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DFS QB Writeup - Week 4

DFS QB Writeup - Week 4

NFL DFS Week 4: QB Report - The Continued Dominance of Josh Allen

An in-depth NFL DFS guide to the Week 4 quarterbacks to target and fade when setting your daily lineups.
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Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,600)

The Ravens’ express train to the Super Bowl fell off the tracks in Week 3. Patrick Mahomes won the fantasy points battle 43.85 to 16.15. Over the first three games, Jackson doesn’t have a rushing touchdown while attempting only 25.7 passes per game. His completion rate (68.8) is ahead of 2019 (66.1) while trailing slightly in his yards per pass attempt (7.5 to 7.8) and yards per rush (5.7 to 6.9). Washington may be without rookie DE Chase Young who left last week’s game with a groin issue. Kyler Murray had success on the ground (8/67/2) vs. this defense, and Washington gave up two passing touchdowns in each game this year. Jackson will be motivated to pick up Baltimore and carry them on his back this week. A high floor player, but he needs to throw the ball better to regain his elite form.

Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $7,800/FD – $9,000)

Wilson has dominated each of his three games (322/4, 288/5, and 315/5) with an exceptional completion rate (76.7) and a career-best 9.0 yards per pass attempt. His success came against two of the three worst pass defenses (ATL – 38.20 and DAL – 28.48 FPPG), plus the Seahawks' defense also ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed (34.75). Miami comes into this matchup with risk and defending quarterbacks (26.62 FPPG) while also struggling to defend the run (4.9 yards per carry and five rushing touchdowns). Josh Allen beat the Dolphins for 435 combined yards with four touchdowns. Wilson is a great player, and his two top two wide receivers continue to make plays. If you made a profit on him, quadruple down. For all others, fade Wilson to gain an edge in percentage own.

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,700)

The fear of Mahomes facing the great Ravens’ defense led to him being benched by some lower-tier fantasy owners last week. After a dominating game (411 combined yards with five touchdowns) against the Ravens, he is on a pace for 5,216 combined yards with 53 touchdowns. In 2019, Mahomes passed for 283 yards and a touchdown against the Patriots on the road. New England struggled vs. Russell Wilson (288/5), which was a sign that their success last year defending quarterbacks and wide receivers won’t happen this year. Quarterbacks gain 8.2 yards per pass attempt vs. the Patriots with seven passing touchdowns allowed. The mighty Bill Belichick will do his best to slow Mahomes down, which means a soft run defense. Mahomes has the explosiveness to shine in any game, and no one seems to play well on defense in the NFL in 2020.

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,600)

The hot streak of Allen extended to three games. He scored over 30 fantasy points in every contest (33.30, 38.65, and 36.35), leading to 1,122 combined yards with 12 touchdowns. His completion rate (71.1) is well above 2019 (58.8) while already completing 18 passes over 20 yards (47 in 2019). The Raiders have more risk vs. the run (5.6 yards per rush), with each opponent scoring two rushing touchdowns. Las Vegas gave up one passing touchdown each week, with the Saints having the most success (312/1). Buffalo should run the ball well, and the Raiders will lean on Josh Jacobs in this matchup. Allen does get a slight bump due to CB Damon Arnette breaking his thumb.

Dak Prescott, DAL (DK – $7,200/FD – $8,200)

Dak Prescott

In Dallas, the air show arrived over the last two games (450/1 and 472/3), pushing Prescott's season total to 1,262 combined yards with eight touchdowns. He already has 18 completions over 20 yards and five over 40 yards. Cleveland held quarterbacks to 6.6 yards per pass attempt, but they allowed eight passing touchdowns while facing Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Washington. This matchup will be the toughest test for the Browns’ defense. Prescott will be active again in this game, and his depth in his receiving core gives him another favorable matchup.

Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,400)

Murray is the fifth-highest scoring quarterback after three games (29.60, 36.00, and 27.40 fantasy points) thanks to growth as a runner (26/187/4). He’s already thrown five balls to the other team while still lacking length in his pass attempts (7.0 yards). In 2019, he beat the Panthers for 242 combined yards with two touchdowns. Carolina improved against quarterbacks (6.9 yards per pass attempt with three TDs) while continuing to have risk defending running backs (377 combined yards with seven touchdowns and 322 catches). Look for the Cardinals to feature their running backs in this matchup, which will steal away some of Murray's upside.

Jared Goff, LAR (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,500)

The emergence of Darrell Henderson is going to be a big win for Goff and the Rams’ offense in 2020. Over his first three games, he passed for 863 yards with six touchdowns. Goff already has 17 completions over 20 yards while gaining 9.6 yards per pass attempt. The Giants held running backs to 3.8 yards per rush with quarterbacks gaining 762 passing yards with six touchdowns. New York’s defense has been on the field for over 35 minutes per game. A favorable matchup, but Goff needs the Giants to score to have follow-through in his passing stats.

Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,800)

Watson played three of the top teams in the AFC to start the year, leading 17th ranking at quarterback (21.17 FPPG). His best success came in Week 1 (280 combined yards with two touchdowns). Watson continues to have strength in his completion rate (67.4) and yards per pass attempt (8.3). Minnesota struggled to defend wide receivers in two games (22/315/4 and 12/228) with quarterbacks passing for 899 yards with five touchdowns. The Vikings allow 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Watson should get rolling in this game, and the combination of a weak Texans’ defense and Minnesota’s offense should lead to a battle on the scoreboard.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,500)

The Steelers have had one of their running backs rush for over 100 yards in each game this year, which has led to Roethlisberger offering mid-tier value in passing stats (777 yards and seven touchdowns). His best game came in Week 2 (311/2). He needs to improve in the deep passing game (only seven completions over 20 yards). The Titans struggled in back-to-back games vs. quarterbacks (339/3 and 251/3) with wide receivers (28/436/3) doing the most damage. Tennessee needs to clean up its run defense (5.8 yards per rush), which does lower the upside of Roethlisberger on the road.

Cam Newton, NE (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,900)

Las Vegas held Newton to only 162 passing yards and one touchdown last week while minimizing the run game (9/27). Over three games, he threw two touchdowns with double that on the ground. Newton sits seventh in quarterback scoring (26.87 FPPG) with one impact game (444 combined yards with three touchdowns). Kansas City jumped to a big lead in Week 3, leading to them solving Lamar Jackson (180 combined yards with one touchdown). Over the first two games, the Chiefs did show risk in coverage (8.7 yards per pass attempt), but they only allowed one passing touchdown in each game. New England would love to control the clock with the run game. Game flow is critical here.

Joe Burrow, CIN (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,400)

Despite being sacked 14 times over his first three NFL games, Burrow continues to improve. He passed for over 300 yards in back-to-back starts (316/3 and 312/2) while finding his wide receiver rhythm in Week 3 (24 completions for 239 yards and two touchdowns). The Jaguars only have two sacks in three games while allowing quarterbacks to gain 8.5 yards per pass attempt. The Colts passed for 363 yards and a touchdown in Week 1 vs. Jacksonville, and the Titans beat them for four passing touchdowns and 10.0 yards per pass attempt. On the move, and A.J. Green may break free in this matchup.

Tom Brady, TB (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,300)

Brady's expectation being an impactful quarterback in 2020 continues to slip away with each injury to his receiver core. Mike Evans was limited in Week 1. Chris Godwin missed Week 2 with a concussion, and he’ll be out a couple of more games with a hamstring issue at the minimum. On the positive side, the Bucs are 2-1 while standing in first place in the NFC South. Brady does have three touchdowns in two of his three starts, but he’s still looking for his first games with over 300 yards passing game. The Chargers came into 2020 with a top tier defense, but they already have lost three of their top players. Los Angeles allowed only 730 passing yards and three touchdowns over the first three games. Brady is playing without all of his offensive bullets, making him more of a gamble at DraftKings.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,200)

Tannehill made plenty of long plays last week (five completions over 20 yards with two gaining over 40 yards), but he failed to deliver any touchdowns vs. the Vikings. Over the previous two games, he gained 9.2 yards per pass attempt despite missing his top wide receiver. His best game came in Week 2 (239/4). Pittsburgh underachieved defending quarterbacks (819/6) based on their preseason expectations. The Steelers have been great against the run (2.7 yards per rush), which puts the Titans' offense's success in Tannehill's hands in this matchup. More of a grinder game, so he’s a fade for me in the daily tournaments.

Matthew Stafford, DET (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,200)

Stafford has been steady over the first three games (270 passing yards per game with five touchdowns). Last week he had his top wide receiver (Kenny Golladay) back in the starting lineup, which should lead to bigger plays going forward. The Saints have regressed each game defending quarterbacks (239/2, 282/3, and 283/3) while showing the most risk defending tight ends (29/288/4). New Orleans played well vs. the run (3.4 yards per carry). An interesting option if the Saints get Michael Thomas back on the field, which invites a higher scoring battle.

Gardner Minshew, JAC (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,400)

Minshew completed 30 passes in each of his last two games, but he failed to throw a touchdown against Miami (275/0). His yards per pass attempt declined in each game played (8.7, 7.5, and 6.5). He did throw three touchdowns in his first two games with strength in his completion rate (73.8). Cincinnati played well-defending quarterbacks (208/0, 219/2, and 225/1) over the first three games, which was helped by their opponents attempting 36.7 rushes per game. The Jaguars want to run the ball with their new rookie running back, but Cinci may dictate game flow on offense. Sneaky dart.

Drew Brees, NO (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,700)

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Without his top wide receiver, Brees still passed for 600 yards and four touchdowns over his last two games thanks to Alvin Kamara in the passing game (19/234/2). Brees only has six completions over 20 yards with repeated value in his completion rate (70.2). The Lions gave up seven passing touchdowns over the first three games, with quarterbacks passing for 251 yards per game. Detroit does have risk against the run (5.7 yards rush) while struggling in two games defending wide receivers (14/201/1 and 17/208/2). Brees needs Thomas to play to help his scoring ability on the road.

Justin Herbert, LAR (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,700)

Over his first two NFL starts, Herbert passed for over 300 yards in both contests (311/1 and 330/1). Last week he found his top wide receiver (Keenan Allen – 13/132/1) early and often, and Austin Ekeler has been active over the past two contests (4/55 and 11/84). Tampa played great against the run (2.9 yards per rush) with improvement defending quarterbacks (7.1 yards per pass attempt, three touchdowns, and 12 sacks). The Bucs will press Chargers’ wide receivers with an attacking feel. I expect Herbert to struggle in his first road game.

Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,000)

The Browns relied on their run game over the last two wins (35/215/3 and 37/158/2), which led to Mayfield gaining 375 passing yards and four touchdowns over this span. In Week 1, the Ravens held him to 189 yards and one touchdown. Cleveland gained only 6.6 yards per pass attempt on the year while averaging only 28.3 passes per game. Dallas had massive problems defending wide receivers over the past two contests (16/189/3 and 15/225/4), which led to failed games against quarterbacks (273/4 and 315/5). The Cowboys allow 8.0 yards per pass attempt. A chaser game and 40-plus pass attempts give Mayfield a chance at his best game of the year.

Nick Foles, CHI (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,100)

The Bears’ passing game ended up being a great matchup against Atlanta (358 combined yards and four touchdowns), but the stats ended being split by Foles and Mitchell Trubisky. Despite completing only 55.2 percent of passes with an interception, Foles finished with 188 yards and three touchdowns. Chicago named him as the starter for Week 4. Indianapolis hasn’t been challenged in the passing over the first three weeks (173/3, 113/0, and 168/1) while picking up nine sacks. A poor matchup on paper, but the Colts’ defense will be tested by better offenses. Not ideal.

Teddy Bridgewater, CAR (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,800)

Working as a game manager and the lead in Week 3, Bridgewater passed for 235 yards and one touchdown while playing without his explosive running back. He's gaining 8.4 yards per pass attempt with success in his completion rate (74.0). Bridgewater passed for over 300 yards in one game, but he only has two passing touchdowns on the year. The Cardinals faced the 49ers (259/2) in Week 1 that lacked wide receivers (4/41). Over the last two games, Arizona allowed 493 combined passing yards and three touchdowns to Washington and Detroit at home. Worth a flier.

Kirk Cousins, MIN (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,800)

Cousins played much better in Week 3 (251/3), which was his second game at home with success in his yards per pass attempt (10.4 and 9.3). The Vikings want to run the ball, but their defense now has too much risk to keep the game score in line. Cousins needs to clean up his mistakes (six interceptions) to improve his scoring ability. Houston struggled against the run (5.2 yards per rush), but they have played well-defending quarterbacks (211/3, 204/1, and 237/2) when adding in that they faced Kansas City, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Only in play if the Texans jump out to a big lead.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,100)

Fitzpatrick could be the value play at DraftKings in Week 4. Quarterbacks have drilled the Seahawks in each game (29.50, 39.55, and 35.20 fantasy points), leading to 1,392 combined yards and eight touchdowns. Their secondary has been crushed by wide receivers (27/401/2, 23/330, and 26/405/3). In his only home start, Fitzpatrick passed for 328 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills. The Dolphins’ offense continues to improve, which puts them in play this week in the daily games.

Derek Carr, LV (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,900)

For the third straight game, Carr completed over 73.0 percent of his passes with overall strength in his yards per pass attempt (7.8). He hasn’t thrown an interception while picking up six touchdowns. The Bills’ defense struggled in all areas in the last two wins in Miami and at home vs. the Rams. They allowed over 300 yards passing in back-to-back games (328/2 and 321/1) with rushers gaining 4.6 yards per carry. Las Vegas should run the ball well, and the Raiders will also allow success vs. the run. I don’t expect Henry Ruggs or Bryan Edwards to play, which hurts the passing game.

Daniel Jones, NYG (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,600)

Through three games, Jones already has six turnovers (four interceptions and two fumbles). He’s gaining only 6.2 yards per pass attempt with no touchdowns in back-to-back games. In Week 3, Jones struggled against a 49ers defense that lost two of their top defensive lineup while also playing without CB Richard Sherman. The Rams have the top pass rusher in the NFL, but they only have seven sacks on the year. Los Angeles does risk vs. the run (4.8 yards per carry) with four rushing touchdowns allowed. CB Jalen Ramsey should take away WR Darius Slayton, leaving Jones with an aging Golden Tate and Evan Engram to move the ball. Buffalo did beat LA for 311 passing yards and four touchdowns, but the Giants don’t have the weapons to predict success in this matchup.

MORE: Week 4 Rankings, Articles, Reports & Tools Hub

Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,600)

The Ravens’ express train to the Super Bowl fell off the tracks in Week 3. Patrick Mahomes won the fantasy points battle 43.85 to 16.15. Over the first three games, Jackson doesn’t have a rushing touchdown while attempting only 25.7 passes per game. His completion rate (68.8) is ahead of 2019 (66.1) while trailing slightly in his yards per pass attempt (7.5 to 7.8) and yards per rush (5.7 to 6.9). Washington may be without rookie DE Chase Young who left last week’s game with a groin issue. Kyler Murray had success on the ground (8/67/2) vs. this defense, and Washington gave up two passing touchdowns in each game this year. Jackson will be motivated to pick up Baltimore and carry them on his back this week. A high floor player, but he needs to throw the ball better to regain his elite form.

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