeks was the gift that kept giving. In Week 16, he helped seal overall championships in the season-long contests by securing nine catches for 145 yards and three touchdowns. Over his previous three games, Diggs delivered a floor of 10 catches (10/92, 10/130/1, and 11/147). He already set career-highs in catches (120), receiving yards (1,459), and targets (158). In Week 2, Diggs had eight catches for 153 yards and one touchdown against the Dolphins. Even more impressive is his catch rate (75.9). Miami is league average against wide receivers (185/2,703/11), with one team having impactful success (BUF – 20/358/3). CB Byron Jones has been a disaster in coverage this season, with receivers beating him for big yards per catch and some damage in touchdowns. A hot player with an excellent opportunity.
DeAndre Hopkins, ARI (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,200)
Heading into Week 17, Hopkins has a hip issue that may be minor. He has eight catches or more in his previous four starts. Hopkins scored over 20.00 fantasy points in eight of his 15 games while delivering only one game (9/169/1) worthy of supporting his current salary at DraftKings. He has over 100 catches for the third straight season, but Hopkins has a four-year low in touchdowns (6). In Week 13, he had eight catches for 52 yards and one touchdown against the Rams. Los Angeles leads the NFL in wide receiver defense (186/1,993/7), with one team gaining over 200 yards (BUF – 15/236/1). CB Jalen Ramsey didn’t shadow Hopkins in their first matchup, but CB Darious Williams is no slouch in coverage in 2020. Not an impactful contest, and touchdowns tend to be an issue.
Allen Robinson, CHI (DK – $7,700/FD – $7,700)
In a layup game in Week 16, Robinson finished with 10 catches for 103 yards, but he fell a touchdown short of an impact game. He already set a career-high in catches (100). Robinson scored over 30.00 fantasy points in two contests (10/123/1 and 9/123/1) with success as well in his first matchup (8/74/2) against Green Bay. The Packers have the fourth-best defense (173/2,174/13) vs. wide receivers. CB Jaire Alexander will shadow at times while being one of the top players in coverage this season. The Bears will try to get him matched up with Green Bay’s weaker cornerbacks. Playing at home should help, but his matchup doesn’t look impactful.
Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,000)
Entering the last week of the season, the Vikings have two wide receivers who rank in the top 10 in PPR leagues. Jefferson sits eighth in wide receiver scoring (16.79 FPPG) while shining at home (48/812/7), highlighted by four games (7/175/1, 9/166/2, 7/70/2, and 9/121/1). In Week 4, he had three catches for 64 yards against the Lions. Detroit allows the second-most fantasy points (44.21 FPPG) to wide receivers (226/3,075/18), with nine different teams gaining over 200 yards receiving. Six wide receivers (DeAndre Hopkins – 101/137, Keelan Cole – 6/143, DJ Moore – 7/127, Will Fuller – 6/171/2, and 7/115/1, Davante Adams – 7/115/1, and Mike Evans – 10/181/2) had a high level of success. The Lions are banged up at cornerback, giving Jefferson a chance at hitting on a long score. The trick here is finding enough volume to support his higher salary.
Mike Evans, TB (DK – $7,500/FD – $8,100)
Tom Brady leaned on Evans over the last two weeks (6/110 and 10/181/2), setting him up to extend his streak with over 1,000 receiving to seven seasons. He needs 40 yards on Sunday to accomplish his goal while posting a career-high in touchdowns (13). His other two productive games (7/104/1 and 7/122/1) also came at home. Atlanta ranks 29th in wide receiver defense (224/3,005/16). Ten wide receivers (CeeDee Lamb – 6/100, Amari Cooper – 6/100, Allen Robinson – 10/123/1, Robby Anderson – 8/112, Justin Jefferson – 9/166/2, Kenny Golladay – 6/114, Jerry Jeudy – 7/125/1, Michael Thomas – 9/104 and 9/105, and Mike Evans – 6/110) gained over 100 yards against Atlanta. CB Kendall Sheffield will give up big plays and a high catch rate. Evans remains in a three-way split for targets in Tampa, but his scoring ability can lead to an impactful game.
Adam Thielen, MIN (DK – $7,400/FD – $7,900)
Thielen remains a force in scoring (14) with strength in his catch rate (68.0). He needs 132 receiving yards to reach 1,000 for the third time of his career. Thielen scored over 20.00 fantasy points in seven different contests, with his best success coming at home (6/110/2 and 8/123/2). He had his lowest output (2/38) of the season against the Lions. CB Amani Oruwariye allows a low catch rate, but he will give up big plays. An interesting option if the Vikings want to get him his needed yards to reach another milestone.
DK Metcalf, SEA (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,600)
The Seattle wide receiver slot machine rarely paid off over the past seven weeks. Metcalf played well in Week 12 (10/177) while underachieving in most of his other six matchups (2/28, 3/46/1, 5/80, 6/61/1, 5/43, and 6/59). He dominated the 49ers in Week 8 (12/161/2). Metcalf has already set career-highs in catches (80), receiving yards (1,282), and touchdowns (10). The Seahawks gave him eight targets or fewer in six of his last seven contests. San Francisco is league average against wide receivers (197/2,325/16) while struggling three teams (SEA – 19/212/3, GB – 13/229/3, and BUF – 24/321/3). CB Jason Verrett likes to keep wide receivers in front of him with only one touchdown allowed this season. Seattle wants to run the ball and control the clock, which leaves his top two receivers with a weaker opportunity than they showcased early in the season.
A.J. Brown, TEN (DK – $7,200/FD – $8,400)
Brown struggled to make plays in the snowstorm in Week 16 (4/43) in Green Bay. Over the previous nine games, he gained fewer than 45 yards in four matchups (4/24/1, 1/21, 5/44/1, and 4/43). Brown has 10 touchdowns in 13 games while needing 76 yards to reach 1,000 for the second straight season. He scored over 20.00 fantasy points in six matchups (21.20, 22.80, 27.30, 20.10, 25.80, and 24.20). In Week 6, Brown had five catches for 58 yards and two touchdowns against the Texans. Houston ranks 25th against wide receivers (206/2,585/19). The Texans gave up over 100 yards to seven players (Adam Thielen – 8/114/1, Justin Jefferson – 4/103, Davante Adams – 13/196/2, D.J. Chark – 7/146/1, Damiere Byrd – 6/132/1, T.Y. Hilton – 8/110/1, and Allen Robinson – 9/123/1). CB Vernon Hargreaves has been one of the weaker players in coverage this season. With Derrick Henry expected to be a high percentage play this week, Brown may fly under the radar.
Brandin Cooks, HOU (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,300)
As the lead wide receiver for the Texans in Week 16, Cooks had his second impact game (7/141/1) of the year. He moved to 27th in wide receiver scoring (12.83 FPPG). Over his last 10 games, Cooks caught 60 of his 82 targets for 846 yards and four touchdowns. He needs 16 yards to reach 1,000 for the fifth time of his career. His top catch game (9/68/1) came in Week 6 against the Titans. Tennessee allows the third-most fantasy points (44.07 FPPG) to the wide receiver position (250/2,872/20), with eight opponents (17/225/1, 26/240/1, 20/236/3, 21/175/2, 21/229/1, 23/233,16/249/3, 19/219/1) gaining over 200 yards. CB Malcolm Butler gives up plenty of yards with some damage in touchdowns. Cooks will get plenty of chances, and the Texans should be chasing on the scoreboard. His only negative is his higher salary at DraftKings.
Chris Godwin, TB (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,400)
Godwin picked up a touchdown in back-to-back weeks, but he doesn’t have a game with more than 100 yards receiving or an impact showing in 2020. His success over 11 games (60/707/5) projects to 97 catches for 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns. In 2019, Godwin gained 15.5 yards per catch (11.8 in 2020) with 25 catches over 20 yards (10 in 2020). CB Isaiah Oliver will give touchdowns and plenty of catches. Overpriced, but his talent and matchup give him a chance at his best game of the season.
Jarvis Landry, CLE (DK – $6,500/FD – $6,700)
Over the past four games (29/318/3), Landry played up to his previous NFL resume. The Browns activated him off the COVID list after missing last week. His only impact game (8/143/1) came in Week 12. Landry only had 38 catches for 471 yards over his first 10 starts. Pittsburgh has a top 10 defense (173/2,372/16 – 9th) against wide receivers. The Steelers will rest players this week, which helps the Browns’ offense. The problem here is Pittsburgh won’t put up the same fight on the scoreboard. Wrong kind of swing in the daily games when adding in his salary.
Robert Woods, LAR (DK – $6,100/FD – $6,800)
The Rams come into Week 17 in a must-win situation, but they lost their starting quarterback, one of their top two wide receivers, and a drop-down at running back. Woods will see an uptick in chances while playing well in Week 13 against the Cardinals (10/85). He slipped to 12th in wide receiver scoring (15.93 FPPG), with his best success coming in two games (7/94/1 and 12/126/1). Arizona is just below the league average vs. wide receivers (36.87 FPPG). The Cardinals may use CB Patrick Peterson in shadow coverage, forcing the Rams to beat them with the secondary wide receivers and tight ends. Plenty of variables, but double-digit targets will help his floor if John Wolford is up to the task passing the ball.
Corey Davis, TEN (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,200)
Ryan Tannehill struggled to get Davis the ball in Week 16 (two targets), leading to no catches for the second time this season. He needs 55 catches to reach 1,000 for the first time of his career while missing a pair of games earlier this year with an injury. Davis played at a high level in three games (8/128/1, 11/182/1, and 4/110/1). Houston has a weakness at their second cornerback position, pointing to Davis having a rebound game.
T.Y. Hilton, IND (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,300)
As expected, Hilton struggled last week (3/60) in Pittsburgh. Over his previous four games, he had 21 catches for 348 yards and four touchdowns. Hilton only had 29 catches for 327 yards with no touchdowns over his first nine games, including four catches for 53 yards in Week 1 vs. the Jaguars. Jacksonville ranks 24th against wide receivers (39.27 FPPG), with six teams scoring over 40.00 fantasy points. Ten wide receivers (Brandin Cooks – 8/161/1, Kenny Golladay – 4/105, Keenan Allen – 10/125, Will Fuller – 5/100/1, Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 4/149/1, Diontae Johnson – 12/111, Jarvis Landry – 8/143/1, Justin Jefferson – 9/121/1, A.J. Brown – 7/112/1, and Allen Robinson – 10/103) gained over 100 yards. CB Chris Claybrooks will have his hands full, and I expect Hilton to deliver an impact game.
Amari Cooper, DAL (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,700)
Despite four catches for 121 yards in Week 16, Cooper only had six catches while ranking behind Michael Gallup (6/11/2) and CeeDee Lamb (3/84/2) in production at wide receiver for the Cowboys. Cooper already set a career-high in catches (86) while gaining over 1,000 yards for the fourth time in his career. His best two games (12/134/1 and 6/112/1) came at home. He finished with only two catches for 23 yards in Week 5 against the Giants. New York played well against wide receivers (198/2,361/13 – 11th) over their last six games (10/94, 8/59/1, 12/149, 15/169, 14/192/1, and 9/70/2). CB James Bradberry continues to shine in coverage, with receivers gaining short yards per catch and with minimal damage in touchdowns allowed. Cooper is a fade for me in Week 17.
Tyler Lockett, SEA (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,500)
Lockett struggled in each of his previous five games (3/23, 6/63, 5/52, 4/34, and 3/44), pushing him down to 13th in wide receiver scoring (15.49 FPPG). Over his previous 12 matchups, he scored fewer than 13.00 fantasy points in 10 games. His two impact games (9/100/3 and 15/200/3) came in Week 3 and Week 7. The 49ers held him to four catches for 33 yards in his previous matchup. CB K’Waun Williams should start this week after ruling out Richard Sherman this week. Williams looks to be overmatched, but Lockett needs Seattle to air the ball out for him to support his fading salary.
DJ Moore, CAR (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,900)
Moore picked up only five catches for 37 yards against Washington last week. He played well in Week 15 (6/132), adding to his success in two other starts (4/96/1 and 7/127) over the previous five matchups. He needs 84 yards to beat success in 2019 (1,175) while having no shot at repeating in catches (87 in 2019 and 61 in 2020). Moore has worked as a big-play wide receiver (17.9 yards per catch), with his one impact game (25.30 fantasy points) coming in Week 7 vs. the Saints. New Orleans sits 12th in wide receiver defense (178/2,421/17). Their most risk came in four matchups (CAR – 17/219/2, CHI – 22/239/2, ATL – 17/225, and ATL – 16/262). CB Marshon Lattimore continues to be up and down in coverage, leading to big scoring plays. Moore has the talent to shine, but his chances tend to hurt his explosiveness.
Robby Anderson, CAR (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,600)
Anderson scored his third touchdown in Week 16 while picking up seven catches, but he finished with only 39 yards. Over the last eight games, Anderson has 46 catches for 416 yards and two scores. His season started with success over his first five weeks (36/489/1). Anderson scored over 20.00 fantasy points in only one game (25.40) that came in Week 1. In Week 7, he had six catches for 74 yards vs. the Saints. CB Janoris Jenkins struggled in his last two games against the Chiefs and Vikings, which came after improved play over his first 11 weeks. More of a coin flip at this point of the year.
Nelson Agholor, LV (DK – $5,400/FD – $5,800)
Since Week 4, Agholor has 43 catches for 765 yards and seven touches on 73 targets while playing at the highest level at home (30/551/5). Over his previous four games on the road, he has been a non-factor each week (0/0, 2/55/1, 5/54, and 4/38). Agholor only had one catch for eight yards in Week 10 against the Broncos. Denver is league average against wide receivers (205/2,423/13) while battling injuries in their secondary over the second half of the season. I’ll fade him due to his rising salary and lousy road resume.
Curtis Samuel, CAR (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,100)
Samuel ended up being a value play at DraftKings in Week 16 (158 combined yards with five catches) while seeing his best opportunity of the year on the ground (7/52). With Mike Davis out this week, Samuel should pick up more rushing attempts. He has three other games (21.40, 26.80, and 21.40 fantasy points) with over 20.00 fantasy points. Samuel moved to 26th in wide receiver scoring (12.89 FPPG). CB Chauncey Gardner-Johnson allows low yards per catch with minimal damage in scoring. Not ideal when adding that New Orleans plays well against the run, but his overall opportunity may be high enough to win at this salary.
CeeDee Lamb, DAL (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,100)
Lamb pushed his way to over 200.00 fantasy points last week after playing well in Week 16 (3/84/2). He ranks 20th in wide receiver scoring (13.94 FPPG) while delivering two other playable games (25.20 and 20.40 fantasy points). Lamb needs 108 yards to reach 1,000 for the year. He played well in Week 5 vs. the Giants (8/124). S Jabrill Peppers will have his hand full in slot coverage, but Lamb still needs Andy Dalton to play well behind center.
Sterling Shepard, NYG (DK – $5,200/FD – $5,500)
After playing well in Week 16 (9/77/1), Shepard popped up on the injury report this week with a rib issue. He struggled over his previous three contests (1/22, 3/35, and 4/51), with a reasonable floor from Week 7 to Week 12 (33/283/1). His only other matchup of value (6/59/1) came in Week 7. Dallas allows 41.55 FPPG (28th) to wide receivers (189/2,604/25). Five receivers (Robert Woods – 6/105, Calvin Ridley – 7/109/2, DK Metcalf – 4/110/1, Tyler Lockett – 9/100/3, Darius Slayton – 8/129, and Adam Thielen – 8/123/2) gaining over 100 yards, but none over the last five weeks. CB Jourdan Lewis should neutralize Shepard in this matchup.
Marvin Jones, DET (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,100)
Over the last six weeks, Jones came up short in three games (6/48, 4/48, and 3/19) while playing well in two contests (8/116/1 and 10/112/1) at home. With Kenny Golladay out for most of the season, Jones saw an uptick in production over his previous 10 games (54/652/6). The Vikings held him three catches for 43 yards and one catch in Week 9. Minnesota played better against wide receivers over their last four games (12/164/1, 11/178/1, 12/136/1, and 8/128). They still rank in the bottom 25 percent of the NFL against wide receivers (194/2,613/21 – 26th). If CB Cameron Dantzler can’t suit up this week, Jones will get a bump in value. The key here is Matthew Stafford playing on Sunday.
Jamison Crowder, NYJ (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,400)
Crowder regained the bounce in his step last week when he beat the Browns for seven catches for 106 yards and a touchdown while also adding a 30-yard touchdown pass. It was his fourth game (29.75) with over 20.00 fantasy points. From Week 9 to Week 15, he only had 19 catches for 193 yards and three touchdowns, which was well below his first three starts (7/115/1, 7/104, and 8/116/1). Crowder only had two catches for 26 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots in Week 9. New England has the eighth-best defense vs. the wide receiver position (182/2,269/18). CB Jonathan Jones will give up touchdowns and a high catch rate. Crowder is a chain mover with scoring ability, and the Patriots’ defense is trending in the wrong direction.
Jakobi Meyers, NE (DK – $5,000/FD – $5,600)
As the only dependable wide receiver for the Patriots over the past 10 games, Meyers had 52 catches for 654 yards, highlighted by two games (12/169 and 7/111). He’s still looking for his first touchdown. His highest output (31.90 fantasy points) came in Week 9 vs. the Jets. New York had a layup against wide receivers in Week 16 (6/72), with the Browns playing without their top four receivers. They rank 23rd defending wide receivers (217/2,692/16). A battle of lousy offenses doesn’t paint an impact picture.
Tee Higgins, CIN (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,100)
Higgins played well against Houston (6/99/1), which came after three dull games (5/56, 5/49, and 3/31). He needs 92 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. He scored over 20.00 fantasy points in two other contests (21.00 and 23.50 fantasy points). Over his previous 13 games, Higgins has 64 catches for 873 yards and six touchdowns. The Ravens held him to four catches for 62 yards. Baltimore is 14th vs. wide receivers (213/2,352/11). CB Marlon Humphrey holds wide receivers to short yards per catch with only three touchdowns allowed. Higgins was limited this week in practice with a hamstring issue. I can’t trust Brandon Allen to repeat his success in Week 16.
Michael Gallup, DAL (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,200)
Over the last four games, Gallup has four touchdowns while playing at a high level in two games (7/86/1 and 6/121/2). Even with an uptick in play, his final stats will fall short of his breakthrough season in 2019 (66/1,107/6). Gallup also played well in Week 3 (6/138/1), with four catches for 73 yards vs. the Giants. CB Isaac Yiadom is a below-average player in coverage with many touchdowns allowed. His jump in his salary makes him a tougher roster in the daily games, with Dallas relying on a three-way split at wide receiver.
MORE DFS: Week 17 DFS Hub