Week 7 NFL DFS Reports
George Kittle, SF (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,100)
Kittle has been exceptional in two of his previous three games (15/183/1 and 7/109/1) while averaging 11 targets per game over this stretch. He posted an identical catchline (4/44) in Week 1 and Week 4, with the latter coming in a game where Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t look ready to return to game action. The Patriots have yet to allow over 13.40 fantasy points to tight ends. They rank fifth in tight end defense (15/200/1) with success against Mike Gesicki (3/30), Travis Kelce (3/70), and Darren Waller (2/9). New England will look to take Kittle away from the 49ers’ passing game. The question here is the personnel to keep Kittle in check. He is overpriced at DraftKings based on his matchup.
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,900)
After six games, Kelce averages 18.83 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, which ranks sixth at the wide receiver position and seventh at running back. He played well in back-to-back games (8/108/1 and 5/65/2), putting him on pace for 99 catches for 1,253 yards and 13 touchdowns. This season the Chiefs seem to want to throw inside the five-yard line, which invites more passing touchdowns than rushing scores in close. In 2019, Kelce had one big game (11/142) against the Broncos at home. Denver is league average vs. the tight end position (27/244/2), but they did struggle in two games (TEN – 7/42/2 and TB (9/97). In their other three contents, the Broncos played three opponents (PIT, NYJ, and NE) with weak tight end options. High floor player, but his salary requires over 25 fantasy points to fill his salary bucket.
T.J. Hockenson, DET (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,900)
The play of Hockenson is more consistent than his rookie season, but the Lions won’t feature him in the passing game. He scored between 9.30 and 10.90 fantasy points in four games, with his best showing in Week 1 (5/56/1). Hockenson has five targets or fewer in four games. Three scores have helped his playable value in the season-long contests. The Falcons struggled in five games (SEA – 7/41/1, DAL – 11/122/1, CHI – 9/75/2, GB – 6/98/3, and MIN – 7/102), leading to them ranking 30th in tight end defense (40/438/7). With Marvin Jones nicked up and not playing well, Hockenson looks poised to post his best game of the year, especially if Detroit chases on the scoreboard.
Noah Fant, DEN (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,000)
After a bye week and a missed game, Fant turned in a full practice on Thursday, putting him on track to play on Sunday. Over his first four weeks, he caught 19 of his 27 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns with two playable games (5/81/1 and 4/57/1). The Chiefs held him to three catches for 63 yards in two contests in 2020. Kansas City allowed between 12.70 and 18.40 fantasy points to tight ends in four games. Their success in Week 4 (NE – 0/0) and Week 6 (BUF – 1/7) helped them to the 11th place ranking in tight end defense (22/229/3). Tim Patrick may have jumped him in the target pie for Denver, and Fant needs to prove he can play at a high-level in a big game. Game flow points to the Broncos throwing more this week.
Jonnu Smith, TEN (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,200)
Smith left last week’s game 29 plays (39 percent of the tight end plays) with one catch for 13 yards and a sore ankle. He sat on the sidelines and watched his replacement (Anthony Firkser) post an impact game (8/113/1). Smith was able to complete a full practice on Thursday, setting up a start on Sunday. He remains third in tight end scoring (14.48 FPPG) with two impact games (4/84/2 and 5/40/2). This season Tennessee’s tight ends have 41 catches for 443 yards and seven touchdowns. Pittsburgh sits seventh in tight end defense (20/218/1) with a low catch rate (50 percent). The Steelers have 23 sacks, which may require Tennessee to use Smith for more blocking in this matchup. Not the right matchup for DraftKings.
Robert Tonyan, GB (DK – $4,600/FD – $6,000)
After a breakout game (6/98/3) and success in Week 3 (5/50/1), Tonyan managed only three catches for 25 yards against Tampa. He left the game early with an ankle issue that may keep him out of this week’s game. Over his last four games, Tonyan has 16 catches for 198 yards and five touchdowns. Houston ranks 22nd in tight defense (35/376/3) after getting buried by the Titans’ tight ends in Week 6 (11/136/1). I need more info about his health, but I don’t see a reason to take the risk in the daily games.
Hunter Henry, LAC (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,800)
The success of Justin Herbert hasn’t resulted in Henry delivering an impact game. He has 22 catches for 268 yards and a touchdown on seven targets per game on the year. Over his last two weeks on the road, Henry only had six catches for 62 yards and one touchdown. Jacksonville gave up double-digit fantasy points to tight ends in each game with one disaster game (TEN – 8/129/2). They rank 25th in tight end defense (24/368/5). Henry is priced low enough where he could fill his salary bucket without scoring. The Jaguars won’t game plan to stop him, which is a positive for his upside.
Hayden Hurst, ATL (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,600)
Hurst scored a late touchdown last week, setting up the seventh-highest game (4/57/1) at tight end in Week 6 in PPR leagues. He only had seven catches for 60 yards over his previous three games and a touchdown on 15 targets. His only other playable game (5/72/1) came in Week 2. The Lions moved to second in tight end scoring (10/96/1 on 22 targets) after holding them to short games over the last three weeks (3/35, 1/7, and 0/0). Detroit has yet to allow over three catches or over 35 yards to any team. Their success was helped by facing five teams (CHI, GB, ARI, NO – no Jared Cook, and JAC) with weak tight ends. A possible shootout game gives Hurst a chance at repeated success.
Jared Cook, NO (DK – $4,300/FD – $6,100)
Cook returned from his groin issue in Week 5, leading to two catches for 52 yards on three targets. He has 11 catches for 166 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets over his four games of action. Last year, Cook played well at home against the Panthers (6/99/1) with a steady showing on the road (2/44/1). Carolina ranks 12th in tight end defense (29/222/1), with no tight end gaining over 55 yards. Cook must be in play based on his 2019 resume and his low salary.
Darren Fells, HOU (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,300)
With Jordan Akins injured, Fells delivered back-to-back productive games (2/57/1 and 6/85/1). He’s been on the field for over 80 percent of the Texans’ snap at tight end over the last three weeks. Even with a bump in value, Fells only has one game with over four targets on the year. Green Bay held tight ends to fewer than 11.00 fantasy points over the first four weeks. They rank 14th in tight end defense (21/271/1) with regression defending the Bucs (6/81/1) in Week 6. Fells in a low-volume player who needs to score to be in the mix at this level.
Eric Ebron, PIT (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,100)
Pittsburgh still hasn’t found their rhythm in the passing game, which leaves minimal chances for Ebron. Over five games, he has 16 catches for 165 yards and a touchdown on 24 targets. His best game (5/52/1) came in Week 3. Tennessee fell to 26th in tight end defense (23/262/4) with three teams scoring over 20.00 fantasy points (DEN – 7/75/1, JAC – 7/76/1, and HOU – 6/85/1). The Steelers should score in this game with a competitive battle on the scoreboard. Ebron could work as a salary saver at DraftKings.
Dalton Schultz, DAL (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,200)
After another poor showing against the Cardinals, fantasy owners with Cowboys’ players have been heading for higher ground this week. I’ve seen many trade offers to sell Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper after Andy Dalton struggled. With that in mind, Schultz would be the first player kicked to the curb in the season-long games. Last week he caught four of his five targets for 35 yards, which came after an empty game vs. the Giants (1/6). Washington does have risk defending tight ends (32/386/5) with three teams (PHI – 11/119/2, BAL – 4/66/2, and LAR – 6/102) having success. Schultz is too far down the target food chain in Dallas for me to trust until we see more out of Dalton.
Greg Olsen, SEA (DK – $3,600/FD – $4,900)
When doing the wide receiver research this week for DraftKings, I didn’t get a good feeling about DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett against the Cardinals based on their last success against them in 2019. This finding left me curious to see if Olsen would be the player to own the Seahawks’ passing game in Week 7. His only touchdown came in Week 1 with a string of short games (4/24/1, 0/0, 5/61, 5/35, and 2/20). In 2019, Olsen had his best showing in Arizona (6/75/2). The Cardinals had the worst tight end defense in 2019, but they improved to 13th (28/251/2 on 44 targets), with the Lions posting the best results (7/81/1). Arizona did face three opponents (WAS, CAR, and NYJ) with emptiness at tight end. Olsen has an excellent chance of scoring this week, and I expect him to have his best opportunity of the year.
Week 7 NFL DFS Reports
George Kittle, SF (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,100)
Kittle has been exceptional in two of his previous three games (15/183/1 and 7/109/1) while averaging 11 targets per game over this stretch. He posted an identical catchline (4/44) in Week 1 and Week 4, with the latter coming in a game where Jimmy Garoppolo didn’t look ready to return to game action. The Patriots have yet to allow over 13.40 fantasy points to tight ends. They rank fifth in tight end defense (15/200/1) with success against Mike Gesicki (3/30), Travis Kelce (3/70), and Darren Waller (2/9). New England will look to take Kittle away from the 49ers’ passing game. The question here is the personnel to keep Kittle in check. He is overpriced at DraftKings based on his matchup. Subscribe for full article
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