Week 7 NFL DFS Reports
Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,700)
After five games, Wilson gained 1,655 combined yards with 19 touchdowns and three interceptions. He leads the NFL in scoring (33.08 FPPG) in PPR leagues with a low of 25.50 fantasy points. Wilson also had three impact games (35.00, 37.30, and 39.95 fantasy points). In 2019, he passed for 409 yards and two touchdowns in two games vs. the Cardinals. Arizona ranks 8th in quarterback defense (19.96 FPPG), with the Panthers having the most success (308 combined yards with three touchdowns). The Cardinals played three bottom tier passing teams (SF, WAS, and NYJ), plus Dallas played last week with their back up quarterback. Playing great, but his ticket can’t come in every week. The Cardinals did lose their best pass rusher (Chandler Jones) in Week 5.
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,800)
Allen started the year with three impact games (33.30, 38.65, and 36.35 fantasy points), but his production regressed in his last three starts (28.40, 20.95, and 17.30 fantasy points). He has a floor of two touchdowns in each contest while trailing in his value in the run game (37/143/3). In his only game vs. the Jets in 2019, Allen gained 292 combined yards with two touchdowns while posting a great game in Week 1 (33.30 fantasy points). New York is league average defending running backs (22.60 fantasy points). They allow 8.1 yards per pass attempt with quarterbacks tossing 11 touchdowns. Game flow and game score may lead to less of a battle on the scoreboard and more runs.
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,400/FD – $9,000)
Even with success in 2020 (1,864 combined yards with 17 touchdowns and one interception), Mahomes only ranks third in quarterback scoring (29.41 FPPG). He has one impact game (43.85 fantasy points) while scoring over 30.00 fantasy points in two games (30.50 and 34.10 fantasy points). Last year he left his game early against the Broncos with 351 combined yards with two touchdowns in his matchup at home. Denver sits 23rd in quarterback defense (24.00 FPPG). Each opponent scored a minimum of 21.50 fantasy points, with Pittsburgh (311/2) and Tampa (297/3) having the best success. Denver will try to rush the ball to slow down the clock, but the Broncos did show failure in three games vs. wide receivers (21/250/2, 10/149/3, and 18/208). Mahomes is in play due to his upside in passing weapons.
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $7,100/FD – $8,400)
Murray pushed to second in quarterback scoring (30.06 FPPG) after delivering four games with over 29.50 fantasy points. His higher floor this year is tied to growth and improvement in the run game (51/370/6). In Week 6, Murray had his success in the deep passing game (10.3 yards per pass attempt with seven completions over 20 yards). Last year he gained 268 combined yards with a touchdown against the Seahawks. Seattle has the second-worst quarterback defense (29.87 FPPG) with failure in three games (ATL – 401/, NE – 377 combined yards and two touchdowns, and DAL – 472/3). The Seahawks were drilled in two contests by wide receivers (27/401/2 and 26/405/3). Murray will be a top quarterback in Week 7.
Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,100)
Rodgers went from a four-game stud (1,214/13) to dud in Week 6 (160 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions). Rodgers had two impact games (364/4 and 327/4) with 18 completions over 20 yards. Houston fell to 17th quarterback defense (23.26 FPPG) after getting drilled by the Titans in Week 6 (364/4). The Texans struggled against the run (5.4 yards per rush), with running backs scoring nine touchdowns. Green Bay will have success on the ground, which may steal away Rodgers upside in this matchup.
Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,000)
After a slow start to the year, Watson moved to seventh in quarterback scoring (25.53 FPPG). He passed for 300 yards or more in his last three starts with strength in his previous two weeks (384/3 and 361/4). His yards per pass attempts (8.9) moved to a career-high while having 23 completions over 20 yards (only 26 in 2019). Green Bay ranks 11th in quarterback defense (20.76 FPPG), with no team passing for over 300 yards. The Saints had the most success (288/3). Not the best matchup, especially if Green Bay runs the ball well.
Matt Ryan, ATL (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,800)
The Falcons’ offense ended their three-game slump with a 40 spot against the Vikings. Ryan finished with 371 passing yards and four touchdowns. His other game of value (273/4) came in Week 2. The health of Julio Jones led to him being playing well (8/137/2) after battling a hamstring issue over the previous three weeks. Detroit has yet to allow over 300 yards passing to a quarterback, with the Bears posting the best game (242/3). Atlanta has the tools to score, plus their defense will give up points.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (DK – $6,600)
The Steelers are 5-0 while playing four straight games at home. Roethlisberger passed for over 300 yards in one game. Pittsburgh played from the lead last week, which led to only 22 pass attempts and a short game (162/1). His play was only steady over the first four weeks (229/3, 311/2, 237/2, and 239/3). Tennessee struggled in three games vs. quarterbacks (JAC – 339/3, MIN – 251/3, and HOU – 335/4). The Titans will score, which means Pittsburgh will need to throw in the game. Tennessee gave up over 200 yards to wide receivers in each of their last four contests (17/225/1, 11/211/2, 26/240/1, and 20/236/3). Call me intrigued as Roethlisberger will be owned at a lower percentage.
Matthew Stafford, DET (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,300)
Over the first five games, Stafford sits in quarterback scoring (20.44 FPPG) while failing to post an impact game (297/1, 244/2, 270/2, 206/3, and 223/1). The Lions averaged only 31.5 pass attempts per game over the last four weeks, which is part of their failure. The Falcons allowed over 300 passing yards to each quarterback they faced with an average of three passing touchdowns per week. Five quarterbacks have impact games (SEA – 351/4, DAL – 468/4, CHI – 358/4, GB – 327/4, and MIN – 343/3). Stafford will be an easy player to identify this week, and I expect his best game of the season.
Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,500)
Herbert jumped many quarterbacks with his success over the last two games (290/3 and 264/4). Over his first four NFL starts, he passed for 1,195 yards and nine touchdowns with 14 completions over 20 yards. He’s gaining 8.5 yards per pass attempt with strength in his completion rate (68.8). The Jaguars allowed over 300 yards to three quarterbacks with two disaster games (239/4 and 359/3). Jacksonville only has four sacks with risk defending the run (4.6 yards per rush and eight touchdowns). His path will draw some interest in Week 7 at DraftKings.
Cam Newton, NE (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,600)
The Newton supporters may have left the building after coming up empty in passing yards (162/1 and 157/0) in his last two games. He continues to run the ball well (45/225/5). The Patriots have below-par talent at wide receiver, and Julian Edelman doesn’t look healthy. San Francisco held opposing quarterbacks to 230 passing yards or fewer in five games with minimal yards per passing attempt (6.7). The Dolphins beat the 49ers for 350 yards and three touchdowns. Tough to get excited here with both teams expected to run the ball a lot.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,300)
Tannehill moved into the must-start category for me in the season-long leagues. He has three impact games (239/4, 237/4, and 364/4). This week, he should have his full receiving core if the injury to Jonnu Smith is minor. Tannehill is on pace for 4,624 combined yards with 45 touchdowns. Pittsburgh has a top pass rush (23 sacks) with no quarterbacks passing for over 280 yards and over two touchdowns. Tannehill seems to be against the grain despite the Titans scoring 37 points per game over their last four weeks.
Drew Brees, NO (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,700)
On Tuesday in Week 7, we don’t know if Michael Thomas will play on Sunday, which would help the value of Brees. After five games, he sits 17th in quarterback scoring (21.13 FPPG) with one playable game (288/3). Brees is on pace for 4,259 passing yards with 29 touchdowns. In 2019, he passed for 564 yards and six touchdowns in two games against the Panthers. Carolina allows 6.1 yards per attempt, with one team passing for over 300 yards. His floor tends to be 300 yards and three touchdowns at home. It’s all about the health of Thomas in this decision.
Andy Dalton, DAL (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,200)
Dalton was unimpressive (266/1) despite attempting 54 passes in his first start as the replacement for Dak Prescott. He gained only 4.9 yards per pass attempt in a game where the Cowboys chased on the scoreboard again. Washington gave up two passing touchdowns in their first five games, with the Rams posting the best game (309/2). Only a gamble until we see his success on the field.
Gardner Minshew, JAC (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,200)
Over his last four starts, Minshew has a combined five touchdowns while passing for over 300 yards three times on the year (339/3, 351/2, and 301/2). His yards per pass attempts regressed in his last two games (6.1 and 5.5). The Chargers gave up over 300 yards in three of their previous five games (302/2, 369/5, and 325/1), but they scored short points in three of those games (13, 14, and 16). His wide receiver core can surprise, but Jacksonville needs to play better offensively.
Teddy Bridgewater, CAR (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,800)
Bridgewater came up short vs. the Bears (216/0) in Week 6, which came after two productive games (308/3 and 313/2). He sits 22nd in quarterback scoring (20.32 FPPG). His completion rate (70.5) remains an edge while gaining 8.1 yards per pass attempt. New Orleans played well vs. the run (3.6 yards per pass attempt) while allowing three more passing touchdowns in their last four games. Even so, no opponent has passed for over 300 yards. Bridgewater has depth in his receiving core while playing his former team. Worth a team or two in GPPs at DraftKings.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,000)
Mayfield came into Week 6 with questions about his health. After a pair of interceptions, Cleveland hooked him early in the second half. In Week 2, Mayfield passed for 219 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals at home. Cincinnati played four of their past five games on the road, with two teams passing for over 300 yards (JAC – 351/1 and IND – 371/3). Cleveland wants to run the ball, which does limit their passing attempts. I’ll pass, but he does have an outside chance to shine in this matchup.
Joe Burrow, CIN (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,100)
Burrow passed for over 300 yards in four of his first six NFL starts, but he has four games with one touchdown or fewer. His best game came in Week 2 (316/3) against the Browns while being helped by a season-high 61 passes. Cleveland struggled in one other game (502/4) defending quarterbacks. They allow 7.3 yards per pass attempt with 13 passing touchdowns allowed. I like his wide receivers, and a home game should lead to better play.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,600)
After missing two games with an ankle issue and struggling in limited playing time in Week 5 (77 passing yards with no TDs and two Ints), Garoppolo looked sharp in Week 6 (268/3). In his three starts other than Week 5, he tossed seven touchdowns with no interceptions. The Patriots struggled to defend Russell Wilson in Week 2 (288/5), with quarterbacks tossing only four touchdowns in their other four games. The 49ers have a much healthier receiving core, but they did lose their top running back last week.
Kyle Allen, WAS (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,700)
In his first full game, Allen passed for 280 yards with a pair of scores. On the year, Washington gained only 6.1 yards per pass attempt with six passing touchdowns. The Cowboys held quarterbacks to under 225 yards passing in their last three games, but they did give up three touchdowns twice over this span. Dallas also failed to defend the pass in Week 2 (ATL – 273/4) and Week 3 (SEA – 315/5). The Cowboys allow 36 points per game, which invites upside for Allen.
Drew Lock, DEN (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,900)
In his two starts, Lock passed for 405 combined yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. In 2019, he passed for 208 yards with no touchdowns against the Chiefs. Kansas City struggled in only one game defending quarterbacks (LV – 347/3). Over their other five matchups, quarterbacks threw for under 200 yards in three games with six more touchdowns.
Week 7 NFL DFS Reports
Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,700)
After five games, Wilson gained 1,655 combined yards with 19 touchdowns and three interceptions. He leads the NFL in scoring (33.08 FPPG) in PPR leagues with a low of 25.50 fantasy points. Wilson also had three impact games (35.00, 37.30, and 39.95 fantasy points). In 2019, he passed for 409 yards and two touchdowns in two games vs. the Cardinals. Arizona ranks 8th in quarterback defense (19.96 FPPG), with the Panthers having the most success (308 combined yards with three touchdowns). The Cardinals played three bottom tier passing teams (SF, WAS, and NYJ), plus Dallas played last week with their back up quarterback. Playing great, but his ticket can’t come in every week. The Cardinals did lose their best pass rusher (Chandler Jones) in Week 5. Subscribe for full article
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